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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing.
  2. NorthArlington101
  3. NorthArlington101
    I guess... plenty of time to juice it back up a bit and it typically happens in these kind of setups. I'm just happy to not be worrying about surface temps.
  4. NorthArlington101
    I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I agree - was hoping that would lead to a downstream outcome more like the GFS. I believe some of the nerds I listened to saw some positives at h5 in the Euro, but it ended up being drier and flipping us at essentially the same time. So kinda meh overall. Gonna be on repeat all the next 2 days mostly to convince myself but I think I'm fine with 5" then sleet storm.
  6. NorthArlington101
    It does but I'm deferential to the NAMs not being totally wrong and feel like this should be more sleet. We'll see
  7. NorthArlington101
  8. NorthArlington101
    Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run
  9. NorthArlington101
    EURO def south with the initial WAA pus, at least
  10. NorthArlington101
    5”+ inches of snow with the thump then we sleet. That’s where we’re rolling. Better than rain
  11. NorthArlington101
    CMC is game. Looking pretty real.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Sporadically on his remaining channels. I'm not actually in any of them - just get them shared through the grapevine and try to pass them along here. Was honking late Jan - early Feb as his favorite period since Jan 2022.
  13. NorthArlington101
    This is the HM storm...
  14. NorthArlington101
    I don't have Kuchera maps but widespread 10-15" - dc sorta gets holed somehow but it's fine.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Flips the sleet lever a little earlier anyway. Still should be a fine run.
  16. NorthArlington101
  17. NorthArlington101
    At minimum all of this is snow on the GFS AI: Most of us lose 700mb by a hair between 72-78... where totals jump to this. Lot of sleet after.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Warmest surface temps I can find. No matter what Ptype, this is gonna be pretty sick at least. Really hard to do this around here.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Correct:
  20. NorthArlington101
  21. NorthArlington101
    GFS is a 1’+ for everyone, and I pretty much mea everyone. Hope it’s doing okay thermal wise. Nice to see the hires FV3 also chilly.
  22. NorthArlington101
    The period HM was honking wasn't the storm this weekend really... it was next week and the first week or so of February. Food for thought.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Warm layers can 100% race north quickly, though I'm still not gonna worry about NAM ptype until tomorrow at 06z at earliest
  24. NorthArlington101
    From my 4 years in Cville... it can hang on a bit more with the CAD. Honestly, I think you'll do fairly similar to a lot of NOVA on this storm, though that take might age badly. Don't think you really sleet that much more, think you turn to sleet sooner but also start a bit sooner. Really significant FRZA seems increasingly unlikely to me. Feel like it's snow -> sleet for most of us.
  25. NorthArlington101
    One day you have to go outside of work hours! I think we've had this convo before, but I live fairly close to Other Half in Ivy City. Come to Succotash today too Not as beer-adventurous as Other Half, but it'll be fun.
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