brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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the pattern on the GFS is actually pretty great: potent +PNA, deep S/W diving into the OH Valley, 50/50 ULL, and a west-based -NAO the big caveat is that it's early, so 1) longer wavelengths, so it can't wrap up as easily, and 2) it's fighting climo
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GFS has been steadily trending towards something there. very thread-the-needle, but worth an eye
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didn't you get a 30" JP in Jan 2022
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highly doubt. there will be spells, though. same as when we get temporary spells of 7 and 8 in a Nina. happened in Jan 2022 when we got that blizzard at the end of the month
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the MJO is going around the horn. it'll take until mid-month to get back into 7-8-1, but all ENS and the CFS get it there. should open up a more favorable period around the third or fourth week of the month as many have been saying. this is likely a small detour... I don't see a reason why forcing would remain in that area, as ENSO becomes more of a factor and promotes subsidence over the MC SPV weakening also does warm us up here, too
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the issue that we're still seeing is that people see a very strong event that's based in the EP (which is true) and that's where it begins and ends. the majority of the strong/super years also did not feature blocking. this one can certainly finish with a -NAO, which puts it in great company
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that Scandi ridging on the GEFS is nice, could be a precursor to a -NAO event especially given SPV weakening. the EPS is similar in that regard
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with this being said, I agree with you in that it's going to get warm for a week to 10 days mid-month. then we should see a shift in the pattern Christmas week
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the VP plots show the same thing. the MJO moves into 7/8 by mid-month on all major ensembles. it's in the warm phases for a week maybe? it's not like it's sitting there for a month, the wave is propagating east
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there is zero evidence that the MJO will sit in unfavorable phases for more than a few days to a week. this is a quick moving wave that will warm us up from Dec 10-20, most likely
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there is no reason to believe that the MJO passing through the MC is anything but temporary... all models have the MJO progressing into more favorable phases by mid-month. the SPV is also likely going to be very weak compared to climatology, which will bolster the case for -NAO periods late in the winter given that we're already seeing blocking
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a crappy Pacific is typical in Nino Decembers. the one difference with this one compared to previous strong/super Ninos is the persistent -NAO blocking showing up. this is usually not a feature of events this strong and may signal increased blocking later this winter
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honestly, just seeing the strong -NAO/-AO this early really bodes well for the rest of winter. it's a pretty strong departure from previous strong/super Ninos. AK is similar, but the polar domain is not. given that the -AO/-NAO is going to be a big factor, it'll set us up if we do pull off a -NAO Dec
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if we had the Dec 4-6 pattern in Feb it would be so much more favorable with more cold air and shorter wavelengths. it's too early to rely on a lack of Arctic air
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persistence forecasting will fail you when you need it to be right the most. that's the issue with it
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as others have said, I don't think there's been a single person that's called for a cold December. in fact, many have called for a very warm month, including myself. it's just that the -NAO and weak SPV correlate to more blocking later in the winter
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also talk about sanctimonious, holy shit. if you don't value the inputs in here, why post here? to just grace us with your galaxy brain? do you think us mere mortals could possibly understand your superior forecasting methods?
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LOL are you serious? do you know what the MJO is?
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if that ridge can find a way to poke into AK it really changes things up. allows colder air to sink into the trough
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favorable trend in the PNA over the last cycle or so
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i would like to see the backside vort dig more. i think it’s probably still too early given the lack of fresh polar air a month later and we would be talking
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this is very close. nice 50/50 in place too
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would be nice if there was enough wave spacing for the backside wave to amplify
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it's too early for anything but an ideal pattern. hell, it doesn't even snow up here in coastal NJ until the 15th or so, let alone near you guys. the last couple weeks is a different story, but we have no idea how those weeks are going to shake out
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this explanation makes sense, as the strong IOD leading to forcing in P3 is a typical strong Nino response. it's not Nina forcing
