NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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Looks like the 6z EURO. I’m back in… for 2 hours. -
My AI sensors are tingling
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I work with a lot of Richmond folks and whenever they know I like snow or weather they ask about DT.
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I don't think you've ever offered a functional alternative. I always appreciate your comments with barometer obs and your personal modeling based on those outcomes but the hit rate seems no better. If you really feel this way I'd love you to offer a clear forecast 7/5/3/1 day out from each event and we can keep score against the AIFS or whatever is performing best
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Favorite Atmospheric/Sky Phenomenon
NorthArlington101 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Really tough to beat the total solar eclipse. Enough to make a grown man cry! Besides that... I mean a truly vivid rainbow is honestly cooler than an aurora. Or just a pitch perfect (for DC area) cumulonimbus cloud is really sweet. -
Tough to bet against a locked in AIFS. Oh well. We'll try again next winter.
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Any company that invents carbon recapture will be a full port of my portfolio! Til then…
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18z Euro looks like a nice rainstorm. I’ll give it another day
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Yeah, AIFS even more suppressed. Hard to bet against it locked in, but we’ll see
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HECS, MECS, whatever. 13" on my dome is high impact to me
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Probably not fair to compare the CMC Ens to the Para CMC since they are running different systems - but not really, lol. Para CMC and the current CMC are close-ish to each other, though. Reform the low off the Carolina coast vs. over our heads/NJ
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PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS
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re: the above - pretty boom or bust
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Pretty much zippo But when you jump to 75% it gets impressive fast - probably only need a 60th percentile storm to be okay?
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Promise you the decision was made with more data than you have!
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You have to view these only in the sense of mean total QPF that is borderline wintry, but…
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EPS 00z
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AIFS ens are close…
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CMC Para 10:1 (paste bomb so Kuchera hates it)
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I think it might at least start as snow but the WxBell temp maps aren’t out all the way Edit: sooo close at 850 and 925. Probably rain for most but n md
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To be so cold for weeks and then end winter on a perfect track rainstorm would be pretty funny
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If that thread is gonna stay they could at least crosspost the discussion. I’ve already explained that I don’t get it but it’s whatever
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Surface temps are yucky for pretty much everyone but in theory it’s probably a quick paste bomb for most everyone* with the timing before it flips to rain. *I-81 wins
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Normal CMC kinda looks like that at 12z. I-81 storm.
