Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The NAM is not a BM track. I know...but model concensus/ens concensus is. This is a snow event for a large majority of SNE. Nothing has changed on that for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 the only place in SNE that isn't plain rain is Pete on the 12z NAM...and it's just a ip/zr mix for him. that's a remarkable difference in available products at basically just over 48 hours out. I personally think the NAM is overplaying the amplitude of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The NAM is not a BM track. LOL I'd agree the NAM is not a BM track. It's actually over NYC. the only place in SNE that isn't plain rain is Pete on the 12z NAM...and it's just a ip/zr mix for him. that's a remarkable difference in available products at basically just over 48 hours out. I wonder if we'll see those differences vanish with the rest of this run? All the other models develop the low in association with the first s/w complex. That's been the case all winter...NAM wants to keep it really tight to the main m/l which kind of seems out of place but maybe with no much real cold in advance it's seeing something this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 the only place in SNE that isn't plain rain is Pete on the 12z NAM...and it's just a ip/zr mix for him. that's a remarkable difference in available products at basically just over 48 hours out. I'm usually a pessimist, but I feel as though climo actually favors the low to pop up east of where the NAM is currently depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 sam and brian cash in nicely on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z NAM looks pretty similar to 00z NAM with the warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 la la lock it up haha, everyone in SE NE is angry while we are happy. Someone is going to have to lose on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z NAM looks pretty similar to 00z NAM with the warm solution. I am hiking in the Whites Sunday, if the NAM verfied, they would getting killed Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z NAM looks pretty similar to 00z NAM with the warm solution. We are all set verbatium on the nam here, Another 4-8" or more up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 haha, everyone in SE NE is angry while we are happy. Someone is going to have to lose on this storm. LOL, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 LOL, We get dry slotted with a track over Will or even west...so very little harm done to our roofs or snowpack. Not sure I'm loving what seems to be a trend NW in the storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 LOL, Hey, our turn, you guys got destroyed all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 We get dry slotted with a track over Will or even west...so very little harm done to our roofs or snowpack. Not sure I'm loving what seems to be a trend NW in the storms lately. My roof and snowpack are just fine. Maybe 6" on the roof. House is 6 years old and properly ventilated. Gutters/downspouts are clogged but there is not much to do there. About 18" on the ground and I am sure it's pretty bullet proof this AM after the freeze overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hey, our turn, you guys got destroyed all winter. That's fine but to say we're all angry is nonsense. I don't care what the outcome is personally. NAM is on the western edge of guidance presently so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Folks really think the NAM is correct?? With no other model agreeing with it. Ok then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I personally think the NAM is overplaying the amplitude of this thing. It probably is...it's actually pretty close to a very nice solution for SNE. It closes off at 700mb over Ray's head...which I think is the furthest south I've seen a model do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's fine but to say we're all angry is nonsense. I don't care what the outcome is personally. NAM is on the western edge of guidance presently so take it with a grain of salt. Definitely not angry, here. With that being said, I do NOT want to see a rain event, although I don't think that is going to happen for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That's fine but to say we're all angry is nonsense. I don't care what the outcome is personally. NAM is on the western edge of guidance presently so take it with a grain of salt. Yeah, was more joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Folks really think the NAM is correct?? With no other model agreeing with it. Ok then . No, I just think a warmer solution cannot be ruled out for the very reasons WIll gave last night. It probably is...it's actually pretty close to a very nice solution for SNE. It closes off at 700mb over Ray's head...which I think is the furthest south I've seen a model do that. It tried to go colder early on...just failed. It's not that far off. All year the coastals develop closer to the leading s/w's ejecting well east of the main m/l...not sure why this time the NAM isn't going for that like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 nice steady mood oes snows out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Folks really think the NAM is correct?? With no other model agreeing with it. Ok then . Nah, it's likely not correct. Just another piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I'm not agreeing with it, Just reading what it shows verbatim on this run like everyone else on here does, Whether it snows in our area or not is still to be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Holy hell.. another 6-12 on the NAM 45-50" snow pack FTW.. It keeps trending stronger with the CCB too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Nah, it's likely not correct. Just another piece of the puzzle. lol, If the track falls between the Nam and the other models we still see snow up here, Thats all that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Damn nam ftw....too bad its the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 No, I just think a warmer solution cannot be ruled out for the very reasons WIll gave last night. It tried to go colder early on...just failed. It's not that far off. All year the coastals develop closer to the leading s/w's ejecting well east of the main m/l...not sure why this time the NAM isn't going for that like the other models. Right...while strong and amplified...the 500mb vort max is close to moving off the coast south of New England at 60 hours...which is further south then the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I definitly think a track further east will happen. But still a decent snow for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z NAM is pretty nice looking. Pops a 700mb low over southeast MA just in time to nail the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 lol, If the track falls between the Nam and the other models we still see snow up here, Thats all that matters Yes, we're in a good spot. I do feel the NAM is too far north -- favoring a track around ACK presently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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