USCG RS

When are we ever not at that part of the storm? Unfortunately when looking at the synoptic pattern, it is a real possibility. This LP could rather easily be punted East, especially with the baroclynic set up near the Bahamas and the confluence at play. I am not saying its correct, just saying, see what the rest of the suite does. Also, I believe it has some of the drop sonde data. Of course, grain of salt and watch the patterns emerge as well as what the rest of the suite does, but I would not simply toss. Yes.

Yes. I remember helping those in stranded on 25 get to the Wal Mart over there. It was... I couldn't utilize the responder.

Yes - they are notoriously hard to model. Both from a QPF point of view as well as placement. Mesos are best for this, but even they are not great. This is especially true because on either side you get subsidence, so you can have a narrow band of very heavy rates which just sits and either side of the band receives very little.

Somehow I found a snow shovel in the upstate... I read a couple of studies which calimed potentially 9.5-10" an hour at one point. I lived in an are on long island where that deform band hit, I would not be shocked. In fact when that storm phased, I remember that it was so strong with so much energy that the lighting was nearly constant for thirty+ minutes. In fact, either the AFD or someone reputable on one of the forums showed how there was so much latent heat release from the lightning that it actually turned the heavy snow to sleet for a bit. I believe that is correct. GFS gets a nut once in a while. Snow. In tampa. That would be somthing. When your fever dream is still less than reality... I should have moved down here sooner Keep the mojo. Im glad he is back. Wow. Side note - Weren't you in the Northeast not too long ago? Or did you just visit the forum?

Depends on how gun shy they are from last weekend. I lived through February 2013 (Nemo) in long Island. I will never forget that deformation band.. While that's extreme, this could definitely rival some of the deform bands I lived through in the NE Reminds me of dark knight storm I vote for @lilj4425 It was HM, not him that has the big daddy hat right? I sometimes wonder if Snobal from the accuwx forums is able to control important model runs

That confluence can also shunt the TPV south and perhaps it will act to capture and not kick.

Based on analogs this would make sense. But be careful, AI is going more off of historical outcomes than necessarily physics. You need both and I'm not sure AI is quite there yet. Could be right... But caution is needed. AI is not proven reliable. Granted, what model is at this point.

It's the chance of precip. 70% chance of heavy snow.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure the NAM got it right for the wrong reasons. The prevailing consensus on what I hear is that the low level cold air was so dense that it actually allowed refreeze just before it hit the ground. I saw several reports of tall trees with ZR accumulation at the top and then it was just converted to sleet at the ground. The NAM showed a deeper cold wedge and that was not quite what happened. Now, should that negate what took place and it's forecast? Honestly I'm not sure. But it still didn't quite nail it I don't think.

I mean... Blind folding a bed ridden hamster and asking them in English to step on what they think will happen probably has the same statistical probabilities of verifying. (I jest. Kinda).

RGEM tends to be deadly within 36-48 hrs (not always). Outside of that, like the NAM, it can be wonky.

An earlier digging/negative trough would force a consolidation of energy, likely closer to the coast.

Please see above What the discussion is saying is that the larger temperature gradient is over the Bahamas and therefore more baroclinicity is in this zone. Normally it's just off the coast, however, this time it's over the Bahamas. This means the greatest potential forcing and development is towards that area and therefore may be where the physics take this storm and development. Low pressures develop along (for mid latitude storms) temperature gradients. These gradients are large changes in temperature over a short distance. This causes a spin to develop, especially as warm air is forced to rise and cool air is shunted to the ground. That change in temperature causes a vertical wind shear and allows the potential energy between the temperatures to be converted to kinetic energy, allowing a low pressure to form and allowing the low pressure system to vent itself as the shear creates a bend back in heights (as an LP develops it needs venting so the pressure can be evacuated - this shear aids in that through concentrating each LP in each layer of the atmosphere at a slightly different horizontal placement. Essentially as you go through h85/7/5, the LP in each layer is west of the LP below it. This allows venting of the storm). So the models are picking up that the energy potential is greater in the Bahamas and if that's the case, the baroclinicity over the Bahamas may rob the energy from the LP attempting to develop along the coast.

There are a ton of vorts around. So, a ton of energy. Models are going to have trouble resolving this and while globalist are good to smooth things out, Mesos will need to truly sort these out. This could go boom and capture back west or it could consolidate East. Yet another tough forecast.

So my wife and I had this conversation this weekend. From a Risk Management point of view, Mets, OEM, Risk Management, etc made the right call. Granted, there is a lesson to be learned regarding communicating potential pit falls. That withstanding, the right call was made from a professional point of view, even though we were wrong with regard to impacts. Yet, the public is very frustrated (which to an extent is understandable). I even had some texts from associates stating that this is why preperation and risk management is useless in this country: persons who are in this profession (OEM, Meteorologists, etc) tend to be alarmists and make other persons spend money they otherwise would not have to which if they simply never prepared, they would have the money to respond when a disaster finally does take place. Then there are the comments where persons state mets simply alarm persons for the money to be injected in the economy. Now what is likely to happen is that this storm will hit, meteorologists and others will be "gun shy" and then the public becomes even more frustrated. It's a viscious cycle, especially for broadcast mets and the NWS.

Even in construction, I see AI eventually making inroads. Unfortunately(?)

Congrats to her! Close to South P? And yes, the world really is small.

Always nice to see you

I'm sorry to hear that :/. I'm glad the fever broke though.

How you feeling?

SBU early 2010s

I have been contemplating the AI models, some of which appear to be doing pretty well, granted it's a small sample size. That withstanding, I wonder if these models are going to start exploding in leaps and bounds because they have the physics programmed with the learning of patterns by real world data. In other words, the physics are like other models, with real world learning and data that traditional models aren't able to ascertain. It's almost like creating a meteorologist with access to data human minds could never hold. Makes me wonder if these models might actually become relatively reliable...

Out of curiosity... Which SUNY?