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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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Local totals

dec0310_local.jpg

Now go catch some 8" gills on green lake for dinner :guitar:

12-02_Gill3.jpg

2.4" on the drive... Not sure what that stuff to the north offshore wants to do.. Wish it would decide because we want to go chop the tree down but I don't want to miss the snow if it does come on shore here.. Probably just wasting my time waiting for nothing and in the process aggravating the wife.

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I was thinking about that too. The down side is that you could build up a resistance to enjoying snow, because you get it so often. Where we live, in the snow deserts, because we see it so infrequently we appreciate it more. If I was getting a foot of snow every couple of days, I'm sad to say, I might get sick of it.

:lol: You guys crack me up. Snow deserts. Saying Toronto and Detroit see snow so infrequently is like saying Atlanta rarely gets hot in the summer, because its always hitting 100F+ in Dallas. In terms of # of days with snow falling, its probably actually pretty much the same in DTW and YYZ as in most snowbelts (outside northern MI), but obviously snowbelts get way more snow accumulation. But you want to know what living in most snowbelts would do? Snowlovers like us would actually be MORE pissy than where we live now. Lake snow bands can give someone 3 feet and someone 10 miles away nothing. Do you know what kind of mood I would be in if I got 2" of snow and Detroit got 2 feet!? :lmao:

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I've lived all my life in a place that averages 50" per season. An amount a nice upslope zone in a belt can get in a week. So I have no idea what it's like to get pelted nonstop for an entire winter. I know I'd love it initially, but after a couple of months, who knows? Especially since it's likely an area cutoff from civilization.

You know that 50 inches of Toronto snow is not the same as 50" of fluffy lake snow. You also know that lake belts dont get pelted nonstop for an entire winter. A good friend of mine grew up in SW MI in the HEART of the snowbelt in Eau Clair, and yes he has seen some crazy lake effect storms, but he has also seen the type of things I mentioned about (barely enough to cover his grass and his Grandmas house nearby had 3 feet of snow). Another good friend has a bf that lives in Grand Rapids. They commute each weekend, one weekend he comes here, the next she there etc. There have been times when GRR will have logged 3 times the snow that DTW did in the week but yet the snow on the ground to the casual observer (ie my friend) looks the same. Theres no doubt winter in the snowbelt is harsher than outside of it. But I dont think its AS different as you think, and I certainly dont think you'd get sick of snow. Now, snowbelts in the U.P..where the snow doesnt melt unlike the snowbelts of lower MI, IN, OH, PA, and NY...THAT would be one hell of a harsh winter.

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Perfect world I would live up by John Dee in winter and and Milwaukee in summer.

Still waiting on the band to the north... Looks like it finally might be making a move south and inland a little more.

Perfect world I'd have a place up north where I can visit anytime I want, but still probably live down here where these a lot more people/city action. Curious though, why on earth would you want to spend summer in MKE over the Keewenaw? So much more comfortable up north (less humidity).

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1202 PM CST SAT DEC 4 2010

...UPDATED TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS

OF THE AREA...

UPDATE

LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WERE INDICATING

THAT THE MODERATE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORTICITY

MAXIMUM HAS SHIFTED INTO ILLINOIS. STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM

THE NORTHEAST MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH HAS ALSO HELPED TO

DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS. VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 2 MILES

ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND ROCK/WALWORTH COUNTIES. CANCELLED ADVISORY

FOR ALL BUT ROCK...WALWORTH...WAUKESHA...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND

KENOSHA COUNTIES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

HOURS...AFFECTING MAINLY MILWAUKEE...RACINE...AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.

FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH IN THE 1000/850MB LAYER AND DELTA T

VALUES AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. LAKE INDUCED CAPES UP TO 300

J/KG ALSO SEEN ON LAKESHORE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HELPING KEEP

THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FEET. LOOK FOR ANOTHER

2 TO 4 INCHES IN THESE COUNTIES WITH THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT

SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD TURN DUE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE BY 00Z

SUNDAY...AS 1000/850MB WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR WAUKESHA AND WALWORTH GOING UNTIL

20Z...WATCHING TO SEE IF THE LAKE BANDS AFFECT THESE AREAS. KEPT

THE 00Z SUNDAY EXPIRATION TIME FOR MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA

COUNTIES.

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Perfect world I'd have a place up north where I can visit anytime I want, but still probably live down here where these a lot more people/city action. Curious though, why on earth would you want to spend summer in MKE over the Keewenaw? So much more comfortable up north (less humidity).

