USCG RS

Given the resilience we have seen as of late with these storms once they are developed, I would lean towards models showing them either holding or a slower weakening trend over the ones showing intensity dropping off a cliff. Developed storms tend to hold together more often than not. Not to mention that models have the weakening happening in the final hours. Any delay and the intensity holds longer. Another thing to consider is the fact that the interaction which causes the shear will likely greatly expand the storm and the footprint thereof. Rough situation all around.

People who were hit by Helene need to prepare as if they are going to suffer another hit. While odds are lower at this time for that, the risk is too high given the current state of infrastructure for those recently affected by Helene. Everyone from Western and Northern Florida up through the areas affected by Helene need to begin making plans today for what and how they are going to react should their area become one that will be significantly affected. This includes those in areas where the moisture fetch from Milton may affect them. The rain event which affected the Western Carolinas before Helene even came close set the stage for the disaster in the Western Carolinas and Milton may not be all that different. The NHC has already stated the storm may significantly grow in size as it approaches landfall. Others like @purduewx80 have shown how this has a potential to track NW of current landfall projections. This is a potentially catastrophic situation. Again. It must be treated as such unless and/or until it can be definitively ruled out.

11AM ET NHC Discussion excerpt: "The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials."

You'd be surprised how many people use forums like these for information. That includes people who have very limited internet right now. As such, I say let's keep the non weather related opinions, theories, etc in banter. We all need to think about the fact that these forums do actually have a very real world impact, especially for those already crippled from Helene and looking for information on Milton.

This looks to be a potentially large storm again. Furthermore, those just hit need to closely monitor this, if possible.

Voted!

Unforunately, yes there were.

No... No, of course not. Apologies if my tone was misinterpreted here. I was more just piggybacking off of the comment.

Unfortunately, this looks'good' compared to the western portion of the state and, of course, WNC. Some areas are literally just... Gone. There's no other way to put it. It's... Indescribable.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It's a measure of energy for hurricanes. In this context it adds to overall index for the year (officials keep track of all energy produced by tropical cyclones each season) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2003/August/background_information.html#:~:text=Measuring overall activity%3A The Accumulated,Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index

Please keep your phone charged and on ring. Verizon is setting up a temporary cell tower in Asheville today. There is a chance he may be able to get a call to you. Just wanted to ensure you know about it. There are no words otherwise.

I have been an emergency manager, first responder, medic, rescuer, risk manager or some combination of these for over 17 years. I have been through many deployments, storms, calls, etc. I have never witnessed this type of widespread devastation and catastrophe stateside. Ever. This includes living in NY though Sandy. It's sobering. That's not to say there have not been comparable disasters in United States history. Likewise, we will all get through this, of this I have no doubt. However, I say it again, it is truly sobering what is/has taken place across the Southeast.

Electricity and cell phone signal is simply gone in those areas. Same with upstate SC. I am just south of Greenville City and starting to get some cell coverage back, but Greenville City and NW up through the Mountain areas - it might as well be as if there is no infrastructure right now. I know comms for OEM is struggling and same with all rescue personell. This was a harder hit than expected, even given the warnings. The good news - at this time - deaths are not as high as initially feared at this time yesterday. Unfortunately, long way to go.

At this point, when Helene makes LF, it will still be strengthening. Like Michael appeared to do, we may actually see this storm strengthening over the first interactions with land as well.

That energy/Latent Heat release is.. wow.

Unfortunately. The friction of land actually looks to be assisting with with helping this gets its final act together.

A poster (I can't remember/find it a few pages back) literally just posted this link about a Hurricane Hunter in Hurricane Hugo - https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/articles/hunting-hugo-part-5 Uncanny.

Those warnings the GSP NWS Office was providing were something. I don't recall ever seeing language quite like that out of the NWS, at least to the public.

I won't derail the thread with this, so I won't say anything further after this - but you would be surprised what some teams will brave in an attempt to resuce persons.

And now, if something goes terribly wrong, a SAR team is put in danger. Lovely.

Yeah.. I was questioning my call of 150 MPH at LF I made yesterday or the day before. I think its a distinct possibility. Becoming almost likely at this point and that is just going to cause more problems inland as well.

I will pass that along. Thank you.

Yeah the Greenville/Spartanburg Area is on full alert right now. Red Cross has all hands on deck and the local AHJ is - concerned.

Can you link this? I can't find that exact image and I would like to send it to some peeople. Thanks. Edit: Nvm. Finally found it. Thanks though.

From Michael Fischer