djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This looks better: http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_057s.gif compared to NAM yes its better... but QPF is lower for 9z run than past couple SREF runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 F%^&. 12z NAM map here, through hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 F%^&. 12z NAM map here, through hr48 That's a giant bustcast for me right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 F%^&. 12z NAM map here, through hr48 The NAM has done this before, i'd wait to see the rest of the suite come in before jumping any ledges but man if that verified, what a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW the NAM did this right before feb 5-6 last year. Had us in lan co getting like 1-3 at most...ended with 23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still have the recon plane to give it's details yet. I'd wait til then to make the final call to call it a bust or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This NAM should include that data if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Still have the recon plane to give it's details yet. I'd wait til then to make the final call to call it a bust or not I'm not sure they actually got ingested. The status message doesn't say anything about them. NOUS42 KWNO 251327 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1321Z TUE JAN 25 2011 12Z RAOB RECAP... MZL/76654 - 10159. ACM/78866 - 10142. NCC/78988 - 10142. T11/91413 - SHORT TO 471MB. EPZ/72364 - MISSING PART B RIW/72672 - NOT AVAILABLE CAR/72712 - NOT AVAILABLE ASY/70414 - 10158. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY WILL BE DECLARED LATER TODAY.. IN SUPPORT OF DHS REQUEST..STATE OF THE UNION..TO RUN FROM 17Z TODAY UNTIL 26/0500Z..TONIGHT. NCEP..NCF AND TOC(GATEWAY) WILL BE IN CWD MODE DURING THIS PERIOD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP I made a thread over the in the NYC/PHL forum to hopefully get the attention of one of the Mt Holly guys for confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW the NAM did this right before feb 5-6 last year. Had us in lan co getting like 1-3 at most...ended with 23". We got 13. I remember that. Onto the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's one hell of a gut shot right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm done if it verifies. That's really all I can say. If we get shafted I hope next week onward is 70 and sunny with some t-storms mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 i do gotta say the clown map is pretty hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hilarious if you are sadistic why did i even come on here this am!! i could have gone about my day in bliss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM = :lmao: Not about it possibly being way wrong, but about it being the perfect summary of this winter if it verifies. It's so sad it's almost funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm done if it verifies. That's really all I can say. If we get shafted I hope next week onward is 70 and sunny with some t-storms mixed in. I gotta agree. I know it's only January and that Feb-March are traditionally our snowiest months, but facts are facts. If you're getting burned 3, 4, 5 times in a row by the same type of ordeal -- then the only way in which that doesn't continue on is for the entire pattern to change and reset itself. It's almost as if we need a pattern-buster followed by a bit of a warm-up then a cool-down for anything to happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Deep breaths........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 first call for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first call for now looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first call for now I'll gladly take 1-2" at this point...something to freshen the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm done if it verifies. That's really all I can say. If we get shafted I hope next week onward is 70 and sunny with some t-storms mixed in. I gotta agree. I know it's only January and that Feb-March are traditionally our snowiest months, but facts are facts. If you're getting burned 3, 4, 5 times in a row by the same type of ordeal -- then the only way in which that doesn't continue on is for the entire pattern to change and reset itself. It's almost as if we need a pattern-buster followed by a bit of a warm-up then a cool-down for anything to happen this year. meh. Last year at this time, there were all sorts of breathless, pained missives about how up here in true geographic central PA was never going to see significant snow and we might as well just end winter. Mets would say hang in there, we aren't done, and replies were along the lines of youdontunderstandmylifeisruinedwedontgetsnowdontyoutellmetocalmdownIwillyellhereallIlikebesidespeopletellmetoshutupatworkaboutit. Oh, the pain! Then we got double normal in February. Which of course seemed to sort of anger a few people because after all, the most important thing is not getting a lot of snow but the complaining. And if this angers anyone, save it. You know I am right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 meh. Last year at this time, there were all sorts of breathless, pained missives about how up here in true geographic central PA was never going to see significant snow and we might as well just end winter. Mets would say hang in there, we aren't done, and replies were along the lines of youdontunderstandmylifeisruinedwedontgetsnowdontyoutellmetocalmdownIwillyellhereallIlikebesidespeopletellmetoshutupatworkaboutit. Oh, the pain! Then we got double normal in February. Which of course seemed to sort of anger a few people because after all, the most important thing is not getting a lot of snow but the complaining. And if this angers anyone, save it. You know I am right. this post just made my morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this post just made my morning People really just need to maybe get a warm glass of milk and a twinkie and chill for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 meh. Last year at this time, there were all sorts of breathless, pained missives about how up here in true geographic central PA was never going to see significant snow and we might as well just end winter. Mets would say hang in there, we aren't done, and replies were along the lines of youdontunderstandmylifeisruinedwedontgetsnowdontyoutellmetocalmdownIwillyellhereallIlikebesidespeopletellmetoshutupatworkaboutit. Oh, the pain! Then we got double normal in February. Which of course seemed to sort of anger a few people because after all, the most important thing is not getting a lot of snow but the complaining. And if this angers anyone, save it. You know I am right. I love me some JamieO truthiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 meh. Last year at this time, there were all sorts of breathless, pained missives about how up here in true geographic central PA was never going to see significant snow and we might as well just end winter. Mets would say hang in there, we aren't done, and replies were along the lines of youdontunderstandmylifeisruinedwedontgetsnowdontyoutellmetocalmdownIwillyellhereallIlikebesidespeopletellmetoshutupatworkaboutit. Oh, the pain! Then we got double normal in February. Which of course seemed to sort of anger a few people because after all, the most important thing is not getting a lot of snow but the complaining. And if this angers anyone, save it. You know I am right. You're absolutely right. I should've clarified I'm not that mad about being shafted by the NAM, I'm mad about wasting a lot of my time following the potential storm. Mad at myself, not the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 FWIW looks like DT's final call for here is very good extrapolating out...can only see southern portions right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is how i think.........Its not about the destination, its about the journey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You're absolutely right. I should've clarified I'm not that mad about being shafted by the NAM, I'm mad about wasting a lot of my time following the potential storm. Mad at myself, not the weather. Yeah.....we have all been there. This storm jerked us around - but of course it hasn't happened yet so maybe you guys cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You're absolutely right. I should've clarified I'm not that mad about being shafted by the NAM, I'm mad about wasting a lot of my time following the potential storm. Mad at myself, not the weather. Same here. Plus the fact that all we heard for four days was that this would be NE and C PA's storm....only for it to just hit NJ and NYC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Watch just went up for most of the Maryland Counties bordering SC PA. Just a matter of time now. For CTP, that probably means by tomorrow afternoon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah.....we have all been there. This storm jerked us around - but of course it hasn't happened yet so maybe you guys cash in. If you remember last week I said I wouldn't get excited for this storm until Monday or Tuesday. I just screwed up and got excited yesterday a little bit - should've waited since the storm has been pushed back a day or so! Here's to some better 12z models. And if we don't get snow, let's have a drinking party in Harrisburg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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