Alright... next.
The AIFS and AIGEFS ens are still interesting for next Sunday - moreso the AIFS. Would want to see this come back on an OP run in the next couple of days to make me think we have a real chance.
I think if the Culpeper people are reporting mixing back to snow I think we might be in wintry mix mode for the better part of the morning, rate dependent. More like 70/30 sleet/snow now.
Willing to consider I don’t know what sleet looks like. Things are still flying in the air like snow but hearing more pings. Vis still noticeably fuzzier… maybe 50/50 atm?
I’d probably call it close to 5” as the sleet draws ever closer. Seeing a lot of 5” reports and remembering some genius (hah) started saying 3 days ago the only forecast for this snow was 5” of snow then sleet…
NAM kicked butt on thermals for the most part as anyone should’ve reasonably expected. I don’t know if anyone modeled the I-81 corridor flipping to sleet before DC, though
Everyone’s favorite radar mode is really holding the line just to the south of Fredericksburg in recent frames. Once it breaks containment it’s gonna race up I’d imagine but it’s fighting the good fight right now.
Setting a 3am alarm so I can take a cat nap and hopefully see some good rates. OPM closure Monday should hopefully allow some sleet recovery. Good luck, everyone! Pretty much just flurries in DC for now. Small patio table dusted.