NorthArlington101

Don’t put that evil on me. Can I own the blizzard in late January?

per chat GPT (lol) The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) and the GFS (Global Forecast System) are related, with GEFS being an ensemble system derived from GFS. In the short range, GFS tends to outperform GEFS due to its higher resolution and more sophisticated modeling techniques, providing a more detailed representation of atmospheric conditions. Ensembles like GEFS shine in longer-range forecasts where they capture a range of possible outcomes, helping account for uncertainties in the atmosphere's initial state.

Ens are obviously running out of utility, but 00z GEFS is a nice bump from 18z. Better than trending in the wrong direction.

10:1 maps worth what they are, but 00z 18z

If it's coming down at 4" an hour, it'll stick more than that too, honestly. The thing is it won't. NAM overampedness aside, both seem to pop that follow-up low in a good spot to keep things going after the temps crash to around freezing and the upper levels cooperate. That's the key for anything more than the T-1" of "snow" (outside our best spots) that all the other models are willing to say could happen, I think.

If I remember the scene right... it needs to be properly notarized, not just signed!

Deathbanded

Kuchera

At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim

On mobile, so apologies if quality is lower.

I thought you were in it for the chase anyway… take 1-2” of digital snow and run

18z EURO seemed to hold.

GFS isn't joining the NAM party. We'll try again at 0z!

Yeah, I've noticed that its not exactly frigid. We're relying on timing and rates if anyone wants to actually measure something, especially outside our favored spots. I'd be down to see 2-3 hours of moderate snow with a slushy coating on the grass regardless though. Been a long time.

Good to know that I'm not crazy. Looking at it almost made me think we could back into something here... too bad its the NAM at 60.

3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in. Also doesn't hurt that it flips to snow faster on the 3k

Uhh.. happy hour NAM doing something exciting

FWIW - EPS is a tick up. 50th Percentile Standard Mean

Temps are never good at the surface, to be clear. 850s are good - imagine everything but the surface would support scenic snow for folks who want to set their alarms for 3-4am.

Basically identical to 06z.

EURO is holding serve with a flip to flakes at the end.

I always go by best ABV for my buck, but I'm thrifty.

12z GFS. Precip cuts off faster/isn't as intense on the backside as the NAM.

I've been straying away from looking at the means of the ensembles as they are super easily skewed. WxBell as a new tool as of this year (I think?) that displays the 10th/25th/50th/75th/90th percentile of snow accums for an event based on the ens. It's not as sexy as the ens mean, but this is first flakes for most and a "legit" first event out west. And it's improving run-over-run. EURO ens not as generous, fwiw.