free_man Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 convection over Upper Lakes is forecasted to move across S CA into Upstate NY and NNE/CNE this afternoon into tonight. Will it be able to round the ridge and dive SE into SNE? Will it survive? Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The SPC SREF does get over 500 J/KG of MUcape across the entire area...a decent amount of lift too with fairly steep ML lapse rates so some of this convection should survive and impact some of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 The SPC SREF does get over 500 J/KG of MUcape across the entire area...a decent amount of lift too with fairly steep ML lapse rates so some of this convection should survive and impact some of the region. Just a few downpours and vivid lightning would be nice. It's been somewhat dry, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Meh lol. yeah. congrats on a rumble of thunder and a flash of lightning in april. i'm going to get my camera ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Just a few downpours and vivid lightning would be nice. It's been somewhat dry, too. Yeah that would be pretty awesome...elevated convection can be extremely fun, especially at night...the Cloud-to-cloud lightning can really light things up for miles and miles and for a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 The SPC SREF does get over 500 J/KG of MUcape across the entire area...a decent amount of lift too with fairly steep ML lapse rates so some of this convection should survive and impact some of the region. It's not the most impressive instability push, but a decent push of KI on the edge of an 850mb jet so I think the chance is there. I'm looking at the potential now, since I have the wonderful northeast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 It's not the most impressive instability push, but a decent push of KI on the edge of an 850mb jet so I think the chance is there. I'm looking at the potential now, since I have the wonderful northeast today. Nice. I really haven't looked in full detail...just at a couple of things so I'll be in danger of being wrong The nose of the LLJ can really help things out though if it's timed correctly, especially if it's associated with a good deal of WAA which is the case here...which also would explain the good push of KI along the edge of the 850mb jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 The models always seem to over-push waa and warm bias SNE this time of year. The activity appears to be further south than many of the global models that had action entering NNY and NNE earlier runs. If anything this activity will end up closer to Wiz than here (if it holds together). not really looking too promising right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 lol. yeah. congrats on a rumble of thunder and a flash of lightning in april. i'm going to get my camera ready. better than 300 weenies staying up weenieing at models for seven days, over a slushy couple inches, that is gone before the sun rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Keep our fingers crossed. Could use a little rain. Put a new Davis Weather Station up 2 weeks ago and it has hardly rained outside of the thunderstorms from the 4th. Good to have a post that does not deal with frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 Keep our fingers crossed. Could use a little rain. Put a new Davis Weather Station up 2 weeks ago and it has hardly rained outside of the thunderstorms from the 4th. Good to have a post that does not deal with frozen precipitation. Nice, which Davis station? Is your data broadcasted online? Mine seems to not want to connect to wxunderground, not sure why. It worked for several months. Radar looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 Nice, which Davis station? Is your data broadcasted online? Mine seems to not want to connect to wxunderground, not sure why. It worked for several months. Radar looks ugly. If anything does occur, it might not develop until very late night, so current radar trends might be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 10, 2011 Author Share Posted April 10, 2011 If anything does occur, it might not develop until very late night, so current radar trends might be deceiving. Yeah that makes sense given the setup and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 GFS looks like a decent severe event possible just west of us in eastern NY. Maybe adjacent W NE gets into the action if the warmth overachieves tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 GFS looks like a decent severe event possible just west of us in eastern NY. Maybe adjacent W NE gets into the action if the warmth overachieves tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 10, 2011 Share Posted April 10, 2011 spc seems to think so to.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html GFS looks like a decent severe event possible just west of us in eastern NY. Maybe adjacent W NE gets into the action if the warmth overachieves tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Thunder and lightning here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Flash of light and *BOOM* Very close and loud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 625 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT * AT 622 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR BOMBAY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... NORTH BANGOR...MALONE...CHASM FALLS...BRAINARDSVILLE...MERRILL... LYON MOUNTAIN...DANNEMORA...CADYVILLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Our overnight groomers reported thunder and lightning last night... knocked out our radio repeaters. Its making for