weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 So much for Chicago's blizzard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So much for Chicago's blizzard.... Their pack was fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Tell me how I'm wrong...unless you're basing your forecast soley on the outlier Euro whose own ensembles don't support the op Its funny how the EURO is god if it shows cold/snow (even if it is out there on its own with no support), but if its showing warmth then toss it. I agree that its likely wrong, but I would say that even if was showing a cold/snowy long range solution with no support. Its always comical to me how we pick and chose when to use certain models depending on the amount of cold/snow they show, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 If he tips his cap. I shoulda lost that stupid cap.. lol. 15" average snow depth left after the torch.. I was still at 17" yesterday evening during the TSTM's with A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I shoulda lost that stupid cap.. lol. 15" average snow depth left after the torch.. We have about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Their pack was fluff. But they had some snow OTG prior. But yes...high water content FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Does this mean the snowpack is now ripe? yes for melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its funny how the EURO is god if it shows cold/snow (even if it is out there on its own with no support), but if its showing warmth then toss it. I agree that its likely wrong, but I would say that even if was showing a cold/snowy long range solution with no support. Its always comical to me how we pick and chose when to use certain models depending on the amount of cold/snow they show, lol. A couple of weeks ago the EURO was giving us a snowstorm @ 48hrs out and many of us were still weary of a rainer.... it ended up as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 So much for Chicago's blizzard.... My sister said that she went to work yesterday with ~6" on the ground, and when she got out there was nothing left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 yes for melting. That's what ripe means when referring to snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I shoulda lost that stupid cap.. lol. 15" average snow depth left after the torch.. paul what are your thoughts on sun nite- mon am. accum wise? edit it's snowin lil weak band over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Does this mean the snowpack is now ripe? Clouds high surface temps mess in with sensors not any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 But they had some snow OTG prior. But yes...high water content FTW. Though they avg colder, we are more risistent to major torches if that makes sense....we can have one index save us, since we are in the NE corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 A couple of weeks ago the EURO was giving us a snowstorm @ 48hrs out and many of us were still weary of a rainer.... it ended up as rain. Oh I know, I'm just poking fun. If the EURO was showing cold and snow though in the long range, you know we'd be riding that regardless of what the other models show. This just hasn't been the best winter for dear ol' ECMWF... it has gotten its arse handed to it several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Though they avg colder, we are more risistent to major torches if that makes sense....we can have one index save us, since we are in the NE corner. I know the Chicago climo well..have spent many a day there in all seasons. Bottom line is they are famous for a plethora of 1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8 but the big events are rare. So when they torch...good bye snow. And we being east of the apps can hold onto low level cold much to our dismay in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I know the Chicago climo well..have spent many a day there in all seasons. Bottom line is they are famous for a plethora of 1-3, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8 but the big events are rare. So when they torch...good bye snow. And we being east of the apps can hold onto low level cold much to our dismay in June. Yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That's what ripe means when referring to snowpack. with a few cold days....do you think we can cool it off. (interesting how it works) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Though they avg colder, we are more risistent to major torches if that makes sense....we can have one index save us, since we are in the NE corner. Yeah, the midwest is not very resistant to torches at all... there's nothing stopping warmth from surging northward. No mountains, ocean, or any other geographic barrier to stop Texas heat from blasting north into the Great Lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yeah, the midwest is not very resistant to torches at all... there's nothing stopping warmth from surging northward. No mountains, ocean, or any other geographic barrier to stop Texas heat from blasting north into the Great Lakes region. Or GOM warmth and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 with a few cold days....do you think we can cool it off. (interesting how it works) Good question. Intuitively one would think so as all other solid objects around cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z gfs is a sight for snowy eyes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Good question. Intuitively one would think so as all other solid objects around cool off. anyone know this. how easily does a ripened snowpack of 12-18 inches cool off. or can it? bigger dentrite's falling now. i wonder if a ripened snowpack is more difficult to hold new snow on. i.e 5 inches of fluff falling on a 25 degree snow pack isn't going anywhere. but 5 inches falling on a 32degree snowpack..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 It's too early for the chest bumping jackpot claimers. The PV will help limit the nwd extent, but a Plains low will always have the chance to bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 anyone know this. how easily does a ripened snowpack of 12-18 inches cool off. or can it? bigger dentrite's falling now. i wonder if a ripened snowpack is more difficult to hold new snow on. i.e 5 inches of fluff falling on a 25 degree snow pack isn't going anywhere. but 5 inches falling on a 32degree snowpack..? I will be right back, will grab the labs equipment, take some temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 18z gfs is a sight for snowy eyes!! I don't even have to look at it to know its not a sight for snowy eyes up here based on that post, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I disagree with the Boston/Chicago torch debate. Although it's difficult for Logan Airport to torch during the winter, my guess is there are more 50+ degrees during the winter in the immediate Boston area (617 area code....) than in Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I disagree with the Boston/Chicago torch debate. Although it's difficult for Logan Airport to torch during the winter, my guess is there are more 50+ degrees during the winter in the immediate Boston area (617 area code....) than in Chicagoland. Probably true, but the immediate Boston area is not indicative of most of New England's climo... BOS is probably one of the warmest spots in New England during the winter... aside from places like far SE MA and the coastal CT/RI areas. Chicago to me seems like it would be closer to being indicative of the surrounding midwestern area climo, than BOS is to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL at the 18z GFS.. I assume the QPF looks similar to the Euro? Or at least more like the Euro's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Probably true, but the immediate Boston area is not indicative of most of New England's climo... BOS is probably one of the warmest spots in New England during the winter... aside from places like far SE MA and the coastal CT/RI areas. Chicago to me seems like it would be closer to being indicative of the surrounding midwestern area climo, than BOS is to New England. No. Climo is solidly 3F colder than NYC and just looking at snow climo, is roughly similar to BDL but a few degrees warmer. Chicago only has more 50F days when the pattern indicates but Harveyleonardfan is correct (I think) in presuming they average less 50F days simply because Chicago is a colder (by a modest margin) place. -10F in Chicago is approached often. It's quite an event when it happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LOL at the 18z GFS.. I assume the QPF looks similar to the Euro? Or at least more like the Euro's? Based on what Scott said im assuming the 18z gfs is similar to the euro. Def discard those two in favor of the snowiest models based on the nams stellar track record this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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