Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Wiz where's my svr? It's that menacing line of sprinkles in ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 It's that menacing line of sprinkles in ENY Some hail at the wx service in BGM. That must be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 The main thing I took from yesterday's NC storms was ...don't take refuge in a Lowes Building. Did y'all see this video from yesterday? The guy casually talking on the phone as the TOR goes right over his car..LOL insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Some hail at the wx service in BGM. That must be it Today seems like it's the perfect day for you to upload the Youtube videos..since it's slow in the wx dept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I can't see storms as a serious threat here with a temperature of 48. Some hail at the wx service in BGM. That must be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 That's a pretty strong short wave moving across the lakes. some strikes now showing up in the rain band near syr. The HRRR is pretty impressive between 22z and 02z this evening across VT/NH and wrn/cntrl mass. It's probably overdone with the loss of daytime heating...but temps got into the 50s to around 60 today in a lot of areas. With -32C temps at 500 I could see some storms making it to at least the CT river. With large dewpoint depressions in place...i could see some wind in spots...but again...timing is a limiting factor for new england...may be a bit too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Wiz where's my svr? Its an evening event I thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 That's a pretty strong short wave moving across the lakes. some strikes now showing up in the rain band near syr. The HRRR is pretty impressive between 22z and 02z this evening across VT/NH and wrn/cntrl mass. It's probably overdone with the loss of daytime heating...but temps got into the 50s to around 60 today in a lot of areas. With -32C temps at 500 I could see some storms making it to at least the CT river. With large dewpoint depressions in place...i could see some wind in spots...but again...timing is a limiting factor for new england...may be a bit too late. Yeah...a few hours sooner and I think it would've been more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yeah...a few hours sooner and I think it would've been more interesting. I'm going to keep an eye on it though...low prob of SPS type stuff...especially out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 That's a pretty strong short wave moving across the lakes. some strikes now showing up in the rain band near syr. The HRRR is pretty impressive between 22z and 02z this evening across VT/NH and wrn/cntrl mass. It's probably overdone with the loss of daytime heating...but temps got into the 50s to around 60 today in a lot of areas. With -32C temps at 500 I could see some storms making it to at least the CT river. With large dewpoint depressions in place...i could see some wind in spots...but again...timing is a limiting factor for new england...may be a bit too late. Yeah mid level lapse rates are very steep with the cold pool moving in and water vapor loop shows the s/w quite well. Maybe a 45 knot wind gust in the Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'm going to keep an eye on it though...low prob of SPS type stuff...especially out your way. Is convection aided by upslope as much as snow? ie terrain enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 I'm going to keep an eye on it though...low prob of SPS type stuff...especially out your way. The hires WRFs healthily swing a line through here 00-03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Is convection aided by upslope as much as snow? ie terrain enhanced It's been documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 BGM 44kt ALB 43kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wiz where's my svr? It's that menacing line of sprinkles in ENY Some hail at the wx service in BGM. That must be it Wiz said chance of TStorms, both of you Phail, TStorms in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wiz said chance of TStorms, both of you Phail, TStorms in progress Yeah we are having pretty intense lightning and thunder down here in Westchester...the cells near the CT shoreline look reasonably intense. I'm surprised since it's only 47F but these are some decent boomers, Wiz FTW. Rain is only light, luckily, since we had over 2" rainfall last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Looks like the SPC SREF actually hit the area of where the storms would develop pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Wiz said chance of TStorms, both of you Phail, TStorms in progress Fail? I had thunder in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Fail? I had thunder in the forecast Oh just read what you wrote here, do not watch the news unless it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 lol more laughing about this post. Classic. Anyway Wednesday could be an active day if we warm sector. Euro is toasty... NAM/GFS are cool. We've been upgraded to a SEE TEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 AWT Wed is the severe wx day as we warm sector with temps near 70 and dews near 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 AWT Wed is the severe wx day as we warm sector with temps near 70 and dews near 60 ballsy forecast. GFS and NAM are chilly in fact NAM 2m temps are in the mid 40s on Wednesday! Euro is much warmer with the warm front plowing on through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 ballsy forecast. GFS and NAM are chilly in fact NAM 2m temps are in the mid 40s on Wednesday! Euro is much warmer with the warm front plowing on through. HMMMM..I wonder which one will be right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 HMMMM..I wonder which one will be right lol NAM actually worked out really well in the last situation like this last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 NAM actually worked out really well in the last situation like this last Monday. NAM never had us warm sectoring though and we did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 NAM actually worked out really well in the last situation like this last Monday. Don't have time to make much of a post b/c I have to be at work at 8:00 but I didn't see the Euro (which sounds good to me) but the NAM/GFS are really gung-ho on not bringing the warm front all the way through and right now I would bet my chickens on that not really occurring. I think the warm front may get hung up somewhere across our region...plus I'm not a big fan of how the system is actually weakening as it moves through the upper-midwest and into Canada. I could see some severe potential across parts of PA/NJ and down into MD though, especially just south of the warm front if they can destabilize enough but up for our area I'm not too excited, at least right now. While we can get severe in April it's very difficult and this type of setup is not something that would really be conducive for severe wx in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 NAM never had us warm sectoring though and we did NAM early on kept us cool but 48 hours out it had a pretty good handle. GFS was far too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 NAM early on kept us cool but 48 hours out it had a pretty good handle. The Euro was far too warm. gfs soundings look pretty tasty for PA/NJ for a tornado threat. CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg with some steep mid-level lapse rates and backed surface flow with an LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 gfs soundings look pretty tasty for PA/NJ for a tornado threat. CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg with some steep mid-level lapse rates and backed surface flow with an LLJ. Indeed. Hodographs look great. NW NJ into E and C PA could rock. Backed winds take us pretty much out of the game with a marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 ballsy forecast. GFS and NAM are chilly in fact NAM 2m temps are in the mid 40s on Wednesday! Euro is much warmer with the warm front plowing on through. This is the exact opposite of a few days ago, where the GFS plowed the front through and the euro kept it south....go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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