USCG RS

Thoughts on accums?

I think the tri state is going to have to watch for the potential of Zr. Pretty ripe set up for ice imo.

Yeah, I've said this elsewhere. Models tend to erode surface cold too quickly and not quickly enough for upper levels.

31F/~1". Side streets just started becoming covered. Middle Island

If I got a got through that class... I promise you can as well

Yup. This was the meso LP the models were picking up on yesterday.

There is still good bit of precip to go for the metro and LI. That meso low looks to be providing just enough lift to give the area some potential issues. Going to need to be careful for the next few hours.

Coast is going to have to be careful here. SR Mesos seem to want to try and spin up a weak LP. If the cold front is far enough off shore, it could actually enhance precip just enough to provide some icing...

Fog eats snow like a hungry linebacker after practice. I have seen fog legitimately wipe out snowpack of over a foot inside of 3 hours.

I think this actually has a higher ice accretion potential than many are giving it credit for. Low level cold air is going to drain down to the coast pretty well while the mid-levels are likely going to remain torched. We still have a considerable snowpack on the ground, and even with rain it's not going to completely disappear. Likewise, the cold air really means business here. I was originally thinking this would be either rain or snow for the area a few days ago, but I am genuinely concerned about a good bit of ice accretion here.

Transmission lines going down is a grid issue.

With ice accumulations for the tri-state and into SE upstate NY. Granted the FV3 is more bullish otherwise.

12k NAM ended up looking similar in the end, no?

Good.

This is something the GFS -in theory- should do better with, as much as I really do not like that model. That withstanding, I thought the TPV would win out, but the SER is a bit stronger than previous runs and this means the tri-state area is right on that ZR line. Not a good look rn and the metro looks to be square in the crosshairs.

A generator would not be a bad idea either. Unfortunately.

More than likely.

Of course.... I just do not trust soundings at this range, especially given the set up.

To me - the odds favor either plain rain OR snow, at this time. Long way to go.

It appears that a crippling ice storm is going to hit part of the country. Fortunately, the tri-state area looks to be in better shape - for now. Given the strength of the HP, I would not rule such drastic SE shifts as the 06z at this time.

You know this will never happen. Ever.

Without the double barrel low... What could have been.

Wow.

This would have been destructive if it had, tbh. I'm not exactly sad it didn't, even though I kind of am. If that makes sense haha

@Rmine1 What @jm1220 said, in picture form.