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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. Don't even know what you are supposed to do with this given no guidance really shows that outcome and all the experts at NWS/WPC/anyone everywhere seem to think the entire eastern seaboard is gonna get impacted. Guess we hope he's off his game.
  2. The 540 line isn't gospel. There is a site for the AIFS that does p-type that I should've bookmarked, but it keeps us snow as that site views it verbatim. If I can find it again I'll mark it.
  3. I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship
  4. Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday
  5. They take their sweet time. You'll see them about 5s after I do. WxBell still at 68
  6. Can tell you we are getting smacked at 99 but I’ll let you have it
  7. AIFS is steady as she goes. Slight hair north
  8. Mean got diluted between some suppressed members somehow getting added back into the mix and the continued amped camp. As it shows we still end up in the middle but a little less inspiring.
  9. It runs delayed, but it was all snow for DC-north yesterday. Sleet creeping nearby
  10. I could come around to 6" of sleet if I had to in a true "worst case scenario" that hasn't even been modeled yet. Would be annoying to get baited by a MECS and shift into that, but 6" of sleet would be a BECS in its own way.
  11. The CMC is not a disaster... we don't like the trend but you'd think it just gave us 0" and not a forum-wide 8-12"+
  12. Looks like a pretty solid thump before sleet/dryslot... can start mentally trying to get comfortable with that as a "worst" case outcome.
  13. Duration really increased. All that missing QPF is on the backside
  14. Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell
  15. what kind of work do we do, lol
  16. Sleet line a hair north, but you'd like to just call it a wobble. Still a money panel
  17. Right, it's an IMBY sport. So you know exactly why some people would be less happy than the trend from last night - that's the only point I'm poorly trying to make! Hope you get crushed (and me too, ofc)
  18. Comparison is the thief of joy and in a vacuum we'd all be happy with the (current) modeled outcomes, but surprised you can't appreciate why someone in SoMD wouldn't be as happy as you might be right now. I think we'll all be fine but some folks are more on the edge here for totally understandable reasons.
  19. I think there is almost no question we at least get a 5-10" thump. The question of the day, which is hopefully resolved by the end of the day so we can set expectations, is whether those of us in the typically sleet-vulnerable areas need to be bracing for snow or sleet after that flip. Didn't look like an issue yesterday so I think folks are appropriately riled up.
  20. One thing worth noting on the NAM, perhaps, is that it seems very skeptical of freezing rain as the dominant non-snow Ptype. Lot of sleet, even way down south.
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