NorthArlington101

yeah, GFS runs too warm. prob subtract another 2-4 degrees of this run to run change.

probably not - but nice to know that outcome still exists in somewhere in the supercomputer's brain. FWIW, here is the snow depth map. I'd bite on 2-5" forum-wide, even in D.C. Too bad that has no bearing on the outcome

18z 12z

18z GFS is a little better than the 12z when it comes to raw snow output, at least, looking at the early maps I can get. More/heavier precip doing some cooling work I think. Go boom or go bust

it was on the globals... it was on the ens... we flagged this period around Christmas... Possibly losing this one blows and idrc what the people who pretend to come on this forum with zero emotions til the day of think. I don't believe them, quite frankly It's humbling to know we can (potentially) still lose it all in the MR. In theory one would like to think that means we could stumble into a great storm (Jan 2022?) in the mid-range too. Also nice to know that the models def don't have it all figured out... that's the eventual death of this hobby.

12k NAM has some snow showers overnight Thursday #snowtown

Mean Median

little better (mountains) or a little worse (close metro) depending where you are Mean Median

Is there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas

@WxUSAF it’s time to axe the storm thread. Hate to say it but it can’t hurt to do it

DC gets nothing - totals pick up as you go west to be a general 6-8” when you get to the mountains and I-81. Better than the GFS… maybe.

it’s like 5mb weaker than 00z. “Bomb” or bust

Not cold enough in DC and close burbs but looks good out in the 81 corridor thru 105… lp decidedly offshore

primary looks to be inland (but not that far) over SC at 99. High to the north doesn’t look as strong as I’d like but don’t think it’s going to Ohio

Tiny tiny changes - but the H over Central Canada and the LP that makes our 50/50 are both a little stronger thru 77

Most important 12z EURO run of our lives

I just lost 5” of virtual snow on the 12z GEFS

FWIW

@ravensrule can hook you up

The anticipation for each model run, along with the results of it and the subsequent analysis, is pretty darn close to my favorite parts of this hobby. When it's actually snowing is cool too, don't get me wrong, but I'm in it for the battle. So I'll parse any darn thing I can get my hands on. Speaking of which, the Australian looks OK

Honestly -- that's appreciated. Can't help myself though... maybe one day. yeah -- it does actually have a better CAD signal when you look at it going in, but verbatim DC loses <=32 temps by 9:00am and never regains them the entire weekend lol. 850s are only toasted for ~3hrs though... so would be a battle.

I've got one site stood up by Colorado State's program that has a couple AI tools, but it's a little clunky. (https://aiweather.cira.colostate.edu/) Is there anything else better that's publicly available, as far as you know? I did think someone shared a link to the Euro-related AI outputs but I've totally lost track of it

Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2".

OT: has the National Center started looking at any of the newer AI tools?

Do you understand now? Good news is we've got time for one more cycle, at least.