EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 CTP updated forecast. Wednesday: Snow. High near 40. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. (Eh idk about that) Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 32. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Still better then the no storm is showed last night. Anyways here is the HI Res model. LOL Well i'll take like 8-12" from storm one. Precip is not over yet either. to my untrained eye, that looks like it brings a little bit more precip into scpa then i thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Total from storm on HI RES. Wow. I'll take it. lol When the snow map comes out it should be good from some lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyone know what the Euro, UKMET or SREFs are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Anyone know what the Euro, UKMET or SREFs are showing? Euro isn't out. Srefs was posted earlier and ukmet is a monster. I personally fell out of my chair when i saw this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow....the weather nerd in me wants the Ukmet to happen...even though I'm ready for spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Wow....the weather nerd in me wants the Ukmet to happen...even though I'm ready for spring lol. It will all melt in a few days so why not. Better then just cold and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 CMC is like a non stop train of snow storms. Check it out. haha http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro is rolling. News should be out shortly on what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro storm 2 is too far east, anyone knows what it shows for storm 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sounds like Euro is basically like the GFS. So it's coming online now too. Now we just need to wait and see if it starts pulling closer in like the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z EC showing .25 to .35 leq from JST/FIG east to MDT for Weds Sfc temps a little warm around MDT, topping out in the mid 40s at 18z. Might be a little warm considering the cold night and clouds arriving b4 daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I wouldn't hold my breath on a west trend, these storms rarely seem to pan out. I really hope it does though, so we can get some people some snow on here that have been left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It appears it has come west a bit from 0z. .1 from JST to FIG to UNV and AOO for Friday .25 around SEG .5 around MDT .6-.7 near LNS IPT comes in with around .25 with each round. all with -0°c 850t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It appears it has come west a bit from 0z. .1 from JST to FIG to UNV and AOO for Friday .25 around SEG .5 around MDT .6-.7 near LNS IPT comes in with around .25 with each round. all with -0°c 850t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hold on... another round coming through on Sat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Another .25-.30 from JST and IDI and sw .1 - .2 from FIG to AOO and Bedford. Again with 850s below fzg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong but from the sound of the Philly Euro play by play, most precip comes from the backside ccb. Snow from the north and/or northeast never seems to play well here. Over promise and under-deliver syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 CTP updated forecast. Wednesday: Snow. High near 40. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. (Eh idk about that) Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 32. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. If, and that's a big word here, but if you have a temp of 40 during the day on Wednesday, you better have some really, really heavy rates to overcome daytime radiation and temps that marginal to see any accumulation. Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AWXC UNIT 2:15 PM MAR 29 2011 ...THE ANALYSTWXCAST PENNSYLVANIA UNIT HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... ...ADAMS, ALLEGHENY, ARMSTRONG, BEAVER, BEDFORD, BLAIR, BUTLER, CAMBRIA, CENTRE, CLEARFIELD, CLARION, CUMBERLAND, ELK, FAYETTE, FOREST, FRANKLIN, FULTON, GREENE, HUNTINGTON, INDIANA, JEFFERSON, JUNIATA, LAWRENCE, MERCER, MIFFLIN, PERRY, VENANGO, WASHINGTON, & WESTMORELAND... ...IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TILL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY... A STORM SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTH PUSHING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL EVEN THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS SOME RAIN IT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. OVER 2 INCHES IS LIKELY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 If, and that's a big word here, but if you have a temp of 40 during the day on Wednesday, you better have some really, really heavy rates to overcome daytime radiation and temps that marginal to see any accumulation. Just sayin'... It is only going to be warm in the morning. Temps are supposed to fall to 32 by about 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong but from the sound of the Philly Euro play by play, most precip comes from the backside ccb. Snow from the north and/or northeast never seems to play well here. Over promise and under-deliver syndrome. Well, things have come west a bit since 0z on the euro. We still have 3 days and 5 more runs of the euro. And again, this model isn't the guru it used to be.....so take with a grain of salt and compare the GFS, UK, JMA (which has gotten better), and ensembles to each other. Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong but from the sound of the Philly Euro play by play, most precip comes from the backside ccb. Snow from the north and/or northeast never seems to play well here. Over promise and under-deliver syndrome. You know, I've been on the "we're going to get more snow down here" syndrome since mid February... Any chance if this thing pans out Friday that we call this the "Maytown Mauler"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It is only going to be warm in the morning. Temps are supposed to fall to 32 by about 4pm. Sounds good to me I guess. Still, I'd be hoping for heavier QPF to still be around later in the day after the sun gets a bit lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You know, I've been on the "we're going to get more snow down here" syndrome since mid February... Any chance if this thing pans out Friday that we call this the "Maytown Mauler"? yeah, you have been leading that train for awhile. Its the least we can do....No games Friday Brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So are both storms still looking good for some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Mt Holly's discussion of Friday's storm - COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ALL BETS ARE THEN OFF AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE GFS THERMAL FIELD IS COLDER THAN THE UKMET OR CAN GGEM (HI RES ECMWF NOT VIEWABLE IN TIME). BUT TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, IT DEPENDS UPON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF AS DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW REGARDLESS OF LOCATION. PAY ONE NOW OR PAY ONE LATER, WE SUPPOSE IF THE LOW WOULD TREND FARTHER TO THE WEST, THIS WOULD INCREASE THE HYDRO CONCERNS PARTICULARLY IN NJ AS EVENT TOTAL QPF BY THE GFS/CAN GGEM AND UKMET ARE AVERAGING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING OUR AREA AS FRIDAY CONTINUES AND ONCE THE INTENSITY IS LOST, PRECIPITATION COULD GO BACK TO RAIN. BECAUSE OF MARGINAL TEMPERATURES THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT, NOT EXACTLY A UTILITY`S DREAM. WE LOADED IN SOME CONSERVATIVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW, BUT THIS SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A VERY FIRST GUESS WITH REVISIONS TO FOLLOW. BROUGHT MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO FREEZING FASTER OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANTICIPATED MIXING OR CHANGEOVER AND WITH SNOW PROBABLE ON THE GROUND IN PARTS OF OUR CWA, WENT BELOW MEX MOS FOR MAX TEMPS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 springs gone bye bye for now... looks like some are gonna get a decent snow over the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 15z SREFs are awfully juicy for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Many of us pick up .3 to .6, slightly less from IPT northeastward. Surface temps will be marginal aob 1,200' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Somebody please help me with this... Does this mean that no one in PA outside of the coastal plain, Lehigh Valley,and the Poconos get's anything? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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