USCG RS

If the mid levels continue to warm up... I want the lower levels to as well. Id rather rain than ice.

Inside 24-36 hours the NAM tends to be very good with thermals

Weaker storm = northern steam more dominant. That could.. Could ..put many out of the game

Part of the problem is the AO and NAO are racing/spiking positive. Even 24-36 hrs ago it didn't look quite as a dramatic a change. As that happens, there is nothing to slow the storm down and the trough doesn't orient negative nearly as quickly. Teles changed significantly the past couple days. Without these blocks - no proper trough orientation, no chance to gain strength and no stream interactions down the line. This is part of what the models are seeing IMO.

Looks to me like the large change is where exactly this closes off. The 18z was an absolutely perfect spot for this entire subforum. The 00z not so much. Given that this is global and six days out, this is actually a pretty good spot to be. Side note - Winds would be pretty significant here, but with no HP to the NW, the wind threat is not quite as high as it could/would be. Still something to watch nonetheless.

This started on CoViD -

I think people are just burned out tbh. Basically, lets laugh at hope because of how much crap has gone wrong combined with dashed hopes.

I mean, this thing came out of nowhere. Did any models even have anything like this remotely happening?

Depending on the crane it can take 3-10 days to fully dismantle. Many times they are to be allowed to swivel (ie, left in an unlocked position). Unfortunately that does not normally work for Cat 2/3+ type winds

Unfortunately, this was a known hazard which could not be controlled in the time frame provided before Milton. https://www.fox13news.com/news/st-pete-construction-cranes-could-pose-threat-during-hurricane-milton

Stay safe.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=TBW&wwa=tornado warning

It certainly appears to be attempting to clear out the eye yet again.

"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/082359.shtml?

Man, thats a lot of lightning in there. Makes me wonder if we about to go down the rabbit hole again..

It is pretty simple, if you are in the cone of uncertainty and on the shore/in a flood zone, your life is in danger if you stay. If you choose not to evacuate and you are in one of these areas, write your name and social security number on your forearm in sharpie.

@Moderately Unstable Would likely be a good person to answer this

We actually saw this with Hurricane Matthew. Made me ponder if ERC are actually a sign of a healthy and optimally functioning storm. The storm would go through the ERC, expand in size and increase in strength in a rather quick fashion.

I agree completely with this statement.

This, IMO, will be the larger potential issue and needs to be taken much more seriously than it currently is.

Given the resilience we have seen as of late with these storms once they are developed, I would lean towards models showing them either holding or a slower weakening trend over the ones showing intensity dropping off a cliff. Developed storms tend to hold together more often than not. Not to mention that models have the weakening happening in the final hours. Any delay and the intensity holds longer. Another thing to consider is the fact that the interaction which causes the shear will likely greatly expand the storm and the footprint thereof. Rough situation all around.

People who were hit by Helene need to prepare as if they are going to suffer another hit. While odds are lower at this time for that, the risk is too high given the current state of infrastructure for those recently affected by Helene. Everyone from Western and Northern Florida up through the areas affected by Helene need to begin making plans today for what and how they are going to react should their area become one that will be significantly affected. This includes those in areas where the moisture fetch from Milton may affect them. The rain event which affected the Western Carolinas before Helene even came close set the stage for the disaster in the Western Carolinas and Milton may not be all that different. The NHC has already stated the storm may significantly grow in size as it approaches landfall. Others like @purduewx80 have shown how this has a potential to track NW of current landfall projections. This is a potentially catastrophic situation. Again. It must be treated as such unless and/or until it can be definitively ruled out.

11AM ET NHC Discussion excerpt: "The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials."

You'd be surprised how many people use forums like these for information. That includes people who have very limited internet right now. As such, I say let's keep the non weather related opinions, theories, etc in banter. We all need to think about the fact that these forums do actually have a very real world impact, especially for those already crippled from Helene and looking for information on Milton.