USCG RS

So, during Nemo (Feb 2013), when the two streams actually phased, there was so much volatility and upward motion that it created a significant amount of lighting. This led to so much latent heat release that thunder snow turned to thunder sleet for nearly an hour. It was not the layers of the atmosphere, it was the actual lightning causing the snow to melt and then it refroze before hitting the ground. I always found that fascinating.

I have always loved the EPO as an indicator for snow in the NE. I will take a -EPO over just about any teleconnection.

This honestly feels like when I used to live in Long Island. Have family in MB - reportedly a mix

Simpsonville actually is not that bad...

As long as it shows us with the most snow**

Should have moved with me down South

Some of us were born old.

If someone had a picture... We would all be really thankful.....

Not with this storm. No.

You appear to be right on the cusp. Given the pattern and movement, I would not be surprised if you get a moderate hit.

Weather is a fickle mistress

New Orleans is getting crushed.

Depends. The impact of additional storm sampling depends on several factors. When a storm traverses a "no-man's land," such as the central regions of Canada, or enters from the Pacific Ocean, additional ground-based observations can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This is particularly true for storms with high potential energy and complex dynamics, where sampling plays a crucial role. This need for enhanced data is why Hurricane Hunters are deployed for both tropical and mid-latitude cyclones. Conversely, when a storm moves through a populated area with an abundance of existing data sources, additional sampling typically has a minimal impact. In essence, computer models rely heavily on data quality—better data inputs lead to better outputs. Therefore, when data is sparse, targeted sampling can greatly enhance forecasts. However, when data coverage is already robust and the storm's behavior is less volatile, additional sampling tends to yield diminishing returns.

Given the way things are going, I would say there is a good chance the trend if not finished either. The current synoptic set, combined with how juiced the LP appears to be already, I would venture to say this is going to trend NW still.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/triangle-sandhills/weather/2024/01/24/24-years-since-record-snow-storm-for-central-nc

Eric copying me... On a serious note - it is nice to see that he thinks this is a potential real trend.

Given the current changes in models, I would not be surprised to see significant changes in the 00/06z runs. Not saying there will be, just would not be surprised.

I am pretty good at SAR (Search and Rescue)... This has to really dig, to provide a good hard hit for C GA North and into the Upstate of SC and W NC. That withstanding, it will be a good idea to watch the latent heat release of the storms in the Gulf overnight and into tomorrow morning. This will give a good idea of if this storm is really digging or not. Kind of like the JAX Rule for the Northeastern United States. If the storms are really firing, the latent heat release will help to pump the heights further NW and I would then expect that areas N and W of S GA and E NC and SC to be in the game.

That is... and it is simply based on orientation. Given that, I would say that a jump NW is still quite possible. I would not count C NC, C SC and parts of the Upstate or Triangle out quite yet.

Apologies if this should be banter - but the 757 has always been one of my favorite aircraft.

What type of aircraft do you pilot? That is a significant difference from a small change in the orientation. Hi Res Models should begin to pick up on this in the next 12 or so hours if true. I do wonder if the orientation, extent of the Artic HP/front is being ingested. The Euro can be rather slow in changing at times. It can be very consistent, but like the GFS, also consistently wrong.

I think it has just been a hard few years for a lot of folks, and the weather has also been rather, well, adding to frustration in various aspects. There are some very good posters on here, and on the other forums, and the large storms do bring them out.

Suppression, likely leading to much less stream interaction would be the problem for much of the Carolinas being dry and cold... no? Don't tempt... Just dont tempt.

Whatever does fall will stick, at least on grassy areas. If at night, then it sticks everywhere. The sun does here is quite something. Last week is was 28/29 with ZR and the blacktop was still wet.

This, if able to verify, would be quite catastrophic for that area. ZR predictions are always very, very fickle though. Alot actually has to go right for ZR to occur and then to actually accumulate as well.