USCG RS

Interestingly enough.. Much stronger low this time around. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

In all fairness, it has showed this type of scenario 7 or 8 times in a row at this point Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Potentially. It makes the most sense to me tbh. Edit: synoptically I mean. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Slow. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Slow moving crush job. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Being honest, I don't believe the surface torches. The question will become how thick a warm layer are we dealing with. Also, if this shifts further SE (still very much in the cards. Imo), the coast is very much in play. The coast is within a standard deviation shift of a good bit of snow. This is very possible, especially with the system itself not ashore yet and the HP bringing very brutal cold. We have seen many times where cold. Is significantly undermodeled. This cold is brutal. Speed and location is still being worked out. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

For nyc proper.. Yes. Outside of NYC, different story, especially with snow on the front end cooling the ground pretty well. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Thats a 40% reduction. Perhaps you could take 50% and make it 1.25". Otherwise less than 50% accumulates. In other words it's not frz rn it's strictly rn+ Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

1.5"+ Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Fixed ^^ Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

The primary.. I highly doubt goes as far north as currently depicted. I know I keep beating this drum.. But this storm is baroclynicly driven. It's not going to just shoot north and redevelop imo. Since the temperature gradient will be pushing SE, more than likely this storm just shoots across the Cumberland Gap. This allows for colder air to truly filter in. This is why I am calling for colder / snowier conditions for the tri state. This is an overrunning event imp, not a phase or transfer. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Much closer than people think. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

With the gradient, I still believe this will be further SE. Alot of snow incoming imo. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Euro is a biblical ice storm for nyc and LI Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Verbatim that looks.like a nasty ice storm Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

The track has been steadfastly south the past 5-6 runs and within a standard deviation each run. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Im still riding it. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

But the fundamentals would support colder currently. Are the midlevels worrisome? As depicted, yes. However - and I said this yesterday- this comes down to a baroclynic gradient. The LP slamming into such a strong HP and phasing with the PV does not make all that much synoptic sense. Therefore, without the phase , this storm will ride the baroclynic gradient. This is not an LP phasing and bombing out, nothing in the n/s would show that. Therefore this is a couple of perturbations running along a stationary front essentially. In turn it allows for a considerable overrunning event. With this in mind, the perturbation (LP) is going to take the path of least resistance. This would translate to the strongest baroclinic gradient - likely SE. This HP is rather strong and it is going to shift the gradient SE as the weekend progresses, just look at how the models have trended much flatter and further S with the initial wave. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Yeah.. I'm hearing the same Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I haven't looked. But if it does... Euro tends to lock sometimes and refuse to back down. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Have to smell the rain.. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Again. Ukie makes sense. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Like the Ukie... Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I stand corrected... On both fronts. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I think sometimes the inexperienced crew comes in for the overnights. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk