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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part II

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

No more tracking or following the storm until tomorrow 8:30 PM. Gonna be a tense 25 hours

Yeah. I'm all modeled out also

I'll just be following the strength overnight into tomorrow to see if it intensifies.

This storm will be bad but if she manages to pull a period of intensification off and ramps up to a solid cat 3 by tomorrow morning,

then we can worry about major wind damage in our parts.

Surge will be bad no matter what.

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coastalplainsnowman

coastalplainsnowman

Posted
Posted

I can't believe it. Utterly ridiculous.

I can't speak to whether it's ridiculous or not, but what's interesting is how the hype builds on itself. 'The MTA has NEVER shut down the whole system!' ' Nassau County NEVER evacuated everyone south of Sunrise!' as if that is automatically a sign of how bad the storm is versus a sign of how government is so much more (overly?) cautious and nanny-like now as compared to, say, 25 years ago.

The risk, as is often discussed in these boards, is that if this turns out to be less than expected and a real CAT 3 makes its way up here in a month, fewer people would heed the warnings. After all, could there really be more hype in the media and TWC than what we've seen?

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

I can't speak to whether it's ridiculous or not, but what's interesting is how the hype builds on itself. 'The MTA has NEVER shut down the whole system!' ' Nassau County NEVER evacuated everyone south of Sunrise!' as if that is automatically a sign of how bad the storm is versus a sign of how government is so much more (overly?) cautious and nanny-like now as compared to, say, 25 years ago.

The risk, as is often discussed in these boards, is that if this turns out to be less than expected and a real CAT 3 makes its way up here in a month, fewer people would heed the warnings. After all, could there really be more hype in the media and TWC than what we've seen?

agreed...but this is POST-katrina era here. and, this track is the worst case scenario, at least on some models. 1893 was the last time this potential track happened and we know what happened...so people are freaking out. But i will say, an east wind at 50-70 blowing the sound into the city, that scares the crap out of me.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

Just something I found that may allude to why our winds could be strong regardless of how strong Irene might be as she approaches our area

Early on Sept. 14, Tropical Storm Ike merged with a large cold front moving from west to east over the central U.S. and became extratropical. This deep low pressure continued toward the north-east spreading heavy rains and damaging winds with hurricane-force gusts across a large portion of the Midwest. It moved into Canada that night, giving strong winds and heavy rain across Southern Ontario and most of Quebec, before exiting into the Atlantic at the latitude of the Labrador Sea, early on the 16th.[2]

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mempho

mempho

Posted
Posted

I can't speak to whether it's ridiculous or not, but what's interesting is how the hype builds on itself. 'The MTA has NEVER shut down the whole system!' ' Nassau County NEVER evacuated everyone south of Sunrise!' as if that is automatically a sign of how bad the storm is versus a sign of how government is so much more (overly?) cautious and nanny-like now as compared to, say, 25 years ago.

The risk, as is often discussed in these boards, is that if this turns out to be less than expected and a real CAT 3 makes its way up here in a month, fewer people would heed the warnings. After all, could there really be more hype in the media and TWC than what we've seen?

I know nothing of the topography, but I do know that this situation reeks of a very large surge scenario.

Very large windfield. Formidable winds. Worst-case Track.

Katrina's surge >>>> Camille's surge.

Like the MS Gulf Coast, NYC is an extremely vulnerable place for surge (the others being the Chesapeake and Tampa IIRC).

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted

I can't speak to whether it's ridiculous or not, but what's interesting is how the hype builds on itself. 'The MTA has NEVER shut down the whole system!' ' Nassau County NEVER evacuated everyone south of Sunrise!' as if that is automatically a sign of how bad the storm is versus a sign of how government is so much more (overly?) cautious and nanny-like now as compared to, say, 25 years ago.

The risk, as is often discussed in these boards, is that if this turns out to be less than expected and a real CAT 3 makes its way up here in a month, fewer people would heed the warnings. After all, could there really be more hype in the media and TWC than what we've seen?

One word.......WORD.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Please, please, please can someone put A.J. Burnett in the path of the most perilous storm surge?

LOL what are you psychic or something? Or am I? Haha, see my post in the Yankee thread. I said that Burnett should join Noreaster27 in Howard Beach and they can both wait for that gusty seabreeze Noreaster thinks is coming tomorrow :P

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