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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
  2. NorthArlington101
    We’re teetering on the edge of it’s over.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Fine… 8”+ then
  4. NorthArlington101
    Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios
  5. NorthArlington101
    Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands
  6. NorthArlington101
    It’s not the magic ICON run for the cities… but I assume we’d all take (tho I would travel to I-81 personally)? Even if a little reluctantly as cities flip to heavy rain?
  7. NorthArlington101
    It’s not far off being great and is awesome for many… let’s not jump too far off the ledge.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Ever so slightly more zoomed in WxBell version of the ICON
  9. NorthArlington101
    an aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell
  10. NorthArlington101
    It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there.
  11. NorthArlington101
    I'm giving this a "true, but misleading" like Snopes. If you check the next 6 hr interval (so looking at 132 at 18z), it's trended colder run over run. Can cherry pick these little shifts anyway ya really want to at range.
  12. NorthArlington101
    What I've been trying to track is the 50th percentile on the ens... so the median vs. the mean. If I remember my STAT 101 (I might not) it's a better control for outliers, both positive and negative. that said, here is the 18z. It's better than 12z in the metro, little worse out west, but it's mostly just been oscillating back and forth.
  13. NorthArlington101
    7:50ish… starting momentarily
  14. NorthArlington101
    If the storm trends badly after someone makes a thread, may the lord have mercy on that person.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year.
  16. NorthArlington101
  17. NorthArlington101
    It’s a mauling
  18. NorthArlington101
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1741867069488890044?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  19. NorthArlington101
    Tomer Berg said something to that effect on Twitter earlier IIRC
  20. NorthArlington101
    Sorta legit -SN in Tysons
  21. NorthArlington101
    Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway
  22. NorthArlington101
    not done yet!
  23. NorthArlington101
    Pretty classic RA/SN gradient but verbatim DC is fine through 135 Surface temps not technically cooperating but upper levels are
  24. NorthArlington101
    Very light mix downtown DC
  25. NorthArlington101
    Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. realize nj2 said this earlier
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