Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 3-5" incoming and not many people amped up... I am cranking Santanas new album drinking home brew given to me by MPFDs finest, very amped now that the warministas are back in the closet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I am cranking Santanas new album drinking home brew given to me by MPFDs finest, very amped now that the warministas are back in the closet. lol in the fetal position so andy says at least 6 for monday wouldn't suprise him wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Meanwhile down in Md on 95, wildfires everywhere, a real torch winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Well, for a guy who drinks tea and enjoys Mass grown, you always seem amped up How long does it take to hike up Greylock with skis and boots? Is Thunderbolt nasty? I do it in about 75 minutes I guess. Never wear a watch. Don't have any pics from the last hike up as my friend took them that day and hasn't forwarded any. Some parts are very steep and there are a few easier sections but overall a good workout. About 2,100' vertical. I've been snowshoeing with skis on my back. It allows me to move up steeper pitches than i would be able to do skinning. Here's a photo essay Pete Nelson did in Jan. Fun trek but not for the faint of heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 SREFs looks pretty suppressed kind of like the 18z GFS. It seems as though a lot of the afternoon guidance came in flatter...we'll see if that carries over into the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Meanwhile down in Md on 95, wildfires everywhere, a real torch winter I'd do myself in rather than live in a snowless hell hole like that.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'd do myself in rather than live in a snowless hell hole like that.lol You think Tip is bad in an Epic year LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walpole Joe Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Beautiful return to winter, up in NH with howling wind, flurries, and 14 on the thermo....love when the skin is red when you come in from the outside! Kids sleeping, beer cold, and winter back, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 amazing that lone PV moving toward NNE is really the only thing making this a favorable squeeze play on monday and not a nasty runner up over the eastern lakes. and yet it's possible for some it hurts more than helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'd do myself in rather than live in a snowless hell hole like that.lol Better than the frozen, depressing tundra you guys live in! ...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What a tease this storm is going to be for SNE... Drops 12+ from SD to PA only to get suppressed here.... Good for me though as a non-snow fan for the rest of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is suppressed similar to the 21z SREF mean. Its still showing that ML fronto though further north than it has its qpf, so we'll have to watch that. It shows up well on the RH fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 What a tease this storm is going to be for SNE... Drops 12+ from SD to PA only to get suppressed here.... Good for me though as a non-snow fan for the rest of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 NAM is suppressed similar to the 21z SREF mean. Its still showing that ML fronto though further north than it has its qpf, so we'll have to watch that. It shows up well on the RH fields. 3-6", here....suppressed qpf fields are crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 storm cancel. The rest of the season will be wrought with disappointment. COT will be clinging to fading glimmers of hope through May while I'm playing frisbee by the river with my hippie friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Like runs from other models the best dynamics are south of a lot of us. We keep talking about this sneaking north as each run goes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 3-6", here....suppressed qpf fields are crap. it's a tough call. there's merit to both ideas - suppressed vs more robust/coming north. the mid-level lift is really organized and potent over PA/NY...they have a good burst of WAA and a really tight thermal gradient. if that can hold together and transition across the area most should make out well. hopefully it doesn't get squelched and become a disorganized mess as it runs across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 3-6", here....suppressed qpf fields are crap. love where it is tonight, we know what happens tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 love where it is tonight, we know what happens tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 it's a tough call. there's merit to both ideas - suppressed vs more robust/coming north. the mid-level lift is really organized and potent over PA/NY...they have a good burst of WAA and a really tight thermal gradient. if that can hold together and transition across the area most should make out well. hopefully it doesn't get squelched and become a disorganized mess as it runs across the region. Its pretty rare for the southern tier of NY to get smoked and we don't get it as much on these isentropic lift systems, but maybe this is one of the few where it happens. I still like the idea of high end advisory though for most of the area with someone getting lucky on a narrow 6-8" type stripe. Whether that is in CT or closer to this area remains to be seen. The PV lobe will help keeping it suppressed but on the flip side we have a stout SE ridge and the robust system in the plains to try and make this come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Like runs from other models the best dynamics are south of a lot of us. We keep talking about this sneaking north as each run goes south. Like we kept talking about the best QPF slipping s in your "split system", 12.5" later...... Mid levels looking good is enough for me to still expect a plowable snow, though I understand the concern over the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Like runs from other models the best dynamics are south of a lot of us. We keep talking about this sneaking north as each run goes south. Don't you have the March issue of "Modern Lawn Tractor" to read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 storm cancel. The rest of the season will be wrought with disappointment. COT will be clinging to fading glimmers of hope through May while I'm playing frisbee by the river with my hippie friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Better than playing frisbee with half naked guys wearing galoshes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 When will people learn that the mid levels are of paramount importance; is the PV a concern, yes......valid argument, but I don't get contingent that is scoffing at the idea of a signifcant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Like we kept talking about the best QPF slipping s in your "split system", 12.5" later...... Mid levels looking good is enough for me to still expect a plowable snow, though I understand the concern over the PV. I think an expectation of 3-5" with possibility of some 6"+ amounts in a stripe is pretty reasonable at this point. Even the uglier runs are giving us 2-3" but still have a signature in the mid-levels of something a bit better than that. If we start seeing the best ML fronto over New Haven on all guidance by 12z tomorrow, then we can be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 amazing that lone PV moving toward NNE is really the only thing making this a favorable squeeze play on monday and not a nasty runner up over the eastern lakes. and yet it's possible for some it hurts more than helps. midrange models did well with the whole idea, showing the low running into the PV (save for a few hiccup runs) and getting pushed south. euro was outstading with this event showing the general idea from a week out it seems. euro has been excellent the last little while. im quite pleased with the stable pattern of the PV on the models.....pretty obvious that i didnt need to waste anytime on this one from day one and it looks to workout that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I think an expectation of 3-5" with possibility of some 6"+ amounts in a stripe is pretty reasonable at this point. Even the uglier runs are giving us 2-3" but still have a signature in the mid-levels of something a bit better than that. If we start seeing the best ML fronto over New Haven on all guidance by 12z tomorrow, then we can be concerned. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 When will people learn that the mid levels are of paramount importance; is the PV a concern, yes......valid argument, but I don't get contingent that is scoffing at the idea of a signifcant snow. lol...well i haven't been on here all day so i hope that wasn't aimed at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 lol...well i haven't been on here all day so i hope that wasn't aimed at me. Not at all...I think we can all guess who it was aimed at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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