sauss06 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro gives me like 6". Wohoo for now i think 4-5" would be a safe bet for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 for now i think 4-5" would be a safe bet for me Whatever. lol just as long as it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Geez. Keeps getting windier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Euro has a decent storm for most of us Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Along and north of FIG-SEG are cold enough for wintry precip for the first round Sunday night into Monday AM as well. JST- .65 AOO- .65 MDT- .4 FIG - 1.5 from both events with 850s below freezing. UNV- 1.3 from both lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Hit 67 here, now 65. and its cloudy. Could of really wamed up if it was sunny. The snow/ice pack is gone finnaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 58 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Pretty nice sunset this eve, got a few pics while I was outside doing a bit of sorta spring cleaning. And my iphone even put them right side up this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 MDT broke a 120 year old record today with a record high of 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 well our snowpack made it through the day...no bare spots in the yard. actually still have 3-6 inches on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 well our snowpack made it through the day...no bare spots in the yard. actually still have 3-6 inches on the ground You guys may be in for quite a bit of everything starting Sunday. 21z SREF are juicy and cold. The 2m temps don't get above freezing from roughly the pike northward in sw pa, then once to the mtns it straddles the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 You guys may be in for quite a bit of everything starting Sunday. 21z SREF are juicy and cold. The 2m temps don't get above freezing from roughly the pike northward in sw pa, then once to the mtns it straddles the M/D line. Should we be watching this now for a good shot of wintry precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Should we be watching this now for a good shot of wintry precip? Absolutely. You guys north of JST-MDT look to be in a good spot for snow and ice Sunday evening through Monday. The second round (Monday evening through Tuesday looks to be focused across the southern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NWS not impressed...Rain sunday night, nothing with the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NWS not impressed...Rain sunday night, nothing with the next storm. I think they have a pretty good discussion... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE CHANNELED SEWD INTO PA IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE FRI FROPA. COMBO OF TIGHT SFC PRES GRAD..EFFICIENT/DEEP MIXING VIA STG LLVL CAA AND VERY STEEP/DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD TAP 50-60KT H85 MOMENTUM ATOP THE BL AND PRODUCE FREQUENT SFC WND GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE. WILL CONVEY THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS/GUSTS IN THE HWO. ATTM..IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVY WIND EVENT BASED ON MAGNITUDE OF THE LLVL +U-WIND ANOMALIES AND BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES/MOMENTUM TRANSFER. XPCT WNDS TO STAY GUSTY THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS SAT BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES EWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT NGT. MDL DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA EARLY SUN MORNG. RECENT PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A MEAN WEST COAST TROF AND FLAT RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND ERN CONUS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER WEEK..AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SWD OVER AN STRONG ERN PAC RIDGE..ESSENTIALLY RELOADING THE WEST COAST TROF. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES THIS MEAN PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF EWD PROGRESSION AS THE TROF/NEG HGT ANOMALIES MOVE INLAND OVR THE INTERMTN REGION WHILE AVG HGTS AND BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED DOWNSTREAM ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THAT BEING SAID..THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUN-TUE FCST. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LESS PREDICTABLE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT 12Z MDL CHANGES IN THEIR HANDLING OF NRN STREAM TROF ENERGY OVR SRN CANADA..WHICH ULTIMATELY HAS SIG IMPLICATIONS ON PLAINS TO E-CENTRAL CONUS SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL EVOLUTION EWD ACRS THE GRT LKS/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLC STATES. TO VARYING DEGREES..THE NAM/GFS AND UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD GREATER SWWD ELONGATION OF THE TROF OVER SRN CANADA..WHICH COMBINED WITH LEADING WRN CONUS ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...LEADS TO MID-UPPER MS VLY SFC DEVELOPMENT THAT IS FARTHER NWD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS. HPC PREFERENCE THRU F84 LEANS TWD A SLIGHTLY SWD ADJUSTED VERSION OF A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE AT THE SFC...WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR FROM WHAT THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL SHOW. THE ECMWF IS RATHER SUPPRESSED AND ON THE SRN/PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. BY F96 THE GFS/CMC IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NWD THAN THE 12Z GEFS MEAN /WHICH LOOKS LIKE A SOLID INTERMEDIATE SOLN AT THIS POINT/..WITH A SFC LOW TRACK ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL WI/MI TO THE ERN GRT LKS/SRN ONTARIO VCNTY. THIS NRN TRACK WOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF WARM AIR TO SURGE NEWD IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SUPPORT A FROZEN/FREEZING TO MOSTLY LIQUID PTYPE TRANSITION SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH ON THE NWD WARM-AIR INTRUSION OWING TO A MORE SWD LOW TRACK/THERMAL RIBBON. THE GFS/CMC TRAILING FNTL ZONE WOULD THEN PUSH SEWD ACRS THE REGION LATER MONDAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FROPA. