MAG5035 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The GFS sneaks a half-decent piece of QPF through the southern third of PA wed night with the first system, but a very weak system overall with the low pretty far southeast. And for the April Fool's storm it looks more like a usual GFS east coast storm positioning with an eventual low development out of the Gulf slipping near/southeast of Hatteras and staying fairly well offshore and relatively weak. NAM vs GFS 84 hours was interesting, as the NAM has a better organized system with a closed 1004mb in southern Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Midweek looks suspect on GFS..not sure about that precip so far from the low...and late week is way SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 UKMET continues to be an absolute bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Midweek looks suspect on GFS..not sure about that precip so far from the low...and late week is way SE. Okay, we get it. You want to play baseball. I don't play anymore but I would like to start on my garden. But that's not going to make the weather we want happen, nor is it good stuff to base a forecast on, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Okay, we get it. You want to play baseball. I don't play anymore but I would like to start on my garden. But that's not going to make the weather we want happen, nor is it good stuff to base a forecast on, lol. I still agree with him that the midweek system is a non-event. The surface low tracks across northern GA, just like the Saturday night/Sunday AM storm did, with a similar upper-air pattern. And we all know how much snow we got out of that. NAM and Canadian have come into line and the 06z GFS was much farther south. The late week storm still has a lot of questions that need to be answered and that has more potential than the midweek event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I still agree with him that the midweek system is a non-event. The surface low tracks across northern GA, just like the Saturday night/Sunday AM storm did, with a similar upper-air pattern. And we all know how much snow we got out of that. NAM and Canadian have come into line and the 06z GFS was much farther south. The late week storm still has a lot of questions that need to be answered and that has more potential than the midweek event. Oh, I know. But he did this with the last storm. I was giving him a hard time. I was the same way when I played baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Might be a better time to talk about this, but who else has a "weather switch" that turns off interest in types of events. I am more interested in this pattern than usual, as I tend to lean toward wanting warmth this time of year, now for gardening but at one time for baseball. I like all kinds of weather, though. And my gardening interest causes me to track rain in the summer with more intensity than I do for snow in January, lol. I admit to watching radar and begging storms to hit me in dry periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Might be a better time to talk about this, but who else has a "weather switch" that turns off interest in types of events. I am more interested in this pattern than usual, as I tend to lean toward wanting warmth this time of year, now for gardening but at one time for baseball. I like all kinds of weather, though. And my gardening interest causes me to track rain in the summer with more intensity than I do for snow in January, lol. I admit to watching radar and begging storms to hit me in dry periods. I usually don't have a switch, especially during the winter. This year is different - I've had enough of the snow and cold and am tired of forecasting them. The switch flipped switch for me sometime in February. I'm ready for spring and severe weather, although we did get a taste of both last week. One of the best parts of this area is the difference in seasons. Usually by the time you get tired of one season, the next one is beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 LOL...Jamie called me out on this one, I'm clearly rooting against it. But at the same time, the threat has diminished greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 LOL...Jamie called me out on this one, I'm clearly rooting against it. But at the same time, the threat has diminished greatly. Yeah, compare the 12z NAM yesterday to the 12z run today and it's like night and day. Models are still having trouble resolving everything for Friday. Very strung out systems (except the UKMET, of course), with the GFS and NAM trying to pull the precip north and west towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wednesday pretty much a whiff per the latest GFS. If Friday doesn't materialize, that may be it for snow opportunities. Wouldn't break my heart at this point. Playing golf with a zillion layers of clothing is like swinging in a closet. Plus the ball flies like a wounded duck when it's this cold. AND the season opener at Cecil County Dragway was canceled this past weekend due to cold. Bring on the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Might be a better time to talk about this, but who else has a "weather switch" that turns off interest in types of events. I am more interested in this pattern than usual, as I tend to lean toward wanting warmth this time of year, now for gardening but at one time for baseball. I like all kinds of weather, though. And my gardening interest causes me to track rain in the summer with more intensity than I do for snow in January, lol. I admit to watching radar and begging storms to hit me in dry periods. I have a switch. I flipped into summer mode about 3 weeks ago. I need some sun and warmth to take away the aches and pains.I'll turn it back to winter/snow mode sometime late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Come late October early November I'll be ready for the snow to fly again! As for the storms, mid-week is gone, and late week looks strung out and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm ready for some warmer weather.Once April gets here hopefully we will turn the corner. I would like to start doing some Kayaking. The water temp on Pine Creek on March 14th was 39.38 degrees ....Today the Water temp was 37.04 degrees The water is not warming up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm ready for some warmer weather.Once April gets here hopefully we will turn the corner. I would like to start doing some Kayaking. The water temp on Pine Creek on March 14th was 39.38 degrees ....Today the Water temp was 37.04 degrees The water is not warming up at all. That’ll make the ole boys shrivel up…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It was 91 at my parents house Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It was 91 at my parents house Sunday lol That helps..lol My brother is in Fl. He was at the Phillies game yesterday. He said it too was in the 90's there. They had throwback beer prices..3 bucks for pounders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 UKMET continues to be an absolute bomb: As far as the indices and ensembles go, there's a good bit of support for an ecs. An exciting one too, not just a few inches of slop. It's gonna be fun to see how things play out over the next two or three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 The models are all over the place. Nothing new there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 So what is the deal with the Wednesday and Friday storm? Everything I read is so not helpful haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 So what is the deal with the Wednesday and Friday storm? Everything I read is so not helpful haha! Maybe a few inches if anything. Attention is turning to a possible bigger storm into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Maybe a few inches if anything. Attention is turning to a possible bigger storm into the weekend. The bigger storm could be Friday into Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The bigger storm could be Friday into Saturday? henry m on this storm. