USCG RS

I agree. Ian likely hit Cat 5 just prior LF, however, there was nothing at LF - in my opinion- to suggest he was a cat 5 at LF.

I'm with ya. There's definately political undertones, however, at first glance there appears to be some truth to this

Facing a Dire Storm Forecast in Florida, Officials Delayed Evacuation https://nyti.ms/3SKlqzP "But while officials along much of that coastline responded with orders to evacuate on Monday, emergency managers in Lee County held off, pondering during the day whether to tell people to flee, but then deciding to see how the forecast evolved overnight." This is pretty damming if its the whole story

No, I understand, however, the new homes should be placed on stilts. Unfortunately, the architects and homeowners have no desire to and this is where codes need to be more stringent. In fact, I do not even think codes need to be increased. What -I believe- should happen is you should be given the choice: build on stilts OR you can build how you like, however, Insurance Companies do not have to Insure the property (perhaps even the liability) on the structure. Same thing with Flood Insurance.

Honestly, building codes could work for water, however, those on the water would not want to build according to the codes which would be needed. The aesthetic would be "ruined," and/or it is prohibitively expensive to build to these codes as you would have so much unusable living space which you would need to find a way to make aesthetically pleasing, yet of no further use square footage/living space wise.

100%. Many insurance companies may be facing insolvency, which - In Florida - means every person's insurance rates (auto, house, etc) are about to skyrocket.

Unfortunately parts of Florida is most likely looking at several weeks at least. It will really depend on how terribly the infrastructure took a hit, however, I have a feeling entire Substations are destroyed. Furthermore, I wonder how hard a hit the Fort Meyers Power Plant took. Surge would have been enough to destroy quite a bit of equipment.

Emergency Manager POV Stay put until you are sure you can safely travel to your destination. Power lines can easily be renergized by improperly hooked up generators and may even still be live in some cases. Standing water may not only be at the entrance to your neighborhood. Likewise, water can be energized. Having served in many a disaster zone, you realize standing water harbors many nasty things, including electricity. Likewise, metal guard rails can be energized many miles away (over 20+ if memory serves correct) from the downed power line. EMS/Fire/LE is likely overwhelmed right now and you do not want to be another one needing help as it may take quite some time. As long as your location is safe, I would ride out inconvenience until you are sure the path to another location is safe to travel.

Unfortunately that's why mandatory evacuations are issued. We can't force you to leave, but no one is coming if/when you need assistance during the storm.

Makes me think a transmission line was knocked offline.

It can be a 2 egdged sword. Energy is neither created nor destroyed, so when a storm begins to weakened (especially if rapid), the energy from that storm has to go somewhere. In many cases it actually gives short term elevation in wind as the energy being released allows for a short term energy burst. In other words, the energy being released is partially focused through wind, which in turn creates a brief period of elevated winds because more energy than otherwise would be is being released.

This was shared elsewhere by a friend but this is truly indicative of how horrific conditions are about to be on the west coast of Florida. Combined with the copious amounts of lightning still showing up in the eyewall and the clearing of the eye on various Sat imagery, there's a good shot this hits that historic Cat 5 designation as it makes LF. To be fair, the friction of LF may just tighten this enough to do so

In theory, local emergency management has a plan for this. That withstanding, plans and execution are 2 different things. Sometimes executing just isn't feasible. 1 thing they might try though is sending emergency transport to local shelters with emergency services helping to get the word out.

This is one of the healthiest looking eyewalls I have seen on Radar in quite some time. In fact, this may rank up there as one of the better ones I have seen on radar period.

The truth is: One day it will be

I remember during Matthew (I think), we saw essentially perfect conditions for Hurricane development: Two things I remember 1) We saw continual ERCs & 2) The ERCs were relatively rapid and resulted in explosive RI after.

The way it is going, it appears to be moving for a direct hit on S FL.

Good shot at this crossing FL only to re-emerge in the Atlantic and attempt to ride up the coast.

https://longisland.news12.com/possible-tornado-touches-down-near-mattituck

Shear doing wonders..

Haven't heard wind howl like that in a longggg time. Torrential rain. Nearly constant lightning for a time.. But very little thunder.

Heck of a lightning show right now in Middle Island.

Ditto - Middle Island as well.

Temp dropped from 31.9 to 30.3 per home station.

Thanks for the answer.. I should have clarified... Thoughts on ice accums?