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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. If we get a storm on 1/4 I'll venmo you $5
  2. tempted to post the JAWS photo looking at hr174 but I don't want to risk my already limited credibility
  3. EPS doesn’t look suppressed. It does look very marginal temp wise. Dare I say too warm
  4. @psuhoffman A thread for you: https://x.com/atlanticwx/status/1741158286026539042?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  5. I know we had this discussion yesterday about forum organization, but we could probably save some unpleasant conversations if we made a thread that covered discussion(s) for the 4th and 7th
  6. On the other hand, the Canadian is a total whiff. Vort seems to get shredded as an LP forms over the plains. GFS did that too for the first time this run, but the coastal seemed to win out. Would be curious what smart people make of it.
  7. It gets shoved offshore, but makes it to us. @psuhoffman fringed to save the masses.
  8. GFS trying to be incoming at 192 - snow spreading up through VA. SW VA getting hammered.
  9. https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1741097207221092467?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  10. I’m sure it’s several things… but it helps that the 2nd storm is a real storm with good rates. Not like it’s showing cold smoke. Fringe in the metros and 30-31 out in your spot. Boom/bust. Give us a real storm and we’ve got a shot.
  11. 00x CMC fails the Chuck test I think if I remember how it was explained earlier. Think it goes 3/3
  12. People always claim it’s better than the GFS when you look at verification scores. We certainly don’t treat it that way, though
  13. A little of the CMC up in your parts is actually on Jan 4 too. 2.5/2 so far - kinda
  14. fwiw -- 18z EPS was a pretty sizable shift to suppressed for the shot on the 4th. DC went from .2" of precip to .02" in a single ens run.
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