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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I feel like Arkansas battling the rain/snow line has little correlation to what’s causing us to flip to sleet/rain tomorrow but I guess I’ll take any optimism. It is nice to see people locally be colder than forecast. Maybe a little chillier than expected in and around the Beltway. Haven’t breached 40 yet.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I didn't realize 3-6 inches was WSW criteria. I guess as long as it could exceed 5"+?
  3. NorthArlington101
    RRFS is our best bet... and that may be the first time it's been mentioned on this forum in relation to an event. I believe it's essentially the updated HRRR... so worse things to have on your side. It's at least a #sleetbomb as opposed to rain.
  4. NorthArlington101
    I assume any hope of this basically evaporated last night
  5. NorthArlington101
    He asked me to read to the end? With my limited attention span? Big ask
  6. NorthArlington101
    I think this is basically Tomer promising a DC/VA snowstorm? https://x.com/burgwx/status/1743122848648958012?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  7. NorthArlington101
    They good at clearing the roads in Winchester? If consensus shifts toward 6”+, I might head out that way
  8. NorthArlington101
    Toggling it back and forth — that is a pretty significant bulge downward. Thanks for pointing that out
  9. NorthArlington101
    Agreed - it’s hovering above freezing. I think once the 850s are shot, it’s plain rain. 3k does the @psuhoffman thing though around 5/6pm and almost pulls the RA/SN into the Belway again. 3k is the best run I’ve seen in the last day-ish that doesn’t involve fleeing westward to see flakes
  10. NorthArlington101
    at the 850 level. This kind of stuff basically kills the thump in the cities. does it ever go the opposite way?
  11. NorthArlington101
    18z RGEM ticked better for the cities... better for everyone, really. Still goes nutso for our favored spots.
  12. NorthArlington101
    I think this matters for all of us - best chance the cities have to get on the board is a thump for as long as we can hold onto a favorable thermal profile. Hot and heavy.
  13. NorthArlington101
    the WxBell kuchera, fwiw. Little worse than 12z - just less of a thump.
  14. NorthArlington101
    just need a couple degrees at 850 to make the 3k NAM run more fun for everyone... it must at least theoretically be possible.
  15. NorthArlington101
    temps marginal and precip isn't super light... color me a bit skeptical as someone who lived in cville for 4 years and saw sig ice once despite it being modeled probably 3-4x a year. Now on the Blue Ridge itself... yeah. This seems like the kind of storm that closes the Parkway for 3 weeks... especially when you factor in a follow up next tues
  16. NorthArlington101
    NE MD pummeled
  17. NorthArlington101
    hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again.
  18. NorthArlington101
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  21. NorthArlington101
    yeah 3k is cautiously optimistic for a few hours of snow. And frankly, it's on the razor's edge for the hours afterwards. rates would do a lot -- plus a rare positive trend. We've still got ~2 days to cut temps by 1-3 degrees.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Habor?
  23. NorthArlington101
    The one thing I noticed were warmer 850s… not by much but every tick in the wrong direction makes it harder to go back in the right direction.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Snows for 15 minutes rather than 0?
  25. NorthArlington101
    I think most people are very frightened by a touch warmer at this juncture to be honest
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