IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 While the American models have been all over the place with this event, the EC for the most part has been very consistent for the past several runs once it dismissed the idea of an apps runner. I'm putting most of my stock in the Euro until prooven wrong. Not sure if it was mentioned yet but some mets mentioned that the 6z NAM and GFS looked to be suffering from severe convective feedack issues. In any event, the GFS and NAM have given me everything from flooding rains to back breaking snow and everything in between. Now its almost looking like a non-event for me. This is not an IMBY post, just think that the NAM is too far east atm. As for the GGEM, how can you trust a model that up until yesterday showed a massive rain storm for everyone? Our best case scenario is that the low stays closed off in the MA like the 18z GFS had so that that deform band gets going 6 hrs sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 While the American models have been all over the place with this event, the EC for the most part has been very consistent for the past several runs once it dismissed the idea of an apps runner. I'm putting most of my stock in the Euro until prooven wrong. Not sure if it was mentioned yet but some mets mentioned that the 6z NAM and GFS looked to be suffering from severe convective feedack issues. In any event, the GFS and NAM have given me everything from flooding rains to back breaking snow and everything in between. Now its almost looking like a non-event for me. This is not an IMBY post, just think that the NAM is too far east atm. As for the GGEM, how can you trust a model that up until yesterday showed a massive rain storm for everyone? Our best case scenario is that the low stays closed off in the MA like the 18z GFS had so that that deform band gets going 6 hrs sooner. Not even sure why people follow anything but the EURO. The EURO had the Boxing Day Blizzard and the storm after that perfectly while other models were out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like the DC area will have the best deformation banding at this time, we could be the SNE of the boxing day blizzard. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 48 hour NAM accumulated snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like the DC area will have the best deformation banding at this time, we could be the SNE of the boxing day blizzard. We'll see. I hope for once it works out down there, I'm somewhat worried though that the deformation band could be late setting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM doesn't look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM doesn't look bad Looks like on the verge of 15mm. I think there could be 1mm either side of this panel. .60". My earlier estimates were poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs looks similiar threw 36hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hr 39 12z gfs....heavy snow for phl south...mod snow up to nyc hr 42 mod snow continues for phl-nyc dc-baltimore verbatiam is the winner on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yea...this is heavy snow dc are towards nyc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12Z UKMET nice hit for coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs is 4-8 for all of us on its snowfall maps off sv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 850mb low placement is classic for big deformation band snows in central Maryland. The 700mb RH field though is just beautiful for the area, especially central sections of coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's like the GFS skips over NYC with the heaviest stuff. Still a good run though. Solid warning event from DC-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i wouldnt worry about qpf printout, meaning...dont look and see "oh my gosh im only at .75 when 10miles SE its 1.0 qpf. if you look at 500, 700, and 850 charts, you will see where the heaviest axis of precip is on the cold side. at 700mb this is big where i highlighted in red. see post below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do any of the mets have a take on how well the GFS has been handeling this system thus far? The low takes almost an identical track as 18z yet its a bit less amplified and the deform band gets going just a tad too late to bury everyone like 18z did. I'm wondering if all that convection over the SE is taking its toll. Albeit it seems like the rest of the 12z guidance is latching on to this being more of a coastal threat atm. In any event, I'll take my 0.75" QPF with high ratios on the NW edge of the heavier precip. Not much more room for error though, and too think I'm currently on the SE edge of the watches? Is it just me or did the timing of the event really speed up as well? Looks like only about 6 hours of total precip away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 h3 and h5 looks great from 12-30 hours. But the trof is dampening and deamplifying thereafter. More significantly, the entire structure is moving progressively ENE, so even though the antecedent flow is out of the south, once the mid-level low hits to coast, it pulls the surface low ENE with it. Thus a pedestrian solution NW of NYC and a relatively short duration event elsewhere. This scenario is pretty good for PHL to NYC though, because the pinching mid-level low keeps it cold everywhere. A nice snow thump. But I hope the Euro idea is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 meanwhile we have moderate snow falling here on the north shore of LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 700mb at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 meanwhile we have moderate snow falling here on the north shore of LI... Wow, things have been constantly improving for us the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The UKMET is closer to the 0z Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GEFS have been so insistent this thing stays well offshore after departing the NC coast. The RGEM, SREFs, and NAM agree. Last night's UKMET and EURO were a bit SW with the surface track. Will be interesting if that difference continues today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Meanwhile the weekend clipper looking a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The UKMET is closer to the 0z Euro than the GFS. The next frame will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The UKMET is closer to the 0z Euro than the GFS. gfs qpf prinout is not indictive of whats going on with the upper levels. so yea, i think the ukie and euro have a better handle with regards to distribution of precip on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The next frame will tell the tale. Yep, does it bring the heavy stuff into the NYC area or slide it ENE off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The next frame will tell the tale. Closer to the coast but no QPF amounts at 42 hr on Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Closer to the coast but no QPF amounts at 42 hr on Plymouth. you'd have to think its a least a little wetter than the GFS for that frame...I guess we'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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