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NNE Winter Snow Thread II

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Some crazy temp fluctuations here ahead of the front. In the span of a few minutes it's gone from 46.5 to 45.0 to 46.0 and now to 44.3. It's near calm here too, but not as much fog like in Scott's cam pic.

And as I typed that sentence it fell to 43.2F

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Some crazy temp fluctuations here ahead of the front. In the span of a few minutes it's gone from 46.5 to 45.0 to 46.0 and now to 44.3. It's near calm here too, but not as much fog like in Scott's cam pic.

And as I typed that sentence it fell to 43.2F

Hit 42.7F and now back up to 44.2F. I'll post the graph later.

Dropping again before I submit. 43.7F and plummeting.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I wonder if the cold near the snowpack is causing this. Now the winds are more calm, that might be the issue?

Yeah...I think so. There's a bit of cold drainage (1-3mph) from the top of my hill through here. Winds aren't from the N yet because I can still see the FG moving northward down my hill. Maybe it will jump back up a few degrees briefly when the actual front makes it through. That happened at Woodstock earlier nestled in the Whites.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_nh_rwis.cgi?id=656007

Back to 42.7F.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

GFS is now FZRA here at 6z. If it happens sooner it could be a mess.

Date: 12 hour AVN valid 6Z MON  7 MAR 11
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000    67                                                                 
SFC  977   251  -0.3  -0.5  98  0.3  -0.4 354   9 274.7 275.3 273.9 284.9  3.76
 2  950   478  -1.0  -1.2  98  0.2  -1.1  17  13 276.2 276.8 274.7 286.3  3.68
 3  900   910   0.5   0.4  99  0.1   0.5  95  15 282.0 282.8 278.7 294.3  4.38
 4  850  1372   2.9   2.9 100  0.0   2.9 156  34 289.2 290.1 283.4 305.0  5.54
 5  800  1863   2.4   2.3 100  0.0   2.4 176  55 293.7 294.7 285.4 310.1  5.67
 6  750  2384   0.9   0.8  99  0.1   0.8 188  67 297.5 298.5 286.6 313.5  5.40
 7  700  2937  -1.3  -1.4 100  0.0  -1.3 193  67 301.0 301.9 287.4 315.9  4.95

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hvysnow79

hvysnow79

Posted
Posted

Pure snow now and comin' down at a fresh clip. 32F finally.

Measured the rain right at the turn over--0.67" of rainfall. More liquid to follow, but will have to melt next time around.

LOL, no kiddin'! ;)

Great to hear, I am anxiously awaiting the change over here, temp 33F.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

GFS is a HUGE snowstorm here now. Got rid of that crappy upper level warmth. Says 12+ is going to happen. UNBELIEVABLE!

You still walk the line around 800mb, but it's damn close. Hopefully it pans out for you. It could be a biggie. Looks like 1.25" QPF for you after 00z. It's funny how almost due east of you I'll have probably no snow accumulation.
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simpsonsbuff

simpsonsbuff

Posted
Posted

You still walk the line around 800mb, but it's damn close. Hopefully it pans out for you. It could be a biggie. Looks like 1.25" QPF for you after 00z. It's funny how almost due east of you I'll have probably no snow accumulation.

What soundings do you have? I was looking at plymouth (and then ARL when it comes out), and it had the warmest at 850. I know sometimes plymouth runs a little off.

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whitemountainhiker

whitemountainhiker

Posted
Posted

You still walk the line around 800mb, but it's damn close. Hopefully it pans out for you. It could be a biggie. Looks like 1.25" QPF for you after 00z. It's funny how almost due east of you I'll have probably no snow accumulation.

Any chance of freezing rain here? Like this evening? Temps seem to be dropping more slowly now, which might not mean glazing. I really don't know.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

What soundings do you have? I was looking at plymouth (and then ARL when it comes out), and it had the warmest at 850. I know sometimes plymouth runs a little off.

You're at LEB right?

