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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    Tiny tiny changes - but the H over Central Canada and the LP that makes our 50/50 are both a little stronger thru 77
  2. NorthArlington101
    Most important 12z EURO run of our lives
  3. NorthArlington101
    I just lost 5” of virtual snow on the 12z GEFS
  4. NorthArlington101
    FWIW
  5. NorthArlington101
    @ravensrule can hook you up
  6. NorthArlington101
    The anticipation for each model run, along with the results of it and the subsequent analysis, is pretty darn close to my favorite parts of this hobby. When it's actually snowing is cool too, don't get me wrong, but I'm in it for the battle. So I'll parse any darn thing I can get my hands on. Speaking of which, the Australian looks OK
  7. NorthArlington101
    Honestly -- that's appreciated. Can't help myself though... maybe one day. yeah -- it does actually have a better CAD signal when you look at it going in, but verbatim DC loses <=32 temps by 9:00am and never regains them the entire weekend lol. 850s are only toasted for ~3hrs though... so would be a battle.
  8. NorthArlington101
    I've got one site stood up by Colorado State's program that has a couple AI tools, but it's a little clunky. (https://aiweather.cira.colostate.edu/) Is there anything else better that's publicly available, as far as you know? I did think someone shared a link to the Euro-related AI outputs but I've totally lost track of it
  9. NorthArlington101
    Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2".
  10. NorthArlington101
    OT: has the National Center started looking at any of the newer AI tools?
  11. NorthArlington101
    Do you understand now? Good news is we've got time for one more cycle, at least.
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    We’re teetering on the edge of it’s over.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Fine… 8”+ then
  15. NorthArlington101
    Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios
  16. NorthArlington101
    Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands
  17. NorthArlington101
    It’s not the magic ICON run for the cities… but I assume we’d all take (tho I would travel to I-81 personally)? Even if a little reluctantly as cities flip to heavy rain?
  18. NorthArlington101
    It’s not far off being great and is awesome for many… let’s not jump too far off the ledge.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Ever so slightly more zoomed in WxBell version of the ICON
  20. NorthArlington101
    an aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell
  21. NorthArlington101
    It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there.
  22. NorthArlington101
    I'm giving this a "true, but misleading" like Snopes. If you check the next 6 hr interval (so looking at 132 at 18z), it's trended colder run over run. Can cherry pick these little shifts anyway ya really want to at range.
  23. NorthArlington101
    What I've been trying to track is the 50th percentile on the ens... so the median vs. the mean. If I remember my STAT 101 (I might not) it's a better control for outliers, both positive and negative. that said, here is the 18z. It's better than 12z in the metro, little worse out west, but it's mostly just been oscillating back and forth.
  24. NorthArlington101
    7:50ish… starting momentarily
  25. NorthArlington101
    If the storm trends badly after someone makes a thread, may the lord have mercy on that person.
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