It’s a real thing. Think it did OK with the last snowstorm - shifted the heavier chances of enhanced snowfall down our way maybe a hair quicker than some other guidance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/efi2web_tp?area=Europe&base_time=202402081200&day=1&quantile=99
There was one winter where every time the MJO entered Phase 8 it snowed just like magic. Became my favorite indicator because of that and because it’s very easy to understand, lol
yeah I'm still at 96 but it actually looks snowier than the GFS. It's still faster though. Feel like slower has where the primo runs have been
maybe there is a meet in the middle that's a good outcome for us? just weenie spitballing
I've done this in the past 24 hours -- think you might be thinking this is the LR thread. I'm talking Valentine's Day. Hit the 2nd thread and we can find out if the jinx is truly magic (unlikely but not impossible) or we burn it before the real threat window
this seems like the time to do it... can't hurt to test it. We've got our best model wobbling but other things slowly trending better... it's not over but it's bleak and needs some magic.
EPS ens look a tick better just looking at the snow mean/median. Mean in DC is ~1”, median is a T. Both of those are up. Not exactly amazing numbers lol, but still trending friendlier.
It’s much improved from 00z actually. Euro continued to shift to the southern trend last night. Not surprised the GFS bounces around a bit. Is the most likely outcome we’re screwed in DC? Probably. I’d be pretty happy in Philly, lol. But it’s not over