USCG RS

Watch how the convection in the South progresses tonight into tomorrow. This will be a good indicator of what's coming our way Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play. All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This is basically the same physics as thunderstorms, just with bitterly cold Temperatures. The baroclynic gradient setting up is rather intense, yet initial temperatures are cold enough for this to be snow? Correct? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This is an OEM nightmare scenario tbh Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Evening commute for the tri state area (nyc/nj/LI) one squall, likely becoming a bit larger as it traverses the tri state. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

As an emergency manager, I tend to agree with you. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

That's a heck of a sounding Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

In all honesty though, Weather tends to be cyclical. The mid 70s was pretty good for nyc in terms of snow, the early 80s not so much. Then we switched to a bit more snow and then the late 90s and early 2000s were horrific and then we switched again. That being said, my crow is delicious. Yes, I'm still eating it from the weekend. I have leftovers for days. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I would not be surprised at this solution tbh. But a ways to go. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

And if it is that amped, I would worry about it running inland no? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Damn. She's actually kicking East towards the delmarva/VA region. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Yeah. I just believed that the cold air would be strong enough to lead a non phasing storm to want to follow the temp gradient across the Cumberland gap towards the delmarva. As I noted on another board, in the loop I posted, you can see the attempt to bend toward the VA area and then close up and shoot NE. That being said, the warmth is most definitely impressive. I will go over this storm and learn from it and hopefully be better prepared for others like it. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Located? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-09-96-1-25-1&checked=map-mslp-glm_flash&colorbar=lst LP moving into E PA and HP retreating NE. Looks as if my ship has in fact sunk. I will eat my crow, and lots of it @Ericjcrash as I said I would: Nice call on rain for nyc and LI.

Sorry. Let me clarify as I quickly responded at work. What I meant is that if the LP in VA were to become the primary one, the surge of warm air would become muted. I have not looked at surface analysis and I was going of njwx85 because I trust his analysis. That being said, if the primary remains the primary this will not take place. Apologies, I should have had this caveat before Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Eh. I guess we all. Know I'm riding this down with my ship Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Would mean the r/s line should retreat south. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Also.. Can you provide the picture. I can't seem to get my phone to load it on the website. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This makes sense to me tbh.. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Perhaps models finally catching onto the cold air. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Imo this is a very plausible scenario still Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Don't be so defensive brother, we know where you stand. If you are correct, I will be happy to publically congratulate you. Likewise you have been steadfast with your forecast, and that's admirable. At this point, we can all agree to disagree and see what happens. (for the record, take the tone as friendly. I hate how tone can be misinterpreted via text) Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I do not believe we are done moving south yet. Even the NAM tends to underestimate CAD. Likewise, she's going to take the path of least resistance. To me that's the Cumberland gap, delmarva region, not through NJ and just south of LI Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk