USCG RS

I can definitely see what you are saying. Organized storms tend to be resilient as of late, especially all other factors considering.

While the SSTs are very favorable, shear is not. So until we start seeing this thing get it's act together and the shear relaxes, high end probabilities should be considered just that, a low potential high end.

One other thing to keep in mind - Flood damage does not normally cover personal items in basements and neither would homeowners as its flood related. Just food for thought.

This looks like it could cause somewhat substantial impacts in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. This should be watched rather closely for those inland as well.

We haven't had a true KU in a good while. I remember growing up just watching the Weather Channel for any information I could get on those storms. I may have been a geek..

New Orleans should definitely keep a very close eye on this storm. The circulation is rather broad, however, if it were to find a way to tighten, this has the potentially to ramp up rather quickly. Outlier solution in this scenario, but one that should be watched for the next 24 or so hours. Of course, if it finds a way to tighten up, this could also spare most of New Orleans to the West. Just something to keep an eye on.

Yeah, I would love to see a study performed as to why this area tends to jackpot with precipitation. Orographic in some way?

The next 24-36 Hrs look rather conducive for strengthening. LA should watch out. That withstanding, I do wonder if a quicker intensification pulls this West.

If the season does bust - I've always wanted someone to start with this: "Were scientists not fortune tellers"

Perfect open the window weather.

Side note - Always love your Write Ups. You and @bluewave

For being only a minimal hurricane, Kone certainly looks quite amazing on radar

Still a bit broad, hut this has Charlie vibes currently. No, I am not calling for a Cat 4 hurricane at LF, but Debby has a lot of fuel to work with.

This seems to be happening quite frequently with a good bit of these landfalling GOM storms.

I am with you. Track was more or less exactly where I thought.. however, I seemed to have significantly overestimated the top winds. That withstanding, I would argue that I - you especially- was not quite as far off as it would look. The energy within this storm was quite impressive and had this tightened up just a bit more, Cat 2 would have been easily hit, perhaps even high end Cat 2. As you said, 12 more hours and well...

Side note - I will say nice analysis on your part here. I truly expected this to tighten up more rapidly then it did. In this manner, I am happy to be wrong and wanted to say nice job on your analysis. That withstanding, seeing observations, I do wonder if the energy of the storm and category 1 winds across a much broader area for an extended period of time actually is causing more damage than a Cat 3 at Landfall. I guess therein lies the two edged sword. Either way, a learning experience and something to tuck into the back of my head for the future.

I see this being a major at landfall. The circulation is immediately responding to a better environment. You have a slight disconnect in the varying levels with height, but it's already beginning to tighten up. Beryl is hitting very very warm waters, including shelf waters and friction will start playing a role as well, leading to further tightening imo.

Unfortunately I still this as rapidly exploding prior to landfall. The core is resilient. The water is incredibly warm. The shear and dry air are completely abating.

Given the synoptics, this makes the most sense to me to be honest. I have been - and still do- expect a major hit on Houston.

Exactly what I have been expecting/concerned about the past few days unfortunately. This core is incredibly resilient.

Dallas.

Look at that outflow both Poleward and Equatorward already. That core is resilient and in tact.

Respectfully, I think SE Texas should prepare for a major hurricane. I pray I'm wrong but.. That core is relatively in tact and it moved over less land than initially thought. Combine that with very warm waters and South Texas really needs to be on alert.

Now that the core is finally disrupted, perhaps we can see this truly weaken.

Scanners are saying that this tornado is a MILE AND A HALF wide.