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poolz1

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Everything posted by poolz1

  1. poolz1
    Will, go on TT and look at the GEFS 850 anom from 6 days ago and compare to the current look. It didn't do a bad job. But the glaring difference between 6 days ago and now is why we track every sw as long as it takes a decent track. A sneaky high nosing in, a ns wave that wasnt modeled ushers in cold enough air etc... The hints of a transient 50/50 out at D10-11 can throw a wrench in that look if it gets some legs over the next few days.
  2. poolz1
    Agreed that it just a matter of time and this is a great sign for winter in general. But, the airmass is respectable...just no block to lock in the high. Dews 12 hrs before precip are in the low 10s high single digits. Just need to adjust timing on either feature and we have a decent thread the needle event. Looks like 12z GEFS.
  3. poolz1
    Compared to 6z, 12z GEFS show a nice step in the right direction for the 28-30th timeframe. Obvious signs of a low coming out of the gulf and more of a HP signal to the north. Even bit of a CAD showing up.
  4. poolz1
    No doubt a very long shot with this one. But long shots are better than no shots especially with the LR look on the ens. The ICON switched to this idea and the GFS to some extent as well. Wait n see....
  5. poolz1
    Monday is still changing. Ji noted yesterday the possible interaction with a N stream piece that would offer cold enough air to support snow. A long shot since the storm is on its exit as whatever cold is coming in. But, the 12z suite so far has introduced the idea that a secondary storm may form and have the time to interact. I just keep thinking about how much the last storm changed on the models when we were in the 4-6 day timeframe.
  6. poolz1
    21756 12/11 -.5"
  7. poolz1
    Recorded .5" here but my house sets at a pretty low elevation along a creek. Looks like a general 1-2" once you get above 6-700'. If this airmass could have been just a respectable one...
  8. poolz1
    33.7/32 Mod snow. Slushy accumulation on elevated surfaces.
  9. poolz1
    Rain/snow mix. 36/34
  10. poolz1
    Have a pretty consistent westerly component to the wind now. 55.6f at 4pm and 51.8 currently.
  11. poolz1
    If anything, Sunday looks like an interesting weather day. A few GEFS and EPS members look like the Euro op. Obviously, a long shot and probably not many interested in cold chasing warm especially east of the BR. But hopefully this storm at least marks the end of our boring weather streak.
  12. poolz1
    Great explanation. Much appreciated...my comment about the PDO truly was a question. Wasn't trying for a doom and gloom post, just an observation.
  13. poolz1
    MJO is forecast to fade into the null phase out of warm phases and shows no interest in amplifying. SOI hovering around 0 the past week or so. Nino seems to be asleep when it comes to influencing the PAC pattern. Until something changes the -PDO will rule the PAC i guess?
  14. poolz1
    And is why we usually drip drip drip a few days after a big storm. Just like the h5 post from PSU yesterday about the mid-nov storm in 87. The plot was the day(s) of the storm. But leading into that storm had a great pattern....the day of not so much. Early in the winter season so far but the varying pattern makes me thing we shouldn't be surprised about a surprise.
  15. poolz1
    I thought the 06z gfs showed some promise for the Dec 5th period. Instead of one bundled lead wave it has a follow up wave that digs and a taller ridge on the west coast. A little more separation and maybe that run could have worked for us? Sure would be nice to track something...anything.
  16. poolz1
    Let's get the digital snow thread cranking. You would thing we would start seeing threats in the LR on the ops here soon. That WB NAO is just a thing of beauty. Maybe a bit of patience is needed? D10-15 with a PAC that seeds some Arctic air into the pattern may really kick things off.
  17. poolz1
    Seeing the Pacific pattern just continue to reload is beautiful sight. A little gun-shy after last season but starting to get the feeling we are seeing the winter pattern start to take form. SPV still doing its yoga moves late in the period this run as well.
  18. poolz1
    It is interesting that it seems like the op runs have been leading the way with the advertised HLB especially in the NAO domain. Getting there with each run but all 3 global ops have had some impressive blocking the past few days.
  19. poolz1
    I have no expectations after what we have dealt with over the past 3 years. But, here is just a week snapshot from mid Nov 2009. We were staring at a horrid Pac and no real signs of life on the Atlantic side either. We had to wait another 3 weeks until we started seeing positive signs.
  20. poolz1
    Have you ever tried replanting those suckers? I have had pretty good success with them as long as they are in the 2-4" tall range.
  21. poolz1
    This is the product I use. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BSKJLBRJ?ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_product_details&th=1 My tomatoes do have blight but it doesn't seem to want to creep up the entire plant. or, at least at a much slower rate than years past. Typically, by september my tomatoes are done but I am still picking as of this morning. Maybe just having healthier plants give them the ability to be more durable when it comes fungus/disease? Or, maybe the hot dry weather lately (out this way) is the answer? Or maybe it was the low soil moisture in the early spring the past two years? Or... Ha! I'll be too old to garden by the time I get this hobby figured out!
  22. poolz1
    I have always had significant issues with blight and other diseases. Wet years, dry years, didn't matter. I did lay straw in my beds but but had to limit this because it increased the slug issue. Last year I tried an organic fish based foliar spray and it has been a game changer....at least for me. A weekly spray has improved the leaf color and fruit production on all our plants. Two straight years of a different gardening experience will keep me using it. Until some other issue crops up! lol
  23. poolz1
    Maybe a nod towards the GFS with how it handles SE Canada? Hopefully the GFS starts to bleed toward the Euro.
  24. poolz1
    Same obs here as well. Maybe it is just wishful thinking but with the look of radar and current dryish air I am feeling a bit more confident in something other than a slushy coating. I guess we will know in the next couple of hours.
  25. poolz1
    Not bad and probably realistic the way things stand now. Would be nice to a slow tick south with that initial "nose" of WAA precipitation.
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