NorthArlington101

pretty interesting AIFS ens for Sunday-Monday imo. Way more interested than it ever was for Thursday. GEPS really liked it too

Folks can PM me if they really wanna know the server name and find it themselves - it’s a Discord server and the screenshot was shared by folks I don’t think are messing with me. Discord is much weenier than here imo so I’m surprised that’s where he’d opt to pop in but I believe he diversified into that space when Twitter flipped to X.

HM is honking late Jan / early Feb for the best chance as a KU since 2022. He's been quiet lately but has come back from the dead (seemingly) on one of his channels.

Ignoring the snow means for a moment and only looking at precip it's pretty clear we've got two shots for some limited moisture in the next seven days and then a "wet" period. Hard to say too much more.

It's solid but not nearly as spectacular. Still like seeing it out there.

A more optimistic takeaway would be a lot of opportunities from the medium range to the extended. 24th/26th/28th all close and still room for the 18th/19th.

I fully respect the synoptics and realize that they drive the surface, but IMO one of the big flags for this upcoming "fail" was the lack of snow on the ens means. Could be a blind squirrel finding a nut but even as we saw positive h5 shifts they stayed stubbornly uninterested. AIs never liked it either. Seeing the AI guidance and the snow means responding to this period adds to my interest.

All it took was the thread to be unpinned...

I'm a huge believer in Jan 23-Jan 28. Legit cold, OPs throwing out consistent hits (some historic) in the long range, great snow/precip means, etc. Don't see what isn't to like.

Time for a thread. Idk who wants to own this stinker, but it must be done. We’ve got other things to post here

This guy is smart. Good thing he’s all in on Jan 23-25.

I responded more aggressively than I wanted to but I think if you split the discussion into “pros” and “average joes” the discussion for the average joes will inevitably dry up. It doesn’t offer folks a chance to learn and improve. The mods would have to somehow decide how the “trusted non-Mets” can be verified. I don’t think it would work out and would be disappointed if it was implemented. Think giving folks flairs for being a meteorologist accomplishes what we need as far as filtering to our best and brightest.

It’s a horrible idea, honestly, and no shade to you or whoever suggests it when it always comes up. This is a community to talk about the weather - hobbyists, meteorologists, weenies, everyone in between. If you don’t want to see someone’s opinions mute them, but we start deciding who is worthy of posting and splintering threads off… nobody will be happy.

I’m all in on Jan 23-25. But until then, it’s no bueno. Gonna see if it’s worth a drive to WV this weekend and catch some extra sleep this week.

Out to 105 it looks like “what storm”

PM me - plausibly interested for sure, especially with some notice. Happy to meet up beforehand sometime to confirm we all like each other too.

GEFS snow mean for Boston is like 6”. Starting to look a pretty classic Miller B sorta screwjob. 1-2” around here which isn’t awful though

I’ve moved onto Jan 24 - just one more punt. This was always the real window

We’re pretty capped on this storm IMO to someone maaybeee getting to 8” if the ULL pass is ideal. There are probably things that can be done to try and better lockdown an area-wide 2-4”, but I’m not sure we can improve much on the 12z offerings from the GFS/Euro

Was only snowing for maybe 20s as this formed overhead. Little too late. Pretty, though. https://ibb.co/Q3ywXwyn

Snowing in DC!

Also did not know you went to UVA. Lived in the upper JPA zone my whole time after first year. Quite a bit cheaper

Close as we’re gonna get to an area wide good outcome with this. And I’m not just saying that because I’m in the jackpot. Looks like the 6z EURO, reasonable outcome.

I feel like we’ve learned a fair bit about the character of this threat last night. GFS and EURO outcomes at 6z really aren’t that far apart, even in terms of distance. Storm has maybe a 6-8” max for those perfectly in its crosshairs but otherwise it’s gonna be pretty standard despite the awesome h5 look. We’re praying for the deform to cash in and missing all of the WAA. Tricky.

More realistic - EPS mean is better tonight. Goodnight!