MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice to see the NAM's off the junk and showing something resembling the other models this eve. Still a bit southeast and weaker than the 12z suite generally, we'll see how rest of the 0z evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Guys we really don't want a westward trend. The 850 low is dangerously close to us right now, which means snow crystal growth would not be favorable for the type of dendrites that pile up really quickly. This run of the NAM is the best we can hope for, given the synoptic setup. The lack of a 50/50 low and strong (1030mb+) high worry me. Yeah but if you're in NEPA what else do you hope for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Guys we really don't want a westward trend. The 850 low is dangerously close to us right now, which means snow crystal growth would not be favorable for the type of dendrites that pile up really quickly. This run of the NAM is the best we can hope for, given the synoptic setup. The lack of a 50/50 low and strong (1030mb+) high worry me. Interesting stuff. So really the best we can basically hope for is third 2-4" type storm (given the NAMs evolution I mean)? I was really hoping someone in the region (aside from maybe the guys way down at the border) could pull a 6-8" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting stuff. So really the best we can basically hope for is third 2-4" type storm (given the NAMs evolution I mean)? I was really hoping someone in the region (aside from maybe the guys way down at the border) could pull a 6-8" out of this. I wouldn't go higher than 3-5" with this storm. For Harrisburg/York/Lancaster....something just doesn't sit right with me right now. I can see this turning into a mostly rain event while State College cashes in. I really do hope I eat my words and we get 8 - 12" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wouldn't go higher than 3-5" with this storm. For Harrisburg/York/Lancaster....something just doesn't sit right with me right now. I can see this turning into a mostly rain event while State College cashes in. I really do hope I eat my words and we get 8 - 12" out of this. You think this eventually screws PHL and parts of Jersey then? Just curious, not saying I disagree! (Though I hope to hell you're wrong! haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Last frame of the RGEM looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You think this eventually screws PHL and parts of Jersey then? Just curious, not saying I disagree! (Though I hope to hell you're wrong! haha) Yes, I'm thinking S NJ gets all rain and PHL is a slop mix, but mostly rain. I've been working on hw for grad school all day so I hope I'm just missing something here...old man winter make a fool outta me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yes, I'm thinking S NJ gets all rain and PHL is a slop mix, but mostly rain. I've been working on hw for grad school all day so I hope I'm just missing something here...old man winter make a fool outta me! What are you thinking for NEPA then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What are you thinking for NEPA then? May be the sweet spot. Take a look at the thicknesses on the RGEM. The 540 line (general idea where the cold/warm air boundary sets up) is north of even KAVP. I-78 south and east this is not your storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hour 30 on 0z GFS showing very few changes when compared to the 12z@42. Heights are now a little higher on EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is further east of 18z so far. 0z/30: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif 18z/36: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is further east of 18z so far. 0z/30: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_030l.gif 18z/36: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_036l.gif I will wait until 12z to totally move on, I think areas well east of 220 will see some snow, but its getting to be nothing to be now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is further east of 18z so far. 0z/30: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_030l.gif 18z/36: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_036l.gif It's better to compare the 0z to the 12z. The off-hour runs are weird sometimes. For that matter, so are the 0z and 12z sometimes! Carry on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's better to compare the 0z to the 12z. The off-hour runs are weird sometimes. For that matter, so are the 0z and 12z sometimes! Carry on..... It would still be further east for the same timeframe. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A bit SE. But, no biggie. GFS always does this. 12Z tomorrow we get plane recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the maps are up in phl and look solid still. ctp says it might snow now 00Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS PUSHED RELATIVELY HEAVY STORM TOTAL QPF OF 0.5-1.00 ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES...NEAR AND JUST SE OF A LINE FROM KTHV TO KMDT AND KMUI. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED STORM TRACK AND 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...MOST OR ALL OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THEREFORE...WILL BEEF UP POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE HWO - INDICATING THE INCREASING CHC FOR MODERATE TO HVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SE 1/3 TO OF THE CWA. ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KAOO...TO KUNV AND KIPT...STORM TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. MID SHIFT OR DAY SHIFT MAY DECIDE TO POST WATCHES FOR THE SE ZONES BASED ON THE FULL SUITE OF U.S./EURO 00Z MODEL RUNS AND 03Z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll take my Rgem, nam mix please. Onto the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS is almost no different than 12z. Tomorrow morning will be interesting with our American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS is almost no different than 12z. Tomorrow morning will be interesting with our American models. Why is that? Because of the recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why is that? Because of the recon data? Yup. And we're inside 48 hours....so they better be uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yup. And we're inside 48 hours....so they better be uniform. And then you woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Nogaps say yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Nogaps say yup. no image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS still could be a good 50-75 miles too far east. That's at least what SnowGoose said. The GFS is probably too far east as its been all year, not by much by probably 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 snowgoose vs eskimo joe. battle royale!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no image... https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=ngp_namer&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good Luck MDT Lancaster and York guys...Im giving up on this one..hope you guys make out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 https://www.fnmoc.na..._namer&set=Core How about you get that SSL taken care of? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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