NorthArlington101

not sure anyone ever posted a GFS map without Saturday's "event"?

Pretty familiar to where we were for Tuesday’s storm - gives me fairly good confidence it’ll snow somewhere in this area.

Swear something is broken with the CMC Kuchera - 10:1 for a slightly better picture

Get rocked pretty good at 180 at least

Shitty maps show it bringing something up the coast but can’t tell if it’s anything super exciting

My biggest takeaway from this GFS run was we should consider a thread for Saturday if the EURO shows anything.

Not gonna work this run, sliding offshore

Very light snow moving in at hr153 (4am Wed)

I’m eyeing it but don’t know enough about what I’m looking for honestly - this kind of system has too many pieces for me. I like the look on radar slightly better at least lol through 144. But I make literally zero promises

I wanted to be impressed this year - which is kind of my opinion on AI in general lol. It’s consistency is admirable, but think a run of remarkable consistency in the AIFS means the same thing as a consistent run in any model… take it seriously then.

Seasonal (or a couple year…) pattern. @Bob Chill’s train tracks. DC is forced to get 6-8” on the bubble while SE MD folks get rich.

I’ll take that and call it a week

Are we rich already? This is alright?

Looks kinda like this 18z GFS. Not amazing, but would roll with it if we gotta

yeah, if it happens that's not nothing. modest consolation prize?

GEFS has a respectable mean. Like 66% of this falls within 24 hours - but just to be inclusive of the whole period it's the best run so far for the 50th percentile map in a 24 hour window - more likely then not it does "something" is how I like to read these

if it's an ensemble map (GEPS, GEFS, EPS), it's usually a mean or median. If it's coming from the parent (the CMC, the GFS, the EURO), it is verbatim showing what the model outputted. Different types of maps may result in slightly different outputs, as they use different formulas to decide how much snow has fallen (or stuck, in some cases) sometimes i or others post percentile maps - those are also only for ensembles. These are like the confidence maps I don't think it's that easy but I'm the wrong guy. I think they try and knock out these biases in subsequent updates but the best forecasters almost like to know the biases so they know how to correct or mentally adjust. YMMV - idk which biases are real these days I think most of us would consider EURO king but GFS has it's days (yesterday). NAM did well yesterday too... some storms seem to work out better for the American suite of models then others. the GEM/CMC and UKIE are supposedly good models but maybe not for our specific purposes.

Maybe I just pulled them too soon… being told it snowed more past those hours. You prob nailed it

Gotta smell the sleet and whatnot

Might be including a little bit of snow this Saturday in those maps?

Totals: Union Station, D.C.: 14.25" NW Arlington: 16.25"

Drizzling/melting this morning. Not sure I see any convincing reasons to bump my totals past 6”.

Radar looks more like our typical storms right now, lol. Hope ya’ll cash in overnight.