LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I just did.. dear god! Not sure if you have any access to to precip amounts but its something on the order of like 1.5-2.5" of QPF (snow) for most everyone in here. Maybe this one doesn't pull the disappearing act todays system pulled http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15773-potential-for-big-event-looms-large-march-28-30/page__view__findpost__p__585983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__585983 925mb and surface temps suggest this would definitely be a classic early spring tree snapping, bush bending, daisy destroying wet snowfall. It would be quite a spectacle if that much QPF actually fell. Looking at the teleconnections, it seems like a good time for some kind of an east coast storm with the NAO wrapping up a significant shift from its current pretty negative phase to neutral and the PNA forecast to hang in positive territory. Overall I like the storm idea, and the usual questions of timing, track, and phasing will dictate where/if we can manage that kind of monstrous deform. Think the GFS was hinting at a big storm near this range the other day... but didn't have much at 0z and a double barrelled low at 6z. Canadian surprisingly isn't too excited attm and the NOGAPS is actually pretty close to the Euro strength/position wise..fwiw. We shallf see. Here's some Euro printout totals.. and there's def not any kind of a major cut off of QPF in this region. MDT FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.1 -0.4 1000 98 99 0.71 541 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.9 -4.9 991 92 95 0.86 531 538 SAT 00Z 02-APR 1.2 -5.1 993 91 97 0.46 529 534 AOO FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.3 -2.1 1007 91 98 0.07 546 540 FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.1 -2.3 1002 97 98 0.63 540 539 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.4 -3.7 998 93 97 1.07 534 536 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.6 -4.0 998 94 93 0.62 533 535 UNV FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.0 -2.2 1003 96 98 0.51 541 538 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.2 -4.4 998 93 96 1.06 535 537 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.7 -4.9 997 93 96 0.56 532 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Other tease or does this one deliver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The Euro is disturbing. lol. 2.5-3" of qpf all snow. umm excuse me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 What did the 0z/27 EURO have for NEPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 925mb and surface temps suggest this would definitely be a classic early spring tree snapping, bush bending, daisy destroying wet snowfall. It would be quite a spectacle if that much QPF actually fell. Looking at the teleconnections, it seems like a good time for some kind of an east coast storm with the NAO wrapping up a significant shift from its current pretty negative phase to neutral and the PNA forecast to hang in positive territory. Overall I like the storm idea, and the usual questions of timing, track, and phasing will dictate where/if we can manage that kind of monstrous deform. Think the GFS was hinting at a big storm near this range the other day... but didn't have much at 0z and a double barrelled low at 6z. Canadian surprisingly isn't too excited attm and the NOGAPS is actually pretty close to the Euro strength/position wise..fwiw. We shallf see. Here's some Euro printout totals.. and there's def not any kind of a major cut off of QPF in this region. MDT FRI 12Z 01-APR 1.1 -0.4 1000 98 99 0.71 541 541 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.9 -4.9 991 92 95 0.86 531 538 SAT 00Z 02-APR 1.2 -5.1 993 91 97 0.46 529 534 AOO FRI 06Z 01-APR 2.3 -2.1 1007 91 98 0.07 546 540 FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.1 -2.3 1002 97 98 0.63 540 539 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.4 -3.7 998 93 97 1.07 534 536 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.6 -4.0 998 94 93 0.62 533 535 UNV FRI 12Z 01-APR 0.0 -2.2 1003 96 98 0.51 541 538 FRI 18Z 01-APR 0.2 -4.4 998 93 96 1.06 535 537 SAT 00Z 02-APR 0.7 -4.9 997 93 96 0.56 532 534 very interesting. would love to see that happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 What did the 0z/27 EURO have for NEPA? About 1.3" for Scranton, one thing that was interesting for the Euro was that the QPF lessened once to northeast PA, BGM, and further northeast. Not to say it wasn't still significant, but it seems like the Euro stacked the storm pretty quickly.. focusing the strongest QPF banding in central and esp south-central PA. The euro has been pretty excitable this season when it comes to these mid-range storms, so i'd like to see some more support. 12z GFS keeps the storm progressive and doesn't really dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Is the Euro all snow for York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I actually should mention that I just saw per the thread goin for this storm here in the upstate ny/pa that UKMET at 0z had a 967mb low over Zak's head and the new 12z run runs a 980s low from KY/TN to a 975 over upstate NY. Clearly that models all in on max phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Is the Euro all snow for York? I'd say probably. Possibly some rain/snow issues early in the event but 850 temps cool off further as the low deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 12Z CMC is two storms. On Wednesday night into Thursday and another on Friday. Both snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 And now for our secondary (experimental models) CPA through SE/ENY, ftw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I see Potter....you see the Euro? lol I was lurking earlier but didn't see your post. I haven't seen it, well technically I don't have access to it but have heard others charm in on the potential that may be. I tell ya what, if the Euro were right, maybe there is something to that supermoon ordeal or at least have some credence. I believe the GFS has a lake cutter, so lets hope for a SE trend toward the Euro! I'm not sure what the record late season snowfall is but if the Euro was even remotely right, I bet it would be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z GFS is a big time storm...for NYC metro. Only light snows for C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 18z GFS is a big time storm...for NYC metro. Only light snows for C PA. Actually 18Z GFS gives central PA 3-6" from storm one then some more light snow from storm two. Here is GFS ENS, more aggressive. Storm one. Strom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 What is CTP talking about? .