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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    AIFS much better. Where is @stormtracker to unpanic?
  2. NorthArlington101
    Might be overdoing the praise for the AIFS in some cases but its pretty darn compelling, imo. At least equal to the EURO in terms of midrange synoptics.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Not lurking in ya'lls space to troll, but the SREFs are terrible. What's remarkable about it is that it used to be considered a usable tool. Only look for entertainment. Some members have it dumping snow in D.C.. Barring the coup of the century, it's a toss.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Imagine if the 12z HRRR did what it just did to Raleigh/VA beach to DC/Baltimore. Now that’s worth a crashout.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Only able to see precip total maps, but the non-AI euro has a northern band and a southern band kind of situation for Wednesday. Good chunk of Maryland squeaks out 1” or so - rest is too south for most of us.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Juiced up a little bit, yeah. Still fairly fringed. Belongs in the other thread really but AIFS ticked better for our southern folks for Saturday. Somewhat decent tick given its usual stubbornness in the last few hours. Might mean an extra inch for someone. But if you buy it verbatim really only a super cool storm for eastern NC/barrier islands at this point.
  7. NorthArlington101
    AIFS says no - south. Might join @stormtracker and say goodnight on this one soon!
  8. NorthArlington101
    Hope it pans out! Florida flurries are cool, at least south of the Panhandle. Panhandle gets as much snow as we do these days.
  9. NorthArlington101
    I guess I'm just not willing to sweat this one yet. Trends aren't awesome. Long as it doesn't turn into an OBX bomb like the GFS I won't lose much sleep. Hearing some chatter from Tomer + others for mid-Atlantic threat mid-month. Probably on the one day it would be horrifically inconvenient for me and my folks. Think we'll have something else to track even if this window totally evaporates in the next 2 days.
  10. NorthArlington101
    The storm did intensity over OBX and now I’m raising my pitchforks with you. Like another 6-10” there on Kuchera. Apologies But also it’s the GFS. I’m finally gonna learn the lesson to ignore it. Ignorance is bliss
  11. NorthArlington101
    Then it’s rain? I guess WxBell panels are still loading but this doesn’t seem worth the consternation
  12. NorthArlington101
    I assumed you meant south like North Carolina, not Central VA. If we want to treat the GFS like a normal model, this run is okay with me. In the game
  13. NorthArlington101
  14. NorthArlington101
    I was looking at the models this morning and feeling bad for our North Carolina/SE VA weenies but they mostly seem to be feeling okay? I took a very quick glance at the AIFS & its ens and thought the world would've exploded.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I meant what I said earlier that echos what @Heisy said. We’d all probably have better forecasts and expectations only looking at the AIFS until Day 3 or so when you start adding short range models for precip/temps. But that’s no fun. I love living and dying by each model run
  16. NorthArlington101
    What if I told you the ICON was?
  17. NorthArlington101
    AIFS is on board. And I mean most things show it. But yeah, broke the don’t look at the GFS vow after about 3 hours. Oops
  18. NorthArlington101
  19. NorthArlington101
    Sketchy surface temps. But that’s our normal.
  20. NorthArlington101
    The surgery provided a convenient excuse
  21. NorthArlington101
    You could make a compelling case today that the only guidance worth looking at until the short range for Ptype is the AIFS and you’d probably be right. This hobby is a lot less fun that way but it’s perhaps the way we are rolling.
  22. NorthArlington101
    UVA didn't mess around with their removal when I was a student there. Pretty darn good... only day I had trouble was during COVID trying to get to grounds during an ice storm. That was a little stupid.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Unfortunate coincidence. Could've been partying in an absurd mansion in Aspen. But I don't like traveling during the winter in case it snows here, so all good anyway. Not upset at all
  24. NorthArlington101
    Ah, a more classic fall line storm. Would hurt to risk raining in D.C. the second precip moves into the area again, but it's refreshing to see something "normal"
  25. NorthArlington101
    Me too! Especially because I won’t be able to walk in the snow after the leg lengthening surgery
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