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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I've got one site stood up by Colorado State's program that has a couple AI tools, but it's a little clunky. (https://aiweather.cira.colostate.edu/) Is there anything else better that's publicly available, as far as you know? I did think someone shared a link to the Euro-related AI outputs but I've totally lost track of it
  2. NorthArlington101
    Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2".
  3. NorthArlington101
    OT: has the National Center started looking at any of the newer AI tools?
  4. NorthArlington101
    Do you understand now? Good news is we've got time for one more cycle, at least.
  5. NorthArlington101
  6. NorthArlington101
    We’re teetering on the edge of it’s over.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Fine… 8”+ then
  8. NorthArlington101
    Speaking of 12z CMC, 00z sticks to that script. FRZA for favored zones. Rain for the rest. Definitely one of the worst case scenarios
  9. NorthArlington101
    Has there been a model run minus the 12z Canadian where you haven’t been forecast 1’ or more of snow? Maybe I’m naive, but I’d be willing to wager a good sum that I-81 gets a 6”+ snowstorm at this juncture. Imagine the stress you’d be feeling in the lowlands
  10. NorthArlington101
    It’s not the magic ICON run for the cities… but I assume we’d all take (tho I would travel to I-81 personally)? Even if a little reluctantly as cities flip to heavy rain?
  11. NorthArlington101
    It’s not far off being great and is awesome for many… let’s not jump too far off the ledge.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Ever so slightly more zoomed in WxBell version of the ICON
  13. NorthArlington101
    an aside before we head into storm mode: you like weathermodels? I occasionally find myself in the “free” version (weather.us) and am always impressed with the array of stuff there. I’m just so used to WxBell
  14. NorthArlington101
    It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there.
  15. NorthArlington101
    I'm giving this a "true, but misleading" like Snopes. If you check the next 6 hr interval (so looking at 132 at 18z), it's trended colder run over run. Can cherry pick these little shifts anyway ya really want to at range.
  16. NorthArlington101
    What I've been trying to track is the 50th percentile on the ens... so the median vs. the mean. If I remember my STAT 101 (I might not) it's a better control for outliers, both positive and negative. that said, here is the 18z. It's better than 12z in the metro, little worse out west, but it's mostly just been oscillating back and forth.
  17. NorthArlington101
    7:50ish… starting momentarily
  18. NorthArlington101
    If the storm trends badly after someone makes a thread, may the lord have mercy on that person.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year.
  20. NorthArlington101
  21. NorthArlington101
    It’s a mauling
  22. NorthArlington101
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1741867069488890044?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  23. NorthArlington101
    Tomer Berg said something to that effect on Twitter earlier IIRC
  24. NorthArlington101
    Sorta legit -SN in Tysons
  25. NorthArlington101
    Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway
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