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/47599/snow-map-for-the-april-fools-day-snowstorm.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 GFS Storm 1 GFS storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So what is the deal with the Wednesday and Friday storm? Everything I read is so not helpful haha! Yea its a bit of a confusing week with regards to events due to the modelling being all over the place. The models are having trouble grasping because there's several waves that will be riding the jet stream. The first of which is the Wednesday night event which has been advertised in varying degrees. HPC was really going gung ho with snow probs across southern PA this afternoon. This wave is similar to the no-show that we had over the weekend, and it could have a similar outcome since the low has been progged consistently to be pretty far to the southeast..thus making notable precip totals a bit questionable. Today's 9z and 15z SREFs have really backed off on QPF and snow probs for this event in spite of the HPC forecast. I tend to agree with Brian on this first wave not yielding alot even if it throws snowfall into southern PA. This time of the year if you wanna rack it up..you need some beefed up precip rates. Which brings the Friday event. This has the possibility to dig enough to make for at least a sizeable coastal storm. The NAO is getting ready to swing from a strong negative to neutral at the time of the event, holding there for a couple days before looking to head positive. The AO is looking to rocket even more positive. The PNA will be positive thru the potential event before dropping negative. Given the forecast tendencies of these teleconnections and the fact it's almost April.. this is probably the last chance of the season for an east coast snowstorm or any kind of widespread heavier snowfall. So with that said, we're experiencing the model games like we always do with these things. Right now it seems that all models develop the coastal in some fashion, and some quite strongly. The UKMET has been dropping bombs on the northeast consistently the last few days and todays 12z GFS put a 968mb low in the Gulf of Maine. The European had had some solutions of a good coastal but has backed off the last couple runs on that particular storm...instead emphasizing the Wed night wave. The NAM's been a lil bit hit or miss since this is just starting to get into some of this events range. As I said, these models are going to continue to be pretty wishy washy for awhile yet resolving all these different shortwaves. I do think that we will be dealing with a coastal storm of some fashion and that someone in the northeast gets a snowstorm. But how much amplification we can get, degree/timing of phasing, etc will dictate who sees it (not including the other precip issues regarding to temps, elevations, time of day, etc) and how ridiculous the storm becomes. Heck of a way to run spring any way you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yea its a bit of a confusing week with regards to events due to the modelling being all over the place. The models are having trouble grasping because there's several waves that will be riding the jet stream. The first of which is the Wednesday night event which has been advertised in varying degrees. HPC was really going gung ho with snow probs across southern PA this afternoon. This wave is similar to the no-show that we had over the weekend, and it could have a similar outcome since the low has been progged consistently to be pretty far to the southeast..thus making notable precip totals a bit questionable. Today's 9z and 15z SREFs have really backed off on QPF and snow probs for this event in spite of the HPC forecast. I tend to agree with Brian on this first wave not yielding alot even if it throws snowfall into southern PA. This time of the year if you wanna rack it up..you need some beefed up precip rates. Which brings the Friday event. This has the possibility to dig enough to make for at least a sizeable coastal storm. The NAO is getting ready to swing from a strong negative to neutral at the time of the event, holding there for a couple days before looking to head positive. The AO is looking to rocket even more positive. The PNA will be positive thru the potential event before dropping negative. Given the forecast tendencies of these teleconnections and the fact it's almost April.. this is probably the last chance of the season for an east coast snowstorm or any kind of widespread heavier snowfall. So with that said, we're experiencing the model games like we always do with these things. Right now it seems that all models develop the coastal in some fashion, and some quite strongly. The UKMET has been dropping bombs on the northeast consistently the last few days and todays 12z GFS put a 968mb low in the Gulf of Maine. The European had had some solutions of a good coastal but has backed off the last couple runs on that particular storm...instead emphasizing the Wed night wave. The NAM's been a lil bit hit or miss since this is just starting to get into some of this events range. As I said, these models are going to continue to be pretty wishy washy for awhile yet resolving all these different shortwaves. I do think that we will be dealing with a coastal storm of some fashion and that someone in the northeast gets a snowstorm. But how much amplification we can get, degree/timing of phasing, etc will dictate who sees it (not including the other precip issues regarding to temps, elevations, time of day, etc) and how ridiculous the storm becomes. Heck of a way to run spring any way you slice it. This could be the single biggest factor in the storm. History has shown that when we're switching nao phases from negative to positive, something big forms along the coast. Will it hit us? Too early to say. But I feel that a storm is more likely than not along the east coast on Friday. I'd give it a good chance of being sub 995 when it's at our latitude. And elevation will likely play a big role. AOA 1,200' would see accumulations, should we be in the crosshairs. April 2007 was a similar event with a gulf low, but it was later in the month on the 16th. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2007_nor%27easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The 0z GFS just destroyed CPA, basically a redux of the 0z Euro from Sunday morning. Via Accupro: 78&84 hr (surface) 78&84 hr (p-type) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Model discrepancy much? We all know the NAM is usually off in la-la land at this time range, so let's see if the other global modeling shows more amplified solutions like tonight's GFS: NAM @ 84 hrs: GFS @ 84 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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