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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I've noticed that its not exactly frigid. We're relying on timing and rates if anyone wants to actually measure something, especially outside our favored spots. I'd be down to see 2-3 hours of moderate snow with a slushy coating on the grass regardless though. Been a long time.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Good to know that I'm not crazy. Looking at it almost made me think we could back into something here... too bad its the NAM at 60.
  3. NorthArlington101
    3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in. Also doesn't hurt that it flips to snow faster on the 3k
  4. NorthArlington101
    Uhh.. happy hour NAM doing something exciting
  5. NorthArlington101
    FWIW - EPS is a tick up. 50th Percentile Standard Mean
  6. NorthArlington101
    Temps are never good at the surface, to be clear. 850s are good - imagine everything but the surface would support scenic snow for folks who want to set their alarms for 3-4am.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Basically identical to 06z.
  8. NorthArlington101
    EURO is holding serve with a flip to flakes at the end.
  9. NorthArlington101
    I always go by best ABV for my buck, but I'm thrifty.
  10. NorthArlington101
    12z GFS. Precip cuts off faster/isn't as intense on the backside as the NAM.
  11. NorthArlington101
    I've been straying away from looking at the means of the ensembles as they are super easily skewed. WxBell as a new tool as of this year (I think?) that displays the 10th/25th/50th/75th/90th percentile of snow accums for an event based on the ens. It's not as sexy as the ens mean, but this is first flakes for most and a "legit" first event out west. And it's improving run-over-run. EURO ens not as generous, fwiw.
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    Yeah that’s right — probably a little less, but the mean is basically useless since that one member drops a foot. This the 50th percentile. Prob more accurate sadly.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Quite the spread lol. Was hoping the individual members had like a consensus on a “T-2” event rather than a 0”-2’. Don’t think those ever work out.
  15. NorthArlington101
    GEFS also coming in improved… maybe we’ll wake up to an interesting EURO for favored zones?
  16. NorthArlington101
    Kuchera? Weak stuff. I wouldn’t be expecting anything to accumulate anyway unless I lived on a mountaintop anyway so I’ll pretend it’s all 10:1.
  17. NorthArlington101
    00z GFS was a step in the right direction. Most look like they flip to flakes.
  18. NorthArlington101
    RGEM doesn’t agree. It’s over
  19. NorthArlington101
    Well the GFS pops the trailing low, at least more than in previous runs from what I can tell, but doesn’t really seem to matter.
  20. NorthArlington101
    GFS looks like a no-go for Sun/Mon, FWIW
  21. NorthArlington101
    EURO OP and Control are outliers (more snow) compared to the ens but very slight ticks up from 00z -> 6z -> 12z for the area in general for Sunday/Monday. Better in favored spots, obviously
  22. NorthArlington101
    This was the storm where Tim Kaine and others were stuck on I-95 for ~2 days. Think there was almost a foot and a half down in SE MD/Fredericksburg area.
  23. NorthArlington101
    take a 2 run comparison of the GEFS for what it's worth but a lot more pop a trailing low this go-around.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Pretty solid 2-4” for I-81 corridor… favored spots closer by get a little something. I’m so desperate to see some snow that it might almost be worth a trip out that way if it came to fruition [emoji51]
  25. NorthArlington101
    Graupel/-SN in DC near Union Station.
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