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AFTER A WET FIRST PART OF MARCH WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATIONWILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN IN RECENT WEEKS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.FOR IPT...SECOND MOST RAINFALL ON RECORD FOR MARCH...1936 HOLDS THEFIRST POSITION. ANYWAY...DID EDGE POPS UP A LITTLE FOR LATE IN THEWEEK... BUT A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IF A STORM WILL CUTOFF AND LIFT NE. ANYWAY...WITH SECONDARY FRONTS MOVING ACROSS...ASMALL AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. I DID SPLIT WEATHERTYPES FOR WED AND FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN IN THE AFT.CLOSER IN...FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY THU...DID EDGE POPS UP ALITTLE...GIVEN NGM PUSHING PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. NGM?? What?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What is CTP talking about? .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AFTER A WET FIRST PART OF MARCH WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATIONWILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN IN RECENT WEEKS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.FOR IPT...SECOND MOST RAINFALL ON RECORD FOR MARCH...1936 HOLDS THEFIRST POSITION. ANYWAY...DID EDGE POPS UP A LITTLE FOR LATE IN THEWEEK... BUT A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IF A STORM WILL CUTOFF AND LIFT NE. ANYWAY...WITH SECONDARY FRONTS MOVING ACROSS...ASMALL AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. I DID SPLIT WEATHERTYPES FOR WED AND FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN IN THE AFT.CLOSER IN...FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY THU...DID EDGE POPS UP ALITTLE...GIVEN NGM PUSHING PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. NGM?? What?? Seen this a bit ago, made me lol a little. I mean i'm thinking there's more than the NGM pushing precip up currently haha. At any rate CTP's explanation is this: $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Seen this a bit ago, made me lol a little. I mean i'm thinking there's more than the NGM pushing precip up currently haha. At any rate CTP's explanation is this: $ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU That's really all the explanation we need right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wed. looks like rain/snow showers...Friday/saturday I hope will be too far east...time for baseball and racing, at this rate Selinsgrove won't run until may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Now that i look at that more, I think he meant to say the NAM.. not the NGM. I forgot the NGM was shut down a couple years ago.. plus it only went out to 48 hours anyways. Still, the 12z GFS and especially 12z Euro also brought precip into alot of PA for that Thursday-ish timeframe, plus the SREF has been printing decent pops as well. Heck might as well throw the Canadian in there too, cuz it also had similar coverage to all the aforementioned models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wed. looks like rain/snow showers...Friday/saturday I hope will be too far east...time for baseball and racing, at this rate Selinsgrove won't run until may. I tend to agree with this. We're dealing a stubborn high pressure system for the Wednesday and we'll be fighting a warm boundary layer (since it is almost April) during the daylight hours, so this is going to try to mix with rain in the valleys, with maybe some accumulation across the mountains. Just not a good setup to me. I'm more intrigued by the late-week storm, especially since I'll be up in Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Now that i look at that more, I think he meant to say the NAM.. not the NGM. I forgot the NGM was shut down a couple years ago.. plus it only went out to 48 hours anyways. Still, the 12z GFS and especially 12z Euro also brought precip into alot of PA for that Thursday-ish timeframe, plus the SREF has been printing decent pops as well. Heck might as well throw the Canadian in there too, cuz it also had similar coverage to all the aforementioned models. I was scratching my head at that, too. I thought the NGM was rotting in a landfill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I tend to agree with this. We're dealing a stubborn high pressure system for the Wednesday and we'll be fighting a warm boundary layer (since it is almost April) during the daylight hours, so this is going to try to mix with rain in the valleys, with maybe some accumulation across the mountains. Just not a good setup to me. I'm more intrigued by the late-week storm, especially since I'll be up in Boston... Agreed 100% PSU. Light precip in daylight hours + temp issues=nuisance at best. And I think Boston may be in a good spot for late week...this one may end up being a treat for New England. I guess I'm rooting for it to miss us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 I was scratching my head at that, too. I thought the NGM was rotting in a landfill... That's why I was like WTF is he talking about. lol. Nested Grid Model is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That's why I was like WTF is he talking about. lol. Nested Grid Model is history. Yeah, it's not even a good piece of meteorological garbage. The crows wouldn't even bother picking at it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What is CTP talking about? .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AFTER A WET FIRST PART OF MARCH WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATIONWILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN IN RECENT WEEKS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.FOR IPT...SECOND MOST RAINFALL ON RECORD FOR MARCH...1936 HOLDS THEFIRST POSITION. ANYWAY...DID EDGE POPS UP A LITTLE FOR LATE IN THEWEEK... BUT A LOT OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IF A STORM WILL CUTOFF AND LIFT NE. ANYWAY...WITH SECONDARY FRONTS MOVING ACROSS...ASMALL AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. I DID SPLIT WEATHERTYPES FOR WED AND FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN IN THE AFT.CLOSER IN...FOR LATE TUE INTO EARLY THU...DID EDGE POPS UP ALITTLE...GIVEN NGM PUSHING PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. NGM?? What?? So...thats one of the new experimental models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah, it's not even a good piece of meteorological garbage. The crows wouldn't even bother picking at it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I don't know what the NGM say lol....but the NAM says no to the mid week event, late week/weekend still not in it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I don't know what the NGM say lol....but the NAM says no to the mid week event, late week/weekend still not in it's range. Looks much more reasonable now given that the stronger low pressure system is over Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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