NorthArlington101

pulling this to banter since I've had this convo too many times in the other chat - but yeah, I'm just excited to see some maybe mod-heavy snowfall. If anything sticks that's gravy - but I wouldn't be expecting that anywhere minus the favored spots. Hope I'm wrong. I kinda like the 10:1/Kuchera maps because I can know I've watched 2-3" of snowfall. That's more than fell from the sky all last year, even if none of it remains. I live in a concrete wasteland as it stands... maybe selfish but it's gonna get ugly and slushy and brown within hours unless it's a 6"+ storm with actual winter temps. There isn't any grass stickage here.

Can't tell what is high-res nonsense vs. what's real. Will be an interesting test. Massive differences on the 10:1/Kuchera/snow depth maps, which makes sense. Snow depth maps would verify the WSW you pointed out for the BR, but are pretty stingy almost everywhere else.

Regardless of whether it would actually pan out like that - super cool how it has it as rain up the Potomac to D.C. then following the Anacostia.

Would love a little more juice - around D.C. (now MBY ) the change seems to be a bit rate dependent. Could always spend the night across the river at least...

EURO holds. 10:1 Snow Depth - for the fun haters

GFS not as spicy with the trailing band but most probably still see some snow verbatim.

3k has flipped back to a snowier solution. Classic 06z head fake. [emoji6]

12k NAM goes bonkers. Best run yet. 996 off VA beach lol.

I’ve probably said this over and over… I’d love things to stick, but that’s not my goal. Goal is to have an hour or so (or more, on some NAM/GFS runs) where it is ripping and I can be on my balcony/apartment courtyard and have it feel like it can snow in this area again. That said this would stick [emoji6]

Classic 3k head fake as everything else trends better. Toss [emoji6]

You rent out your Deep Creek place ever? Or take beer in lieu of rent [emoji482]

Don’t put that evil on me. Can I own the blizzard in late January?

per chat GPT (lol) The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) and the GFS (Global Forecast System) are related, with GEFS being an ensemble system derived from GFS. In the short range, GFS tends to outperform GEFS due to its higher resolution and more sophisticated modeling techniques, providing a more detailed representation of atmospheric conditions. Ensembles like GEFS shine in longer-range forecasts where they capture a range of possible outcomes, helping account for uncertainties in the atmosphere's initial state.

Ens are obviously running out of utility, but 00z GEFS is a nice bump from 18z. Better than trending in the wrong direction.

10:1 maps worth what they are, but 00z 18z

If it's coming down at 4" an hour, it'll stick more than that too, honestly. The thing is it won't. NAM overampedness aside, both seem to pop that follow-up low in a good spot to keep things going after the temps crash to around freezing and the upper levels cooperate. That's the key for anything more than the T-1" of "snow" (outside our best spots) that all the other models are willing to say could happen, I think.

If I remember the scene right... it needs to be properly notarized, not just signed!

Deathbanded

Kuchera

At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim

On mobile, so apologies if quality is lower.

I thought you were in it for the chase anyway… take 1-2” of digital snow and run

18z EURO seemed to hold.

GFS isn't joining the NAM party. We'll try again at 0z!