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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. Yeah it's good. Significantly thumpy-er... general 5-6" OTG before 7am is what we need. Snows after that too if you buy it.
  2. 4" of snow and sleet is still probably a good bar... I mean the 12k gets you 4" of sleet alone.
  3. Partially to preserve my own sanity and grind expectations low, but yeah, kinda because of the NAM. Also matches the EURO as far as snow goes, really, perhaps a tad more conservative. I guess the sleet would probably make my map wrong but I'll never really count that as snow even if you are supposed to
  4. Last negative nancy post then I'll try and dial it in - we keep pushing this storm back. It was a Friday night storm at one point! Now we're not really getting going til after midnight, and even then we don't seem to get rates til maybe 4am. Really, really, annoying.
  5. I'd probably add 1" to this and call it my forecast map atp for the most part. Ignoring far western zones and mountains.
  6. FV3 is sexy and I can tell it's at least trying to filter out pure freezing rain. Dunno how it treats sleet. I'll pretend this was the NAM.
  7. Clearly the NWS wouldn't but I'm still happy to be concerned about it. Hate the NAM but when it stubbornly puts out a red flag we should usually pay attention.
  8. Nobody also tops 10:1 rates of .5"/hr on the 3k. It's not really a thump.
  9. I mean here is why I'm not happy regardless of whatever anyone says. Seeing the cushion to the SE of DC erode. We've still got like a day for this to fully evaporate. Doesn't work for me
  10. I guess but if it's gonna race the sleet line up faster it comes out in the wash
  11. 3k doesn't really look better to me. We hope and pray it's wrong. Starting down the barrel of less than warning criteria snow DC-south at this point.
  12. Yeah, this 12k run isn't really any better. Prefer to see what the 3k has to say but this was the range yesterday I said I'd start to care about it. Really hoping it's wrong.
  13. I'm honestly not that impressed - looks like .17" of precip for DCA from 42-45? We need more
  14. It is interesting that the HRRR models 850 as the more aggressive warm nose. Guess that would be worse for FRZA because there is less time for it to refreeze? Probably also not worth overanalyzing.
  15. Believe this does include sleet, based on previous discussions in here.
  16. Feel like it’s EURO without the ability to discern sleet/snow/FRZA
  17. Fair - WxBell 10:1 maps have about half of that so I guess it likes the ratios, which isn’t crazy. Probably over analyzing the FV3 at this point. I’ll say you win
  18. I may have blinked and missed things today but I thought we were supposed to wake up to more than 2” at 6am. I’m willing to cave to being wrong, though. Guess every flake sticks even if it’s not heavy from midnight-6.
  19. It would probably be fine but it barely starts in DC until like 6am. Storm is gonna start Monday at this rate. This was supposed to start tomorrow night at one point!
  20. Unfortunately the ens seemingly can’t factor sleet/snow. Still a lot of total wintry precip
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