USCG RS

Nam looks like some rather significant changes at h5 Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready. To do so I suggest  Fill up you gas tanks. Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze. If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze) If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills). Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days. Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication. Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone. Have warm clothes handy. This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety.  Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Let's see if the Ukie holds and shifts further south. I believe it will. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

It says@rjay quoted me? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Yes sir. I have said this about the ukie for the most part. It has not been too grabby except for last run where it had a bit of interaction and was able to grab a bit because it's outrunning the cold a bit. I know I've put my cards on the table before. I just agree. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

It has been transitioning earlier. Also the NWS likes to issue warnings with a good lead time. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

To me it looks to be how the model is transitioning the CCB to a DCB Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

You mean behind it? Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

That's because the LP was just E of you and therefore you were on the backside and mid levels had cooled. S CT was still having warm air flooded in mid levels as it was just North of the LP. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This storm is moving along the temperature gradient. If the storm outruns the cold, the temperature gradient is displaced further NW. In turn, the storm rides the boundary further NW. Thus.. Less snow. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

If this continues to speed up, it out runs the cold, thus the gradient shifts NW Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

But we won't [emoji1787][emoji1787] Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Also. The Euro and NAM have both shifted significantly South the last two runs for the storm affecting the area tonight. There's nothing to say this won't happen with the storm Sunday. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Yes. And not making synoptic sense always. I have not dissected this run yet, but last night it had the Vort max in Texas jump from W to E instead of rounding the base of the trough. I'll look later.. But as you said, from initial looks it's jumping at h5 a good bit Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Interesting. Still... It keeps right about 35 even as the LP goes right under LI, in some ways muting a true torch (granted it would be rain verbatim). Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Even at its closest pass (straddling the south shore of LI) it keeps most of LI around 33-35 degrees. That's a big signal imo. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Step towards the Ukie. Though verbatim that's a torch. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Im saying it's a model depiction. I believe thr Ukie has the right idea but it's not there yet. I don't believe this is a transfer situation. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I don't believe this transfers. I believe this is truly baroclinically driven. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I still believe that this ends up as more snow for the region than we think. I believe the LP does not make it up to Pittsburgh as shown verbatim, for reasons I've laid it before. Now.. We wait and see. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Yeah. I'm guilty of this here. I didn't look at the LP in the frame before it scoots to the delmarva Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This is true.. And I am wrong. Apologies. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Albany GA is 150-160 miles north of where LF was. Though the storm was still packing cat 2 winds, it was nowhere near LF Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[mention=16501]sandysurvivor[/mention] if you would like to discuss your assertion in regards to Sandy and Michael, I am willing to in here

Strength- true. With regards to SE , the placement of the low has been within 50-75 miles itself for the most part. Edit: I also believe the strength is due to the model honing in on the true temp gradient that will be in play here. Therefore.. Pushes it further SE and gives it a good boost of strength. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk