Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Tried to plug us on the livestream and called it eastern lol Doh! I am laughing my azz off right now as Matt is tearing the NAM a new one. "Yeah NAM, it's going to be a flat wave" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Scott what I respect the most about you is your outright honesty even if it flies in the face of weenieism. Maybe I didn't pay attention in the past, but this year you seem to really lay it out there in all directions, all options and if something tosses a red flag in your mind even if it's small you throw it out there. I appreciate that, I know everyone else does too. It's pretty rare, and I have a ton of respect for you for doing it. Eh, not that worried about it either way my friend. If you look at the high res twister maps, it's got the micro low coming onshore of west florida...yeah I know it's a convective complex....it kind of plays with that and I think they really disrupt it's surface low presentation. BUT, I don't think there's any doubt the mid/high level moisture will initially miss us SE as Bouchard said. Then we have to wait for the low to wrap up. This may be where the NAM is falling down, not developing that low enough, but again, two stage storm on these models and the first stage whiffs. If you follow the NAM through there's three things going on: 1st: The feature that is now on the coast driving all the convection comes up and misses WIDE right. GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM et all...show this IMO. I think this is maybe a lock, will be a lock post rest of suite. 2nd. The feature in the eastern GOM, rides NNE into the SE US. THIS starts to develop as it continues to move NE, the moisture expands as it comes across NC. Spin it through at 700, this feature ends up being rolled into the developing comma head. 3rd. M/L main moves across draws in #2, this is the entirety of the NAM solution, 3 moving parts. No comment on accuracy, if it's falling down it's with part 2. Thanks for the nice words Scott. I don't like seeing it, but I think it's lovin' the convection too much. So called convective feedback is real to some extent, but I think the NAM is going nuts with it and forcing the low to scoot ene a lot more than it should. My guess is the GFS is as good or even a little better than 18z. Who knows, maybe it goes se, but given all the other guidance...me thinks the NAM is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt N is pointing out this is tapping moisture from near the Yucatan... jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Noyes livestream is very entertaining lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Might as post it just so it's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Whole lotta low level moisture down on the South Coast tonight. Westerly and Newport are both reporting freezing fog with temps of 16 and 19. But I gotta wonder who's manning these reporting stations....because both are reporting visibilities of a quarter mile and it's not that low where I'm at LOL ASOS, means Automatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Doh! I am laughing my azz off right now as Matt is tearing the NAM a new one. "Yeah NAM, it's going to be a flat wave" If he'd take a second and read the NCEP status message maybe he'd chill out. With the 1/25/00 event one of the key things Brian caught that day was a missing RAOB in I think Texas or New Orleans right at a key time. I remember we were hammering the big dog solution and a run came in that didn't do what we thought...and sure enough that was the problem. It probably made a difference tonight, especially with th later wrap up. IMO, I actually suspect it could be a big part of the problem pending the rest of the suite...and if it is the status message has been up since 835pm...well.... I Thanks for the nice words Scott. I don't like seeing it, but I think it's lovin' the convection too much. So called convective feedback is real to some extent, but I think the NAM is going nuts with it and forcing the low to scoot ene a lot more than it should. My guess is the GFS is as good or even a little better than 18z. Who knows, maybe it goes se, but given all the other guidance...me thinks the NAM is suspect. Yep, I'm not reacting much either way. Can see why it's doing it....can also see why it could easily be wrong without the baloon down in Tampa. Two failed obs in critical areas...ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Noyes livestream is very entertaining lol Annoying that I can't get the stream on my iPad. Feels like I'm missing something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If he'd take a second and read the NCEP status message maybe he'd chill out. With the 1/25/00 event one of the key things Brian caught that day was a missing RAOB in I think Texas or New Orleans right at a key time. I remember we were hammering the big dog solution and a run came in that didn't do what we thought...and sure enough that was the problem. It probably made a difference tonight, especially with th later wrap up. IMO, I actually suspect it could be a big part of the problem pending the rest of the suite...and if it is the status message has been up since 835pm...well.... Yep, I'm not reacting much either way. Can see why it's doing it....can also see why it could easily be wrong without the baloon down in Tampa. Two failed obs in critical areas...ugh. He's well aware of the status message. IIt's boiling down to the NAM blowing up the SLP on that piece of vorticity offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Might as post it just so it's here. Is that the sites version? How is it usually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think Matt Noyes might be on crack right now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This from PHI AFD at 9:00 BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, PCPN ITSELF IS LAGGING THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF AND WRF-NMM COMPROMISE VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z. THE 18Z GFS .01 ISOHYET WAS ABOUT 75 MILES TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, ITS 0.10 ISOHYET WAS VERIFYING BETTER FOR THE START OF THE MEASURABLE. WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOME MODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (IN ALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYING THE BEST THERE. AS FOR THE 500MB PATTERN, THE TROF IS NOT AS SHARP AS MODELED, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 10-20M LOWER. THE RIDGING THEN TOWARD US WAS PRETTY CLOSE. THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW WAS SPOT ON. THE 850MB AND 925MB TEMP 12HR FORECASTS ARE VERIFYING ABOUT HALF A DEGREE TO DEGREE CELSIUS TOO LOW, WITH THE NAM HAVING THE LION'S SHARE OF THE COLD ERRORS. ECMWF WAS CLOSEST. IN THE SHORTER TERM, GIVEN THE LAG, WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET TO RAIN PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH LESS OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY RESPOND BACK UPWARD ONCE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE WEAKER TROF MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE TURN WE WOULD INFER WOULD BE MORE GRADUAL. THE THERMAL FIELD VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL GIVE US PAUSE TO SEE IF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CHANGES MUCH IN MAKING THE FINAL ADVISORY/WARNING DECISION. