eekuasepinniW Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It is colder vs 12z. Have seen through hour 36. It may ping along the Pike by Noon but probably not before and could be an hour or 3 after. I'm betting 930 to 1030 it pings in Boston. Double or nothing on dinner. At 21h it's a tick warmer through the layers as the CT is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New HPC probs...seemed to beef up a bit from previous update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice squall line going through MS right now. One hell of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is that the Park Plaza Hotel? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks like about another inch or so, give or take down here. I wouldn't worry about it. Gotta subtract whatever the NAM has between 18z and 00z for today's event. It looks lime mostly 0.60-0.85" for tomorrow's event to me...which makes sense given the synoptic setup. Its a fast moving SWFE thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What is the thickness now? We know what ground truth has been today and snow/sleet made it to within 30 miles of Boston. Got to respect climo...it snows, rains, but rarely sleets for long periods here. It could cut off and dry but my guess is we're in for another big time thump. 1993-94...wonder what those thicknesses were....same prog..equal failure. While models have verified warm at your place, they have tended to verify colder here for most of the storms. looks to me like the column stays below freezing through a sizable chunk of the good stuff. i think you'll do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is into the idea of hanging back some SN/SNSH tomorrow night/early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Dryslot, on 01 February 2011 - 02:58 PM, said:Is that the Park Plaza Hotel? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What is the thickness now? We know what ground truth has been today and snow/sleet made it to within 30 miles of Boston. Got to respect climo...it snows, rains, but rarely sleets for long periods here. It could cut off and dry but my guess is we're in for another big time thump. 1993-94...wonder what those thicknesses were....same prog..equal failure. While models have verified warm at your place, they have tended to verify colder here for most of the storms. They actually busted too cold today. 18z NAM had the 1000/700 CT just to my south at 18z when it had flipped an hour before. But essentially the nose of the 1000/700 was the change line or actually just north of it. The NAM draws that same line over Boston by 10am, then to the NH border three hours later FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 borderline yeah...looks like ZR to me. that's a pretty thick/warm layer It's pretty damn close...another thing to take into consideration is IF the NAM is 100% correct with the thermal profile...a 1-2C difference in that warm layer could have a HUGE impact here. That's a pretty sick wind profile too in the 750-850mb layer...going from about 75 knots to 55 knots from the SW...so could have a bit more in the way of WAA than what is modeled...have to watch this real closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New HPC probs...seemed to beef up a bit from previous update why does the ice thread diminish toward E CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah what an epic battle. Just runs into the Vince Wilfork of cold. Like button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This ambiance snow is accumulating. 6'' on the button now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm betting 930 to 1030 it pings in Boston. Double or nothing on dinner. At 21h it's a tick warmer through the layers as the CT is further north. BTW, 18z RUC had a much better handle on temps, and has for this entire event one. It's run about 10 miles north of the NAM....and does that throughout tonight too. Just food for thought, I'm screwed either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 why does the ice thread diminish toward E CT? I would assume they might get more into the way of rain perhaps...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 looks to me like the column stays below freezing through a sizable chunk of the good stuff. i think you'll do pretty well. Yeah, I'm liking things for the most part. Sure I'll mix with IP, but I think I'll thump pretty hard beforehand. It's the 2 hours on either side of 15z that are critical. That could mean the difference of 6" I'll be home tomorrow, so the obs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We're going to pick up another 6-10 with some sleet to lock this baby in place till June....lol.. Jerry, I'm thinking 4", sleety-mix for an hour or so, two hours of rain, and then the shutoff before a little back end fluff sweeps through in the late-late. But I, of course, prefer your outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How much would you expect for BOS tmrw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still thinking we may be able to get a good 1-3''/2-4'' thump of snow before the changeover crap occurs tomorrow...this is something to keep an eye on as well as this snow might be a bit more heavy than today's stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SnowNH...I know your posts are extremely valuable...but could you spare one to say how much you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, I'm liking things for the most part. Sure I'll mix with IP, but I think I'll thump pretty hard beforehand. It's the 2 hours on either side of 15z that are critical. That could mean the difference of 6" I'll be home tomorrow, so the obs should be interesting. My gut tells me that I'll probably mix right around 15z which may cut down totals. Hoping it's closer to noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Jerry, I'm thinking 4", sleety-mix for an hour or so, two hours of rain, and then the shutoff before a little back end fluff sweeps through in the late-late. But I, of course, prefer your outlook. It will not rain...that I'm sure of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, I'm liking things for the most part. Sure I'll mix with IP, but I think I'll thump pretty hard beforehand. It's the 2 hours on either side of 15z that are critical. That could mean the difference of 6" I'll be home tomorrow, so the obs should be interesting. the good thing is it looks like the best VVs cross the region at the ideal time for you to fight back that mid-level warmth. i'm sure you noticed by 18z, the good stuff is all offshore...tough to tell on the 3hr progs exactly what happens in there but it seemed like the earlier runs of the nam had that warm layer timed out basically just behind that strongest surge of omega. in a sense, we've beaten this event to a pulp but there's still plenty of fun things to watch shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z nam cut qpf back quite a bit from 12z and its further east up here, But its the 18z Nam. GYX Upped amounts again on their map. GYX Snowfall Totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SnowNH...I know your posts are extremely valuable...but could you spare one to say how much you have? Either "OMG 5 FEET OF SNOW AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS" or "This is horrible. Storm cancel. No snow. Sunny. What an epic bust by every forecaster alive" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Either "OMG 5 FEET OF SNOW AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS" or "This is horrible. Storm cancel. No snow. Sunny. What an epic bust by every forecaster alive" Lol. We're going to end up in the ballpark of 16'', I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the good thing is it looks like the best VVs cross the region at the ideal time for you to fight back that mid-level warmth. i'm sure you noticed by 18z, the good stuff is all offshore...tough to tell on the 3hr progs exactly what happens in there but it seemed like the earlier runs of the nam had that warm layer timed out basically just behind that strongest surge of omega. in a sense, we've beaten this event to a pulp but there's still plenty of fun things to watch shake out. That's for sure..lol. Gonna be some fun nowcasting perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 7.2" storm total here for part 1. Just some light sleet right now. Hoping for a good early thump tomorrow. Any word on BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ice Storm warning out for parts of SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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