I've come to my senses I couldn't imagine living outside of MKE in summer no matter how much I know I love up north I guess is the short and simple answer. Couldn't imagine I would like any city more in the US than here in the summer. Heat doesn't really bother despite all my moaning about it and its actually welcomed when we actually use the lakes.. Wife gets 33 vacation days this yr so hopefully we can spend a lot more half days on the boat this summer. Nothing like 90/70 and sucking down brews on the lake.

I'm about ready to give up on the LES before the wife kills me. taking forever to get here and it looks like the better stuff stays a block out over the lake.

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I've come to my senses I couldn't imagine living outside of MKE in summer no matter how much I know I love up north I guess is the short and simple answer. Couldn't imagine I would like any city more in the US than here in the summer. Heat doesn't really bother despite all my moaning about it and its actually welcomed when we actually use the lakes.. Wife gets 33 vacation days this yr so hopefully we can spend a lot more half days on the boat this summer. Nothing like 90/70 and sucking down brews on the lake.

I'm about ready to give up on the LES before the wife kills me. taking forever to get here and it looks like the better stuff stays a block out over the lake.

That is true, really about the entire region. We really are so lucky to live in a place where there is so much natural water. Summer is alot nicer here than I make it out to be only because I hate the heat/humidity. Theres water everywhere.

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:lol: You guys crack me up. Snow deserts. Saying Toronto and Detroit see snow so infrequently is like saying Atlanta rarely gets hot in the summer, because its always hitting 100F+ in Dallas. In terms of # of days with snow falling, its probably actually pretty much the same in DTW and YYZ as in most snowbelts (outside northern MI), but obviously snowbelts get way more snow accumulation. But you want to know what living in most snowbelts would do? Snowlovers like us would actually be MORE pissy than where we live now. Lake snow bands can give someone 3 feet and someone 10 miles away nothing. Do you know what kind of mood I would be in if I got 2" of snow and Detroit got 2 feet!? :lmao:

I am having that pissy moment right now. The winds are going to come out of the north the next few days so we won't get much in snow. Ontonagon, Iron, and Marquette counties will be the winners with this. A lot of the snow we received during the Turkey day west wind event melted after it warmed up. I am itching to get my snowmobile out, but there is not enough snow. We don't even have enough to groom yet.

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I am having that pissy moment right now. The winds are going to come out of the north the next few days so we won't get much in snow. Ontonagon, Iron, and Marquette counties will be the winners with this. A lot of the snow we received during the Turkey day west wind event melted after it warmed up. I am itching to get my snowmobile out, but there is not enough snow. We don't even have enough to groom yet.

Yeah I was looking at a few webcams in the U.P. Bare ground in places now, plenty of snow in others. I know its hard, but sometimes patience gets rewarded real nicely :) .

Oh and snowstormcanuck, a little reverse psychology. You think you love snow now but if you lived in a snowbelt youd not like it as much. Well, a coworker of mine grew up in the snowbelt of the Keewenaw. And HATED snow. And some of the stories she has told of being snowed in almost sound unreal. She has lived downstate in the Detroit area for 20 years. So, while going from a place that averages well over 200" a winter to a place that averages 40-45" certainly is a world of difference for her, and she doesnt deny that. But she hates every inch of our snow as she did in the U.P. Two days ago, with 0.2" dusting of snow and the wind blowing briskly, she came into work and said "God I just HATE winter". Point of the story, if you have a passion for snow one way or the other, I dont think it would change based on how often you see it.

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You know that 50 inches of Toronto snow is not the same as 50" of fluffy lake snow. You also know that lake belts dont get pelted nonstop for an entire winter. A good friend of mine grew up in SW MI in the HEART of the snowbelt in Eau Clair, and yes he has seen some crazy lake effect storms, but he has also seen the type of things I mentioned about (barely enough to cover his grass and his Grandmas house nearby had 3 feet of snow). Another good friend has a bf that lives in Grand Rapids. They commute each weekend, one weekend he comes here, the next she there etc. There have been times when GRR will have logged 3 times the snow that DTW did in the week but yet the snow on the ground to the casual observer (ie my friend) looks the same. Theres no doubt winter in the snowbelt is harsher than outside of it. But I dont think its AS different as you think, and I certainly dont think you'd get sick of snow. Now, snowbelts in the U.P..where the snow doesnt melt unlike the snowbelts of lower MI, IN, OH, PA, and NY...THAT would be one hell of a harsh winter.

The Lk Huron snowbelt here in Ontario is more similar to N Michigan, although less extreme, than to the snowbelts in SW MI or NE OH/NW PA because the higher latitude prevents much melting. You're right about how highly localized LES is, but, I'd rather live in a belt where there's a chance you could get a 3 footer, than down here where there's essentially no chance. Sure you'd get burned every once in a while, but the times you get smoked would surely make up for that.