a fun morning of communication between operations staff. Looking forward to some more storms possibly today... never been skiing in a thunderstorm but we'll be monitoring it closely. You do not want to be on a metal chairlift at 4,000ft in a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 625 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT * AT 622 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR BOMBAY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... NORTH BANGOR...MALONE...CHASM FALLS...BRAINARDSVILLE...MERRILL... LYON MOUNTAIN...DANNEMORA...CADYVILLE... Wow, bummer. Snow is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I see on the Stowe website they still had 100 inches at the stake as of yesterday. Our overnight groomers reported thunder and lightning last night... knocked out our radio repeaters. Its making for a fun morning of communication between operations staff. Looking forward to some more storms possibly today... never been skiing in a thunderstorm but we'll be monitoring it closely. You do not want to be on a metal chairlift at 4,000ft in a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 I see on the Stowe website they still had 100 inches at the stake as of yesterday. Yep... its dropped to 90" now though once all the storm snow from the past 7-10 days fully settled out. Today's the first day I can see a noticable difference in snowpack down here in the base area at 1,500ft. The last 36 hours finally ripened it up enough to melt. It was amazing though that Thursday-Saturday were very warm but well below freezing at night... so snow melt was minimal at best. The last two nights though failed to drop to freezing and without locking up the snowpack for 12 hours a day, it starts to melt. Down in town I really noticed it driving to work this morning. The fields along the road have gotten beaten back quite a bit. Still solid snow cover on any north-facing aspects and anything somewhat sheltered by the sun is still snow covered. However, from about 1,300ft and up its still winter with solid snowpack. Thunderstorms: We are completely shut-down at the ski resort right now. Vivid lightning, and holy crap are these some high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What elevation is the Mansfield stake situated at? Yep... its dropped to 90" now though once all the storm snow from the past 7-10 days fully settled out. Today's the first day I can see a noticable difference in snowpack down here in the base area at 1,500ft. The last 36 hours finally ripened it up enough to melt. It was amazing though that Thursday-Saturday were very warm but well below freezing at night... so snow melt was minimal at best. The last two nights though failed to drop to freezing and without locking up the snowpack for 12 hours a day, it starts to melt. Down in town I really noticed it driving to work this morning. The fields along the road have gotten beaten back quite a bit. Still solid snow cover on any north-facing aspects and anything somewhat sheltered by the sun is still snow covered. However, from about 1,300ft and up its still winter with solid snowpack. Thunderstorms: We are completely shut-down at the ski resort right now. Vivid lightning, and holy crap are these some high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 What elevation is the Mansfield stake situated at? 3,700ft We are getting raked right now...K5 and W8 ripped right overhead. We recorded 54mph on a lift tower at 3,600ft and 46mph at 1,600ft. Lightning was absolutely incredible and we saw a few strikes on the mountain. Employees in our safe area at the top of the mountain are reporting incredible conditions with wind, hail, and lightening. I can only imagine what that would've looked like at 3,600ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Why is this happening to me? I'm half way to key west sitting here in the Charlotte airport examining a severe storm warning just to my north back home FULL TILT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Bow echo moving through northern NH... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 823 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... CENTRAL GRAFTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... * UNTIL 915 AM EDT * AT 815 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF FRANCONIA...OR NEAR WOODSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 914 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 MEZ012-018>020-NHZ003>006-009-111415- ANDROSCOGGIN-BELKNAP-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-NORTHERN CARROLL-NORTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN OXFORD- 914 AM EDT MON APR 11 2011 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BELKNAP COUNTY...ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY...OXFORD COUNTY...CARROLL COUNTY...GRAFTON COUNTY...YORK COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY THROUGH 1015 AM EDT... AT 913 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF FRYEBURG TO 5 MILES WEST OF PLYMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND INTERVALE...GLEN...ECHO LAKE STATE PARK...STOWE...WATERVILLE VALLEY...NORTH CONWAY...HEBRON...GROTON...CHATHAM AND LOVELL THROUGH 1015 AM EDT. SMALL HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. I can tell you 1st hand we have one of those cells just got here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Why is this happening to me? I'm half way to key west sitting here in the Charlotte airport examining a severe storm warning just to my north back home FULL TILT. I'd rather be at MM73 Annes Beach enjoying a mojito. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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