NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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Don't even know what you are supposed to do with this given no guidance really shows that outcome and all the experts at NWS/WPC/anyone everywhere seem to think the entire eastern seaboard is gonna get impacted. Guess we hope he's off his game.
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The 540 line isn't gospel. There is a site for the AIFS that does p-type that I should've bookmarked, but it keeps us snow as that site views it verbatim. If I can find it again I'll mark it.
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I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship
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That's pretty much it
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Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday
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They take their sweet time. You'll see them about 5s after I do. WxBell still at 68
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Total precip
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Can tell you we are getting smacked at 99 but I’ll let you have it
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AIFS is steady as she goes. Slight hair north
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Mean got diluted between some suppressed members somehow getting added back into the mix and the continued amped camp. As it shows we still end up in the middle but a little less inspiring.
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It runs delayed, but it was all snow for DC-north yesterday. Sleet creeping nearby
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I could come around to 6" of sleet if I had to in a true "worst case scenario" that hasn't even been modeled yet. Would be annoying to get baited by a MECS and shift into that, but 6" of sleet would be a BECS in its own way.
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The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+
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foot of snow 10:1 in DC?
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Looks like a pretty solid thump before sleet/dryslot... can start mentally trying to get comfortable with that as a "worst" case outcome.
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Duration really increased. All that missing QPF is on the backside
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Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell
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what kind of work do we do, lol
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Sleet line a hair north, but you'd like to just call it a wobble. Still a money panel
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Right, it's an IMBY sport. So you know exactly why some people would be less happy than the trend from last night - that's the only point I'm poorly trying to make! Hope you get crushed (and me too, ofc)
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Comparison is the thief of joy and in a vacuum we'd all be happy with the (current) modeled outcomes, but surprised you can't appreciate why someone in SoMD wouldn't be as happy as you might be right now. I think we'll all be fine but some folks are more on the edge here for totally understandable reasons.
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I think there is almost no question we at least get a 5-10" thump. The question of the day, which is hopefully resolved by the end of the day so we can set expectations, is whether those of us in the typically sleet-vulnerable areas need to be bracing for snow or sleet after that flip. Didn't look like an issue yesterday so I think folks are appropriately riled up.
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One thing worth noting on the NAM, perhaps, is that it seems very skeptical of freezing rain as the dominant non-snow Ptype. Lot of sleet, even way down south.
