USCG RS

Fixed

100%. You, myself and others have said this before - meteorology is the recognition of weather patterns and using of models to help make forecasts. Models are not the end all be all, as we all know. So..... The overall weather pattern is not conducive for snow for the I-95 corridor from Southern Connecticut on Southward. Now, just because weather patterns are not conducive does not always mean the areas outlined will do poorly. That withstanding, as has been mentioned by myself and others, there is a high likelihood of either rain or a prolonged period of white rain for the I-95 corridor. The reasons for this is mainly due to the lack of cold air. The high pressure setup is not truly funneling cold air into the I-95 corridor. The high pressure extends from Southern Canada and into the Western Atlantic. This, in turn, will allow for easterly winds off of the Atlantic for the coastal areas. Therefore, as the storm is developing, it is likely to bring the relatively warm boundary layer air from the ocean and into the coastal regions. This setup is normally conducive for a coastal front setup, which - while enhancing snowfall rates to the northwest of the front- those on the opposing side are relatively warm and wet not white. Of course, sometimes mesoscale features can and will trump the macro scale features. However, what I believe the models are seeing is this area of intense lift that will be generated, yet I do not believe they have accurately reflected boundary layer Temps for the coastal regions. Just something to keep in mind and to keep your expectations tempered. Of course, there are other potential flies in the ointment, however this is the largest threat I see to the coastal regions at this time. (I wrote this on the other board and tried to change it to fit this board a bit better. Forgive me if it comes off a bit disjointed - I am working)

I know it's been said by others, but it bears reiterating: Cautionary note: The models have consistently exhibited significant forecast discrepancies, even within a 12-hour window of the event, sometimes resulting in variations of approximately ±7 degrees or more. The current atmospheric conditions pose a concern for areas in and around I-95. While it doesn't rule out the possibility, it's worth noting that the high-pressure system extends into the Western Atlantic, making it less favorable for channeling cold air toward the I-95 region. In fact, the setup is conducive to the opposite effect, allowing eastward winds into the coastal areas and bringing uncharacteristically warm air from the ocean onto land. This presents a challenging scenario, particularly for the coastal sections. Just a point to bear in mind.

I've been wondering where my yearbook photo went

I would say that those on LI should be prepared for an Isais (2020) redux. Winds off the deck look rather fierce and with the System going to the West while juicing (combined with what we have already seen in the SE), I would say that there is the potential for a rather significant event here. We cannot forget either, the ground is already water logged.

Emergency Management needs a pretty significant overhaul, but alas, that is a different discussion.

I doubt the law would ever be on his side... Perhaps he is looking to go after your Renters Insurance. In that case.. Let the Insurance Carrier deal with him. Theyll put him back in his place.

This might need to be moved to Banter, however, this reminds me of the Day After Tomorrow a bit. Of course - exaggeration

Where are you located?

When did you relocate?

Yeah, New England needs to pay very close attention to this. Exceedingly large wind field also..

Again - Interests along the EC should be monitoring Lee. To those who expect definite answers in this range, you all have been here long enough to know the game. Just saying.

No one on the EC should be writing this off right now.

Personally, I will go with there is a long way to go and the eastern seaboard, especially N MA and NE need to keep an eye on it. Likewise, I will actually disagree with you regarding the potential for RI. I do believe it is there as the structure is actually not bad, despite the beating it has taken. Just my 2 cents. As far as you having an agenda?

Going to be a rough ride for them. Hopefully no embedded tornados for them this time.

Absolutely perfect outflow.

So Bermuda is safe.

Thanks for weighing in. It is always nice to be able to learn from those who are the professionals.

I believe the difference on radar and IR imagery is where the deep convection has wrapped. The deep convection is beginning to swirl the hurricane and the IR is showing where the physics of the beast is setting up. The eye that has cleared out is pinhole. It is concerning that IR Imagery is showing that, despite the fact that radar has not quite caught up. If radar is able to catch up, well really, if the thunderstorms themselves are able to wrap tightly around the eye as to where it is cleared out then we are going to have a potentially catastrophic situation on our hands. I don't use catastrophic lightly either.

NARRATOR: The GFS was acting normally....

I see you are in Tampa. I would personally prepare for the worst and make plans in case it looks like you need to move further inland. While I personally do not believe this will be the case, it would be foolish -in my opinion- not to be ready in case something like this took place. One just need remember Charley in 2004.

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility.

I am. You're right. Regarding the EM Workspace, there is a rationale behind it, although it might be a bit premature. --) To begin with, there are specific operations that need to be gradually discontinued. These winding-down operations do take time, but they also allow for the minimal required personnel to be present. --) Airlines can ensure that none of their aircraft get stranded there if developments unfold rapidly. --) This approach reduces the risk of individuals being trapped and guarantees that if the situation takes a negative turn, there won't be a last-minute rush at the airport, which could lead to people being caught there as the storm approaches. --) It enables the airport to swiftly open up for emergency operations and planning. --) Let's not overlook the matter of liability...

Surge is what kills the majority of persons in Hurricanes