Date: 12 hour AVN valid 6Z MON  7 MAR 11
Station: KLEB
Latitude:   43.63
Longitude: -72.30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000    84                                                                 
SFC  965   366  -4.4  -4.7  98  0.3  -4.5 341   9 271.5 272.0 270.6 279.1  2.80
 2  950   489  -5.5  -5.7  98  0.2  -5.5 348  14 271.7 272.1 270.4 278.8  2.63
 3  900   912  -4.7  -4.8  99  0.1  -4.8  27  23 276.6 277.1 273.9 284.8  2.96
 4  850  1366  -0.6  -0.7  99  0.1  -0.6  95  19 285.5 286.3 280.3 297.6  4.27
 5  800  1852   0.1   0.0 100  0.1   0.1 159  33 291.2 292.1 283.4 305.1  4.79
 6  750  2369  -0.8  -0.8 100  0.0  -0.8 182  51 295.7 296.6 285.2 309.8  4.80
 7  700  2919  -2.5  -2.5 100  0.0  -2.5 191  57 299.7 300.5 286.5 313.3  4.54
 8  650  3505  -5.0  -5.0 100  0.0  -5.0 191  57 303.3 304.0 287.3 315.7  4.05
 9  600  4131  -8.1  -8.2 100  0.0  -8.2 189  60 306.7 307.3 287.9 317.4  3.44

Verbatim that's probably snow unless there is some warmth at 825. My point is you're right on the PL/SN line.

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simpsonsbuff

simpsonsbuff

Posted
Posted

You're at LEB right?

Date: 12 hour AVN valid 6Z MON  7 MAR 11
Station: KLEB
Latitude:   43.63
Longitude: -72.30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000    84                                                             	
SFC  965   366  -4.4  -4.7  98  0.3  -4.5 341   9 271.5 272.0 270.6 279.1  2.80
 2  950   489  -5.5  -5.7  98  0.2  -5.5 348  14 271.7 272.1 270.4 278.8  2.63
 3  900   912  -4.7  -4.8  99  0.1  -4.8  27  23 276.6 277.1 273.9 284.8  2.96
 4  850  1366  -0.6  -0.7  99  0.1  -0.6  95  19 285.5 286.3 280.3 297.6  4.27
 5  800  1852   0.1   0.0 100  0.1   0.1 159  33 291.2 292.1 283.4 305.1  4.79
 6  750  2369  -0.8  -0.8 100  0.0  -0.8 182  51 295.7 296.6 285.2 309.8  4.80
 7  700  2919  -2.5  -2.5 100  0.0  -2.5 191  57 299.7 300.5 286.5 313.3  4.54
 8  650  3505  -5.0  -5.0 100  0.0  -5.0 191  57 303.3 304.0 287.3 315.7  4.05
 9  600  4131  -8.1  -8.2 100  0.0  -8.2 189  60 306.7 307.3 287.9 317.4  3.44

Verbatim that's probably snow unless there is some warmth at 825. My point is you're right on the PL/SN line.

Yea, that's why i like the ARL soundings. I believe they have it at every 25 mb's. We'll see. Should be fun!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

This is an awesome AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

408 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 356 PM EST SUNDAY...MAJOR STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH

COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO

TWO FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. AREAS OF

FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN

THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR

FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TAKING A LITTLE

LONGER TO MAKE INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREENS THAN IT DID OVER

WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING. BUT THOSE LOCATIONS STILL

EXPERIENCING RAIN WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR MIXED

PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION THEN

EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE

EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG

SHORTWAVE ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT

OCCURRING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW

WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...REACHING VICINITY OF NYC

AROUND 06Z...AND THEN CAPE COD BY 12Z MONDAY. 700 MB BECOMES

CLOSED THIS EVENING AND LIFTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH

OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BAND OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS FOR

A PROLONGED PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT

MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ALL

MODELS INDICATING OVER AN INCH OF QPF TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER ST LWR

VLY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MSTR AND

FORCING. GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR

PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHEN RATES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN

EXPECTED. AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DUE

PROLONGED MIXING. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALSO IN ST LWR VLY AS NOTED

ABOVE.

SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL THEN

TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES

ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SURFACE LOW HEADS THROUGH THE GULF

OF MAINE. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE PM.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S.

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