NorthArlington101
-
Posts
10,979 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NorthArlington101
-
if it's gonna do this stuff in the short/mid-range, I wonder why I'd look at it over the EURO. I know it earned some respect locally with how it sniffed out Jan 2022, but beyond that I don't think it's been any better. It's ens are still seemingly heavily prone to overestimating precip/snow.
-
GFS has been terrible with this one.
-
I guess I wouldn’t bet my life this wouldn’t happen, but it’s concerning how bad the gfs is 4 days out.
-
Best spot for snow vacation home within 4 hours of NOVA
NorthArlington101 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’ve been weighing doing this for years and think Canaan and Deep Creek are probably the best two spots. You could probably find some secluded mountain cabin in West Virginia if you want to really rough it, but I kinda like knowing a plow is coming. I keep glancing at real estate out in those parts. Maybe one day I’ll pull the trigger and we can have an AmWx snow retreat. -
GEFS looks slightly improved for the 2nd and 4th, FWIW. Not worth getting excited about but should reassure folks neither threat is “dead.” Also has that same window of opportunity on the 7th/8th. Would be really funny if we did all this handwringing and somehow went on a heater.
-
I bet someone here knows more than me, but that’s my understanding. It’s trained off historical weather data and tries to use that to predict the weather going forward. Conceptually that seems like a great application of that kind of learning to me.
-
Butterfly effect ends up with a substantial winter storm for GA (by their standards) up into the Carolinas for the 3-4th. Wacky run
-
For sure - should’ve clarified it’s really a big deal for the few folks out in far W MD and some of our WV folks. Rather dramatic run-to-run shift.
-
18z GFS had a pretty different look for Friday and looks to be doing something different for the 2nd too. Chaotic stuff.
-
EPS looks solid enough for 12 days out re: the Jan. 8 shot.
-
12z EURO says seasonably cold and dry on Jan. 2 - what storm?
-
partially? I've been looking to see if you can run Google's GraphCast model with snow accums but I can't find it. Have found a site that shows rough MSLP + precip
-
weekend rule ✅ looks decently cold ✅ storm starts off looking sort of suppressed ✅ we're ticking off the boxes. This is it
-
GEFS is cooking up something in the Jan. 6 timeframe. That's the one I'm after. If that one isn't at least interesting to track... it'll be sad.
-
At least the SPIRE gets it done on Jan. 2.
-
Happy Boxing Day 2010 anniversary!
-
flee to the hills!
-
Well, at least the entire MA/NE is above freezing. We can all suffer together [emoji51] Dynamic cooling bombs or bust. Otherwise head to the mountains.
-
Should’ve sent the PAWS version instead
-
-
TWC must get the the 12z GFS early
-
I may be misremembering but 28th was a long shot chance as the pattern was changing. Real first window was always the 4th/6th, which is too far away to know anything. If we make it to mid-January with nothing but hopes for winter to be saved in February… that’s a disaster.
-
GFS says take to the WV mountains this week if you can’t wait another few weeks for snow.
-
Yeah it’s not even really close. I get annoyed when it’s 33 and not snowing… when it’s 50 I can get over it.
-
Aren’t we smart enough not to engage folks looking for attention in the LR thread?