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is that the sites version? How is it usually? E-Wall WRF-NMM (12km) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 There are some posters on here that need a live streaming show like Noyes'...That would be some entertainment right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I wouldn't mind seeing that ULL further north on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 There are some posters on here that need a live streaming show like Noyes'...That would be some entertainment right there. I could imagine something like a hybride of the American radio show and Matt's livestream... skype or something. As long as the curse stays away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Great information thanks for sharing. I think one of the most critical parts is what they said about the trough not being as sharp..and that the turn may be more gradual compensating for northward displacement. I'm wondering about the surface low placement comment....even the 18z NAM had it over the Panhandle/extending into AL which is essentially what this shows from the SPC http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=18&parm=pmsl This from PHI AFD at 9:00 BASED ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, PCPN ITSELF IS LAGGING THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS, LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF AND WRF-NMM COMPROMISE VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z. THE 18Z GFS .01 ISOHYET WAS ABOUT 75 MILES TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, ITS 0.10 ISOHYET WAS VERIFYING BETTER FOR THE START OF THE MEASURABLE. WE ALSO SUSPECTED THE GULF COAST CONVECTION WOULD CAUSE SOME MODELING PROBLEMS AND THE SFC LOW VERIFIED MUCH FARTHER NORTH (IN ALABAMA) THAN MOST OF THE MODELS HAD, CAN GGEM AND ECMWF VERIFYING THE BEST THERE. AS FOR THE 500MB PATTERN, THE TROF IS NOT AS SHARP AS MODELED, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK WHERE HEIGHTS ARE 10-20M LOWER. THE RIDGING THEN TOWARD US WAS PRETTY CLOSE. THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED LOW WAS SPOT ON. THE 850MB AND 925MB TEMP 12HR FORECASTS ARE VERIFYING ABOUT HALF A DEGREE TO DEGREE CELSIUS TOO LOW, WITH THE NAM HAVING THE LION'S SHARE OF THE COLD ERRORS. ECMWF WAS CLOSEST. IN THE SHORTER TERM, GIVEN THE LAG, WE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SNOW OR SLEET TO RAIN PTYPE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH LESS OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED WITH THE THINNER CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY RESPOND BACK UPWARD ONCE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE WEAKER TROF MAY BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE TURN WE WOULD INFER WOULD BE MORE GRADUAL. THE THERMAL FIELD VERIFYING SLIGHTLY WARMER WILL GIVE US PAUSE TO SEE IF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CHANGES MUCH IN MAKING THE FINAL ADVISORY/WARNING DECISION. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 E-Wall WRF-NMM (12km) So correct me if I'm wrong because I don't use ewall, but it's a big miss for most? And at the same time what Leesun just posted from Philly says they are going for a compromise of the WRF NMM and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOL ASOS, means Automatic Don't be a smarta$$. How can can automated stations determine visibility? Because the Newport reporting station located in Middletown was reporting a .25 mile visibility and it was at least a couple miles.....What about the major airports? Is there a person reporting the visibility? There are automated reporting stations in our area like Montauk. BID and Provincetown and the visibility doesn't seem to be measured at these stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So correct me if I'm wrong because I don't use ewall, but it's a big miss for most? And at the same time what Leesun just posted from Philly says they are going for a compromise of the WRF NMM and Euro? It's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Matt Noyes is back on his live feed for anyone who left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Don't be a smarta$$. How can can automated stations determine visibility? Because the Newport reporting station located in Middletown was reporting a .25 mile visibility and it was at least a couple miles.....What about the major airports? Is there a person reporting the visibility? There are automated reporting stations in our area like Montauk. BID and Provincetown and the visibility doesn't seem to be measured at these stations. snowman21's asos fetish alarm just went off...he will be here in a few minutes to help explain asos and awos to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM is fine. I don't know, makes me think the missing OB is a big player here... Granted the heaviest is certainly SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Don't be a smarta$. How can can automated stations determine visibility? Because the Newport reporting station located in Middletown was reporting a .25 mile visibility and it was at least a couple miles.....What about the major airports? Is there a person reporting the visibility? There are automated reporting stations in our area like Montauk. BID and Provincetown and the visibility doesn't seem to be measured at these stations. They have sensors. http://www.nws.noaa....dfs/aum-toc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So correct me if I'm wrong because I don't use ewall, but it's a big miss for most? And at the same time what Leesun just posted from Philly says they are going for a compromise of the WRF NMM and Euro? It's just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM is fine. I don't know, makes me think the missing OB is a big player here... Granted the heaviest is certainly SE.... Also, there is the 24h panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Keep in mind that was based on 00z obs but not based on the 00z model run So correct me if I'm wrong because I don't use ewall, but it's a big miss for most? And at the same time what Leesun just posted from Philly says they are going for a compromise of the WRF NMM and Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 02z Ruc seems more consolidated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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