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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Peep the digital snow thread post for what the GFS had 9 days ago for this storm. GFS is excellent in this range /s (but what if I’m not joking)
  2. NorthArlington101
    Pretty close. I can only get 24hrs we have to subtract from the previous storm. Add like 4” to that idk
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    I meant to say RUN it back. Let’s do it
  6. NorthArlington101
    It’s been an exhausting few weeks. Let’s roll it back.
  7. NorthArlington101
    LWX practically states this in their disco but assuming that their better access to internal snow model ratios is part of the reason they are perhaps more aggressive than some of us think they should be? Fairly “simple” boom scenario compared to 10:1 maps of initially really strong ratios, heavy WAA precip, and a slightly too aggressive warm nose? Realize that’s all a lot to ask for
  8. NorthArlington101
  9. NorthArlington101
    Was gonna say you could argue a sliiiightly faster flip. But all in all you have to call it a hold.
  10. NorthArlington101
    We’re not gonna have any problems with this GFS run
  11. NorthArlington101
    It’s a hair wetter by hr40. Could also just be faster. Both ok with me
  12. NorthArlington101
    Not gonna lie you are younger than I assumed you were
  13. NorthArlington101
    This might just be vibes but in my head I could make a compelling case the GEM suite has been the most consistent the last 48 hours. I feel like it shot things way north first but still always have DC-north a compelling 6-10” floor. Idk what 500mb looks like
  14. NorthArlington101
    Would obviously take it as it lies (feel like I've said that a lot today) but a tick north on the ICON, too. Wrong direction.
  15. NorthArlington101
    This is kinda noise level to me but might be IMBY bias - re: your post below, fair enough.
  16. NorthArlington101
    It's better than the NAM? At this point I lock this in 100% with no thought if you mean the mostly FRZA as opposed to sleet though, I agree
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    I'm not yet okay
  19. NorthArlington101
    better snow to the south of us but didn't save it from a mediocre outcome. Only using Kuchera given the chatter about better than 10:1
  20. NorthArlington101
    Still just can't get over .5"/hr 10:1 on the 3k... and D.C. still flips around 9am. With all other guidance saying otherwise I really want to toss. Just can't shake the fact that it's not quite on board yet. What @MillvilleWx said is encouraging, at least.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Could be WxBell just being funky, but it tries to accumulate some snow after the flip to sleet while also accumulating sleet on the separate sleet panels. True wintry mix? Can it try and split 50/50 what falls? No idea.
  22. NorthArlington101
    DC looks to flip after 11am. Currently on the pre-flip-to-sleep-rippage panel.
  23. NorthArlington101
    EURO Control on the weeklies hits us hard twice over the next 2 weeks... not including Sunday.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Ens all have a little something... would say GEPS > AIFS Ens > GEFS > EPS in terms of most-to-least interesting.
  25. NorthArlington101
    When I first wake up and am in the interlude between sleep and getting up I often hallucinate realistic enough 6z runs and forum messages reacting to them. I've got a real effin problem
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