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USCG RS

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  1. USCG RS
    Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. Note - anyone just north of that transition line is gonna be pounded for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind. (Yes I know it's the NAM 3k, but my point about the dynamics stands)
  2. USCG RS
    Given the Baroclynic Zone to set up, I would say this shifts south. You have cold air coming in, not retreating. Likewise, as a poster (MaineJay) on another board stated: "I'll go on a little limb here. The baroclinic zone appears about 20-40 miles south of what the NAM3 has it. I'm thinking that the NAMs tick south with the 12z." This has been my sentiment for a while (he just more beautifully stated it). That withstanding, given the cold air overriding the warm SSTs, I would say this shifts south. Likewise, the BCZ will allow for better dynamics as well. I would say NYC and LI, SCT as well are in a good spot for this. Thumpy.
  3. USCG RS
    I still believe the confluence will win out here. That and the baroclynicity will push it south a bit. Where the confluence war sets up sets the stage for a good hard thump.
  4. USCG RS
    We literally had a blizzard a few years back and the days leading up were in the 40-50s and the day before was 70+ on long Island.
  5. USCG RS
    That much rain given the previously warm ground... I should be skeptical of those totals. Verbatim of course. February 2013 (Nemo) had this type of cutoff. I remember driving North on William Floyd and as I passed under the LIE, you could literally see the difference over a mile. It felt quite like lake effect snow. Oh the fun of being the literal transition zone. Those just north of that zone tend to do rather well. "You have to smell the rain." I do think Long Island could take a hard hit here, given the confluence pressing down and the avaliable moisture and energy combined.
  6. USCG RS
    Yes
  7. USCG RS
    GFS consistency does not mean it's correct. Seen that too many times
  8. USCG RS
    There's another forum that needs your unicorn appearances...Just saying.
  9. USCG RS
    OT - But is Prof. Colle still teaching at SBU?
  10. USCG RS
    Given the cold BL air mass (even if midlevels warm a bit), the threat of a glaze of ice should be taken seriously. Even a small glaze of ice can snarl traffic and sidewalks. I am not saying that this will be an ice storm, but, with how cold the BL will be, I would say a glaze of ice may be more noteworthy than normal.
  11. USCG RS
    The government is rarely effective at this type of thing (nor should they be?). What will eventually happen is that the Insurance industry will review the hardest hit areas and - if warranted - rates will skyrocket and it will become nearly impossible to obtain coverage. This, in turn, drives people to leave.
  12. USCG RS
    That legit looks like a rope tornado
  13. USCG RS
  14. USCG RS
    Happy birthday @Rjay
  15. USCG RS
    Fixed
  16. USCG RS
    100%. You, myself and others have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So..... The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front- those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white. Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions. Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. (I wrote this on the other board and tried to change it to fit this board a bit better. Forgive me if it comes off a bit disjointed - I am working)
  17. USCG RS
    I know it's been said by others, but it bears reiterating: Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.
  18. USCG RS
    I've been wondering where my yearbook photo went
  19. USCG RS
    I would say that those on LI should be prepared for an Isais (2020) redux. Winds off the deck look rather fierce and with the System going to the West while juicing (combined with what we have already seen in the SE), I would say that there is the potential for a rather significant event here. We cannot forget either, the ground is already water logged.
  20. USCG RS
    Emergency Management needs a pretty significant overhaul, but alas, that is a different discussion.
  21. USCG RS
    I doubt the law would ever be on his side... Perhaps he is looking to go after your Renters Insurance. In that case.. Let the Insurance Carrier deal with him. Theyll put him back in his place.
  22. USCG RS
    This might need to be moved to Banter, however, this reminds me of the Day After Tomorrow a bit. Of course - exaggeration
  23. USCG RS
    Where are you located?
  24. USCG RS
    When did you relocate?
  25. USCG RS
    Yeah, New England needs to pay very close attention to this. Exceedingly large wind field also..
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