stormtracker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We'll likely be the butt of the joke for that storm, but I'm surprised nobody is mentioning it. Euro actually looked sorta threatening if I'm ready the right panel in the NYC forum. HPC is talking it up and of course JB and co are on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Nam looks mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 dt said widespread severe.. im hitting the bunker early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 for d6/7 this yr the euro was in almost a perfect spot for dc area last night. unwind it a bit/shift it east and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 i can train a robot to just verbalize every cycle of the Euro...at least he wouldn't be any worse than DT dt said widespread severe.. im hitting the bunker early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Nam looks mildly interesting. Love me some clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We'll likely be the butt of the joke for that storm, but I'm surprised nobody is mentioning it. Euro actually looked sorta threatening if I'm ready the right panel in the NYC forum. HPC is talking it up and of course JB and co are on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I think there will be a major amplification and the track of the H5 trough will be good...but its going to be April 1-2 actually by the time that storm hits...so even if everything goes right it could end up being a 35 degree rainstorm. If we want to be more modest I think the Wed evening event holds some potential for an inch or two of snow somewhere from that system coming ahead of the big amplifier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Love me some clown map That is for the Wed event not the event the euro bombs out 2 days later. GGEM and GFS are now hinting at a major amplified event around April 1-2 also after that system goes bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 lol, NAM destroys us... and its the NAM at 84 hours, so lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 lol, NAM destroys us... and its the NAM at 84 hours, so lock it in. I think that Wed event has some potential but similar to the last one it might be washing out as it slides east, it has better upper level support though. The major amplified storm is 2 days later. Still its interesting that we have 2 storms with winter weather potential heading into the last few days of March and the first few of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I can work with that... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_126s.gif GGEM and Euro from last night have a similar H5 in that time period also...perhaps its real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 after this last miss how can you even consider the euro showing whatever in a week. Geez I hope for 60-65 degrees!!! Heck gfs still showing snow for midatlantic in their 6 hr forecast for today. Not finding fault, just very surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 the name of the thread says it all. after todays non-event, and the history of this winter, i think we'll all be fools if we put any hope in this storm for frozen precip potential, or any faith in this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayBreeze Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 lol, NAM destroys us... and its the NAM at 84 hours, so lock it in. it is so funny when you make forecasts. do you have any training whatsoever or a degree? hmmm? you need to get your homie ass up to UMD and enroll in some courses. You might learn a little something besides driving a bus looking for snow. Looking at the NAM and following it like a dog around here is UNREAL dumb. The NAM sucks. The verification numbers prove it. $$ RDH NWS 1985-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 the name of the thread says it all. after todays non-event, and the history of this winter, i think we'll all be fools if we put any hope in this storm for frozen precip potential, or any faith in this model. good post.!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 it is so funny when you make forecasts. do you have any training whatsoever or a degree? hmmm? you need to get your homie ass up to UMD and enroll in some courses. You might learn a little something besides driving a bus looking for snow. Looking at the NAM and following it like a dog around here is UNREAL dumb. The NAM sucks. The verification numbers prove it. $$ RDH NWS 1985-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 We'll likely be the butt of the joke for that storm, but I'm surprised nobody is mentioning it. Euro actually looked sorta threatening if I'm ready the right panel in the NYC forum. HPC is talking it up and of course JB and co are on it. You know what, I like snow. I don't care when it may fall or how climatologically unlikely it is to occur. If there is a chance it may fall from the sky, I will follow it until those chances go away. It looks beautiful no matter what month it falls. Here is to one more week of model wathcing in D.C., no matter how painful and fruitless it may, or not, end up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 "Lets keep in mind that the error in the storm over the last 24 hours was that there was TOO MUCH COLD pushing the storm too far south. I think that given the wavelengths, and something I pointed out on the morning post, the idea of the double barreled late week system with a big buckling of the jet into the east is the correct solution ( though the details will be sorted out later.. the UKMET 967 over DC is overdone and the GFS is too flat at 12z, too far west at 06z, and completely lost at 00z which is why Garrett is saying the automated forecastst for his gulf outing in eastern Pa on Saturday are saying it will be in the 60s A) it wont be in the 60s, and it should snow there to stick at least once, if not twice before… including the threat that any golfing outing north of the Mason DIxon line and west into the mid west is stopped by snow this week." JB on Weatherbelll Both JB and JD??? are forecasting SNOW - and quite a bit of it - for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 "Lets keep in mind that the error in the storm over the last 24 hours was that there was TOO MUCH COLD pushing the storm too far south. I think that given the wavelengths, and something I pointed out on the morning post, the idea of the double barreled late week system with a big buckling of the jet into the east is the correct solution ( though the details will be sorted out later.. the UKMET 967 over DC is overdone and the GFS is too flat at 12z, too far west at 06z, and completely lost at 00z which is why Garrett is saying the automated forecastst for his gulf outing in eastern Pa on Saturday are saying it will be in the 60s A) it wont be in the 60s, and it should snow there to stick at least once, if not twice before… including the threat that any golfing outing north of the Mason DIxon line and west into the mid west is stopped by snow this week." JB on Weatherbelll Both JB and JD??? are forecasting SNOW - and quite a bit of it - for next weekend. interesting reading including Dr Dewpoint(?) take on next week event too. D'aleo said snow could reach down into interior of midatlantic, including DC area!!! Could be heavy?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 You guys are great... At this rate, some of you will be trying to track winter storms in July from 480 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 euro puts all the eggs in the first storm with the 12z run. lots of qpf.. 0c 850 never gets much north of DC. surface looks warmish though.second is weak and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 it is so funny when you make forecasts. do you have any training whatsoever or a degree? hmmm? you need to get your homie ass up to UMD and enroll in some courses. You might learn a little something besides driving a bus looking for snow. Looking at the NAM and following it like a dog around here is UNREAL dumb. The NAM sucks. The verification numbers prove it. $$ RDH NWS 1985-2010 Is this post a joke? I sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 euro puts all the eggs in the first storm with the 12z run. lots of qpf.. 0c 850 never gets much north of DC. surface looks warmish though.second is weak and ots. Are you calling the first storm the midweek storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 euro puts all the eggs in the first storm with the 12z run. lots of qpf.. 0c 850 never gets much north of DC. surface looks warmish though.second is weak and ots. Exactly opposite of what JB is touting--lol. Of course, JB had last night's "event" originally pegged for NYC, then adjusted his forecast for the axis of heaviest snow along I-70, and finally had DC in the 1-3 inch band as of yesterday's call. His floundering is not exactly good advertising for the upcoming conversion of his blog to pay per view. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Are you calling the first storm the midweek storm? yes, late wed into thurs. i would think maybe northern md someone does well looking at the maps but the surface is marginal. track is pretty ideal if it was jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Exactly opposite of what JB is touting--lol. Of course, JB had last night's "event" originally pegged for NYC, then adjusted his forecast for the axis of heaviest snow along I-70, and finally had DC in the 1-3 inch band as of yesterday's call. His floundering is not exactly good advertising for the upcoming conversion of his blog to pay per view. MDstorm im sure the same suckers that paid for it before will pay for it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 im sure the same suckers that paid for it before will pay for it again. Now, be nice to Ji. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Euro is always warm at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Euro is always warm at the surface there's no major cold source .. i dunno if 0c 850s will do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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