USCG RS

OKX Discussion hinted earlier that any storms which develop will be moving slowly - around 5 knots - and likely redeveloping. So the thinking appears to be that any strong storms/heavy rn which develops will be training over specific areas.

The pop and buzz of a very close lightning strike is something you never forget.

This is downright dangerous tbh

Liability

While I cannot comment as to that, I can definitely say that all the particulate in the air could allow for thunderstorms to pop up as the particulate is providing the platform for cloud formation. In fact, I wonder if the thunderstorms of yesterday were enhanced by all the particulate in the air.

Picture is of NYC (from a friend).

Excuse me. I'm getting my 12-15 inches. The Ukie storm Vista map said so

That's a foot of snow for my area.

Miller B was/is the biggest warning sign here imo It's still possible it develops early (even now)... However... I am rarely a fan of Miller Bs

For the second wave, I would be more worried about sniffing Cirrus than rain

I would not want to be in charge of that response. Nope.

Which one?

This about sums up my feelings rn.

I personally do not believe that we have seen the southern extent of the wintry wx yet. While the NAO is not necessarily flexing, it is still stronger than many of these models are viewing.

While I understand the sentiment, this is where the art of weather forecasting truly shines. This pattern is different than what we have seen all year. While there is always the potential that it winds up being a poor solution, what must be remembered is that every storm is technically different. For example: Someone driving a motorcycle does so at 120 MPH every day for 10 years thinks that nothing will ever happen to them. It is familiar. They have never had an issue. It is the same thing, road, view, and so on every day. The issue is that the world -like weather- is random and chaotic. Today, the ice storm from six months ago finally presents a crack in the road, or a random pebble is deposited by a car passing through. Or a stick falls because of a 10 MPH wind that finally exerts just enough force to break the branch and it falls onto the roadway. This defect or obstruction in the road was never there before. It is a small defect or obstruction. Most would never even notice it. Yet, nonetheless, it is a defect or obstruction which today will cause a drastically different outcome for the driver. Wx is the same way. One little perturbation can change the entirety of the outcome. This is why pattern recognition is necessary, but complacency is 'dangerous.'

The battle rages over LI, but it looks like LI wins this round...

Honestly - I would not be surprised if WSW are pushed further south this evening or overnight (as the storm begins). There is a significant amount of energy with this system and High Res models continue to show rather strong h7 dynamics.

The NAO is flexing. Likewise, I agree that the NAM tends to overdue mid level warmth. As far as a thump, h7 actually looks pretty primed over the metro area. It appears we are becoming the battle ground, which bodes well for higher end snow for the area.

I said NYC still got to play those cards... Maybe NYC is Kenny Rogers this year