I'll upgrade us from a Sahara snow desert to a Mojave if we get 2"+ snow next Thursday. :pimp:

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

303 PM EST SAT DEC 4 2010

SHORT TERM

..EPIC LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORM TO TAKE SHAPE THIS PD

VIGOROUS SW TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH IL EARLY THIS AFTN WAS INDEED

SLW TO LOSE FOCUS W/NARROW HEAVY SNOWBAND OBSVD FALLING FM NE IA

THROUGH CNTRL IL AND INTO CNTRL IN. LL DRY ENTRAINMENT RIGHT OF VORT

TRACK LED TO CONSIDERABLE SUBLIMATION OF SNOW FLAKES AS WITNESSED

HERE AT THE OFFICE AND MINIMIZED SNOW ACCUMS W/HIGHEST REPORT OR 2

INCHES IN CASS COUNTY. SYS IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING THROUGH

BASE OF DEEPENING LW TROUGH OVR NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AND WILL

BRING QUITE A STORM TO THE ERN ST LAW VALLEY.

TREMENDOUS DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL PROVE PIVOTAL W/DEEP CUTOFF

CYCLONE SLOW TO RETROGRADE NWWD INTO MID WEEK. THUS WWD DEEP

MERIDIONAL FLW DOWN LONG AXIS OF LK MI COMBINED W/PRECONDITIONED

PARCELS OFF LK SP LOOK TO SPELL A PROLONGED PD OF LK EFFECT SNOWFALL.

AS ALWAYS...DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS PARTICULARLY W/CONTRASTING

SOLUTIONS OF NAM AND 12KM WRF. INTERESTINGLY WRF SOLUTION AT FACE

VALUE ALIGNS QUITE WELL W/JAN 1ST/5TH 2010 ANALOGS W/INITIAL INTENSE

SINGLE BAND DVLPMNT THIS EVENING AND ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY UPSTREAM

PER REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO DUAL DIPOLE

VORTEX SEEN IN MANY PAST LK EVENTS. HWVR ALTHOUGH WRF HAS SHOWN

CONSIDERABLE CONSISTENCY LAST TWO DAYS...PREFERRED DIPOLE HAS

WAFFLED. CLIMO FVRS ERN BAND GIVEN INTENSITY OF THERMAL TROUGH IN

FACE OF DEEP SHORE PARALLEL FLW HWVR INLAND PLACEMENT STILL QUITE

UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY FURTHER MODULATED BY DEGREE OF CAA THAT WRAPS

SWD OUT OF SRN CANADA WHICH MAY HAVE YET TO BE FULLY

CAPTURED/INITIALIZED. THUS ANY CHGS THROUGH MON NIGHT WERE

INCREMENTAL IN NATURE W/NEWER GUIDANCE BLENDED IN WHERE DEEMED

APPROPRIATE. LARGEST CHG WAS TO THIS EVENING TO DELAY ERN

TRANSLATION OF SINGLE BAND GIVEN SLWD BACKING AND ADDED DETAILS IN

DERIVED POP/QPF GRIDS THROUGH MON NIGHT.

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Yeah I was looking at a few webcams in the U.P. Bare ground in places now, plenty of snow in others. I know its hard, but sometimes patience gets rewarded real nicely :) .

Oh and snowstormcanuck, a little reverse psychology. You think you love snow now but if you lived in a snowbelt youd not like it as much. Well, a coworker of mine grew up in the snowbelt of the Keewenaw. And HATED snow. And some of the stories she has told of being snowed in almost sound unreal. She has lived downstate in the Detroit area for 20 years. So, while going from a place that averages well over 200" a winter to a place that averages 40-45" certainly is a world of difference for her, and she doesnt deny that. But she hates every inch of our snow as she did in the U.P. Two days ago, with 0.2" dusting of snow and the wind blowing briskly, she came into work and said "God I just HATE winter". Point of the story, if you have a passion for snow one way or the other, I dont think it would change based on how often you see it.

It's not the snow per se I'd get sick of. Most places in the Lakes that average 150-200"+ are desolate. That much snow makes travel risky. I might get sick of the isolation of being stuck in a cabin in the middle of nowhere for 6 months of the year. And I'm just musing about this stuff. I have no idea what it'd be like to live in a place like the Bruce Peninsula (which is our equivalent of Keweenaw), but I'm guessing there would be some cons to go with the pros.

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