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS..THE GLOBAL MDLS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DEVELOP A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FM THE OH/TN VLY EWD ACRS THE SRN MID-ATLC. THE GUIDANCE ALSO HANDLES THIS FEATURE QUITE DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GEFS AND CMC WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE..WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER. THIS SYS AND ITS GENERAL TRACK TO THE S OF PA WOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL SNOWS IN FGEN/DEFORMATION REGION LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE ASSOCD PCPN SHIELD. HIGH PRES FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER TUE AND PROVIDES SEASONABLY COLD/FAIR WX THRU MID-WEEK. MDL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE MS VLY AND PERHAPS SPREADING ADDNL PCPN INTO THE AREA BY FRI. IN AN ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE COMPLEX DETAIL UNCERTAINTY..FINAL TEMP/POP ELEMENTS WERE DERIVED FROM AN BROAD BLEND OF AVAILABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 NWS not impressed...Rain sunday night, nothing with the next storm. 0z nam says everything but plain rain for you Sunday night. The second storm will likely miss you to the south..... but let's see what #1 does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 mehh at this point not to impressed, would take the 1-3"....thats if we can get it to snow. side note, I def enjoyed the high of 59°F today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 mehh at this point not to impressed, would take the 1-3"....thats if we can get it to snow. side note, I def enjoyed the high of 59°F today! The first wave shouldn't be a big deal.... like you said 1-3" of mess. The second storm for Mon PM into Tuesday is a bigger story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Where's Zak? Winds are pretty strong on the latest wrf for Sat.... stronger than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Bleh...an inch or so...then nothing but a miss to the south. Bring on 60s and Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 mehh at this point not to impressed, would take the 1-3"....thats if we can get it to snow. side note, I def enjoyed the high of 59°F today! Agreed man, this weather has me ready for spring. I'd rather have it 56 and sunny than get sleet/freezing rain, or sub advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 MDT broke a 120 year old record today with a record high of 67. Honestly, yesterday put me in the mood for spring and outdoor activities. it was nice to sit on the patio after work and enjoy and adult frosty beverage. So basically zippo on round 1 Sunday into Monday, but on round 2 those of us in the lower Susky valley could get a couple inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 1st event looking drier and warmer....second event could be an advisory event for southern strip of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Woke up to my thermometer saying it's 57 outside. I guess we can't complain about that for a February morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Woke up to my thermometer saying it's 57 outside. I guess we can't complain about that for a February morning. no complaints from here i'll tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Honestly, yesterday put me in the mood for spring and outdoor activities. it was nice to sit on the patio after work and enjoy and adult frosty beverage. So basically zippo on round 1 Sunday into Monday, but on round 2 those of us in the lower Susky valley could get a couple inches? Actually, some of the models are suggesting more than that for us with round #2. I saw Tombo posted over in his thread that the southern tier counties get 8"-12" on one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Bleh...an inch or so...then nothing but a miss to the south. Bring on 60s and Sun Agreed man, this weather has me ready for spring. I'd rather have it 56 and sunny than get sleet/freezing rain, or sub advisory snows. Can't expect 60s and sun, though. I hear people here saying winter is over and I hear it every year and shake my head. The same people end up being angry at the weather when it snows in March. Two reasons why this is delusional: - at least here, your odds of a big snowstorm are higher in March. Any argument to this gets beaten about the head and face by the fact that five or the top ten UNV snowstorms occurred in March. - Springs here can be real slogs, even into early May. One other thing, you can't go on one model run with this upcoming system. BTW, the two PSU met profs I work with on ed tech stuff here joked that they will automatically flunk any student who believes a single model run will happen 3-5 days out before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Actually, some of the models are suggesting more than that for us with round #2. I saw Tombo posted over in his thread that the southern tier counties get 8"-12" on one run. On the Euro UNV gets an inch of QPF but some of that falls as rain at first and goes to snow. Hard to tell how much is snow due to six hour increments. MDT gets .57 of all snow with second system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Can't expect 60s and sun, though. I hear people here saying winter is over and I hear it every year and shake my head. The same people end up being angry at the weather when it snows in March. Two reasons why this is delusional: - at least here, your odds of a big snowstorm are higher in March. Any argument to this gets beaten about the head and face by the fact that five or the top ten UNV snowstorms occurred in March. - Springs here can be real slogs, even into early May. One other thing, you can't go on one model run with this upcoming system. BTW, the two PSU met profs I work with on ed tech stuff here joked that they will automatically flunk any student who believes a single model run will happen 3-5 days out before a storm. Preach it, brother. You only have to go back 4 years when I hit 80F and 2 days later I had over 10" of the white stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 1st event looking drier and warmer....second event could be an advisory event for southern strip of counties. Actually, some of the models are suggesting more than that for us with round #2. I saw Tombo posted over in his thread that the southern tier counties get 8"-12" on one run. On the Euro UNV gets an inch of QPF but some of that falls as rain at first and goes to snow. Hard to tell how much is snow due to six hour increments. MDT gets .57 of all snow with second system. Not aimed at maytown's post at all, but..... Central PA posters, please.......don't make blanket misleading statements unless you know for sure what you are talking about; i.e. you have examples, proof, etc. It doesn't help trying to figure out what is reality and what is a post made due to wishful thinking, tantrums, emotion, etc. Not trying to rip you just trying to improve discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Preach it, brother. You only have to go back 4 years when I hit 80F and 2 days later I had over 10" of the white stuff... That was insane. Never forget that. I remember people were literally angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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