eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Closer to the coast but no QPF amounts at 42 hr on Plymouth. Looks like the 992mb contour on the UKMET matches the GFS, but the center of low pressure is well SW of the GFS at that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 you'd have to think its a least a little wetter than the GFS for that frame...I guess we'll see though it's about 100 miles further north at the same longitude (due south of the twin forks); however, it's about 5 mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 tremendous convection in the GOM this morning. Awesome mid level jet still aparent on wv. As we have seen time and time again this winter, 36 hours seems to have a solution somewhat s and e of the final result. We very mindful of this when looking at where the qpf blob is on these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That ETA run, also known as a member of the SREF, looks great for I-95 and ugly NW of there. I've never seen so many storms have such difficulty penetrating NW with the precip shield, even on the random models that go bonkers on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That ETA run, also known as a member of the SREF, looks great for I-95 and ugly NW of there. I've never seen so many storms have such difficulty penetrating NW with the precip shield, even on the random models that go bonkers on occasion. NOGAPS & GGEM a huge hit for entire NJ/NYC area....Deform band hits everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 in case anyone cares with this event still looming in the next 48 hrs, but the GFS looks very boxing day blizzard esque at 192 (at least at 500mb with 2 s/w over the CONUS). NAO isn't as negative but it looks like we have a robustly +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GGEM is as amplified as 00z if not more. still a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM appears very nice. At least 20mm for NYC. NYC is on the border of 10-25mm on the 36 panel, and well within 10-25mm on the 48 panel. Looks like DC-BWI gets smoked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 awesome view on WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm thinking the models amplify again somewhat tonight and early tomorrow. Still some time for shifts with this thing, and obviously with banded setups just a few miles is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 awesome view on WV Classic. I expect a NW jump from todays suite based on the obscene amount of heat in this system. 36 hours still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FYI didn't see this mentioned Mount Holly expanded their watches to cover all of the CWA except for Coastal Atlantic,Cape May and SUSSEX counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm thinking the models amplify again somewhat tonight and early tomorrow. Still some time for shifts with this thing, and obviously with banded setups just a few miles is key. Im glad its more about how much snow we get rather than snow vs rain. All the local mets are even latching onto this and saying it will be predominantly snow for the whole area. BTW its snowing pretty hard right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MM5 buries DC area thru 36: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like the 992mb contour on the UKMET matches the GFS, but the center of low pressure is well SW of the GFS at that time period. Side by side the UKMET 992mb contour is a little west but overall pressure pattern a little more elongated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM appears very nice. At least 20mm for NYC. NYC is on the border of 10-25mm on the 36 panel, and well within 10-25mm on the 48 panel. Looks like DC-BWI gets smoked? smoked is an understatement, unless it isn't frozen...But ya I roughly calculated about 20-24mm for NYC more south less north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z GEFS ensembles seem further NW with the precip than the Op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z GEFS ensembles seem further NW with the precip than the Op... Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Total GEFS precip. More precip and west than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just remember the MM5 is out of its range still and tends to be a progressive model. Anyone remember the days of weenies clinging to it at the last moment when we had storms that were progged too far NW by every other model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Total GEFS precip. More precip and west than the op. Oh beautiful, for spacious skies and endless waves of snow! The gefs must have some members that shift the ccb further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just remember the MM5 is out of its range still and tends to be a progressive model. Anyone remember the days of weenies clinging to it at the last moment when we had storms that were progged too far NW by every other model? Agreed. Looking at H5, not sure how it allows the SLP to scoot due east. We have 2 RAOB cycles to go and four full cycles to go on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WSW for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh beautiful, for spacious skies and endless waves of snow! The gefs must have some members that shift the ccb further west. Really just looks like a smoothed out version of the operation at 12z, filling in, straightening out the lines a bit. Looks like a more uniform presentation of the precip. field (as it should being an ensemble.) I see no serious overall jog west or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Issued by The National Weather Service New York City, NY 12 pm EST, Tue., Jan. 25, 2011 ... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS... NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA... LONG ISLAND... AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. * HAZARDS... HEAVY SNOW... WITH A PERIOD OF A RAIN AND SLEET MIX AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS... 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * WINDS... NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THEN TURNING NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS EAST. * TIMING... WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS... TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE... WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Still conservatite, and not wanting to nail down an exact forecast re: totall acumulation -Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WSW for NYC and LI. Officially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Officially? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Officially? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NOGAPS & GGEM a huge hit for entire NJ/NYC area....Deform band hits everyone. Good'ol Canadian comes to save the day. Nice to see a more expansive NW shield on the graphics, any graphics. IMO the RGEM is superior in the short range. And together with NAM, SREFs, GFS, I'm still nervous that this tucks ENE. Regardless, things look great for the metros! Although a bit of sleet still wouldn't surprise me. Instinct says a southern stream wave pulls further NW, at least initially. This should help parts of CPA especially. Thereafter, NEPA and ENY hang in the balance. Please Euro don't **** with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If the Euro sticks to its guns, and the ensembles support it, I would expect higher QPF totals to shift northwest in later model runs, especially identifying where the CCB banding really forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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