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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    meh too slow - no map before hr96 is real!!
  2. NorthArlington101
    Looks like my job got stolen. I'll let @SnowenOutThere post the final totals at hr96. It did cut back a bit near Richmond/SE Virginia, so it's hopefully the start toward a compromise-ish solution? But technically it's better than 12z, so I guess the camps widened in some respects.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Gonna give ya'll the pretty maps then go meet @nw baltimore wx and @nj2va at a happy hour... still not too late to join us at Succotash in 20m!
  4. NorthArlington101
    Correct
  5. NorthArlington101
    sleet line doesn't really move from here the rest of the run
  6. NorthArlington101
    DC flips by 78 but we'd still be happy. 8" non-Kuchera.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Precip looks to end up delayed not denied - wetter at 72
  8. NorthArlington101
    Looks a bit slower toggling back and forth on WxBell. But like an hour or two. If you think it's drier you are probably also right
  9. NorthArlington101
    Glad to know I can still detect a robot
  10. NorthArlington101
    I think this hobby suffers from the same issues that plague the world -- too much information, a rush to be first, a drive toward saying polarizing things to get attention. I can't come up with a solution to any of these problems other then some slight unplugging. I'm not sure there was a way to have watched this storm and not feel at least a little rugpulled/frustrated, though. Sometimes that just happens.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Getting dangerously close to banter so mods move if you want but I'm pretty sure that was an instance of confluence weakening. Snowstorm wasn't really supposed to make it as far as it did (i.e., to Cville, Fredericksburg) a day or two before it happened. Folks probably wanted it to weaken more then it did but it weakened.
  12. NorthArlington101
    I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy.
  13. NorthArlington101
    The RRFS & the 3k map the 700mb level (seemingly our warm level) cold out similarly and it's deeper/more impressive than the 12k. I'm willing to toss the 12k flipping us quite so fast on those merits. Really need the typical gametime WAA-juicy trend to start hitting some of these higher end forecast numbers, though. Still like 5" as a floor, I hope.
  14. NorthArlington101
    LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see
  15. NorthArlington101
    Wiki article says Falls Church got 13". I totally believe you though... classic DCA crummy elevation screw job.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Not to trigger @mattie g but I know our climo. Gonna hedge the snow a little low. We'll sleet earlier than we want.
  17. NorthArlington101
    I think we'd all sign on the dotted line for this right now? 100%ish chance at WSW snow and then whatever else happens happens?
  18. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing.
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    I guess... plenty of time to juice it back up a bit and it typically happens in these kind of setups. I'm just happy to not be worrying about surface temps.
  21. NorthArlington101
    I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.
  22. NorthArlington101
    I agree - was hoping that would lead to a downstream outcome more like the GFS. I believe some of the nerds I listened to saw some positives at h5 in the Euro, but it ended up being drier and flipping us at essentially the same time. So kinda meh overall. Gonna be on repeat all the next 2 days mostly to convince myself but I think I'm fine with 5" then sleet storm.
  23. NorthArlington101
    It does but I'm deferential to the NAMs not being totally wrong and feel like this should be more sleet. We'll see
  24. NorthArlington101
  25. NorthArlington101
    Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run
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