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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. GEFS - less heavy for the western folks, but massive cushion.
  2. I’ve done that twice now this week - apologies for the haste. And excitement
  3. on a scale of 1-10 how worried are we about suppression?
  4. for you! Need a bit more in the metro. But very close to a great run for all… just faster now so lower ceiling.
  5. 00z ICON is a solid tick SE with the heavier stuff.
  6. Snow mean wise it’s actually a decrease, but my guess is that’s more just the max potential slipping away. Curious to see what the median is.
  7. yeah, GFS runs too warm. prob subtract another 2-4 degrees of this run to run change.
  8. probably not - but nice to know that outcome still exists in somewhere in the supercomputer's brain. FWIW, here is the snow depth map. I'd bite on 2-5" forum-wide, even in D.C. Too bad that has no bearing on the outcome
  9. 18z GFS is a little better than the 12z when it comes to raw snow output, at least, looking at the early maps I can get. More/heavier precip doing some cooling work I think. Go boom or go bust
  10. it was on the globals... it was on the ens... we flagged this period around Christmas... Possibly losing this one blows and idrc what the people who pretend to come on this forum with zero emotions til the day of think. I don't believe them, quite frankly It's humbling to know we can (potentially) still lose it all in the MR. In theory one would like to think that means we could stumble into a great storm (Jan 2022?) in the mid-range too. Also nice to know that the models def don't have it all figured out... that's the eventual death of this hobby.
  11. 12k NAM has some snow showers overnight Thursday #snowtown
  12. little better (mountains) or a little worse (close metro) depending where you are Mean Median
  13. Is there anything we can do on the ground level to make it go away? Get people to point their fans to the sky? Nuke the vort? I’m open to ideas
  14. @WxUSAF it’s time to axe the storm thread. Hate to say it but it can’t hurt to do it
  15. DC gets nothing - totals pick up as you go west to be a general 6-8” when you get to the mountains and I-81. Better than the GFS… maybe.
  16. it’s like 5mb weaker than 00z. “Bomb” or bust
  17. Not cold enough in DC and close burbs but looks good out in the 81 corridor thru 105… lp decidedly offshore
  18. primary looks to be inland (but not that far) over SC at 99. High to the north doesn’t look as strong as I’d like but don’t think it’s going to Ohio
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