WxWatcher007

West trend was overdone but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be east ticks from here to landfall. Windshield wipers could tick a touch back west too. I'm still thinking landfall between New Haven and Westerly, RI. Sorry Long Island, you don't exist to me.

Looking at visible and IR can be instructive, but on the ground data is the best kind of data and that's why I'm more focused on the current structure/recon than trying to project out 24-30 hours (which is fine for others to do, I just like watching this stuff evolve). Even looking at IR and visible, it's the best presentation of Henri I've seen so far.

Pray for me today as I try to talk tropical as people cancel the incoming storm.

Whether or not it is designated right now is semantics, yes. But I'm trying to illustrate that this isn't as disorganized as some seem to think. Watching intensification can often be like watching paint dry, so it's really important for folks to not become a prisoner of the moment. It is gradually organizing and it is not a leap at all to think that in 12 hours or so it would be an 80-85 mph hurricane, which is in line with the NHC forecast. Based on the data I see, I do not think Henri is underperforming the forecast so far.

Here's the center sonde that confirmed the 993mb pressure. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 21st day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 33.5N 72.6W Location: 206 statute miles (332 km) to the SE (126°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -60m (-197 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 925mb 629m (2,064 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.5°C (72°F) 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 850mb 1,365m (4,478 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.3°C (65°F) 255° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 700mb 3,028m (9,934 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) About 9°C (48°F) 270° (from the W) 5 knots (6 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 11:25Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.50N 72.56W - Time: 11:25:20Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.51N 72.55W - Time: 11:30:08Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 245° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 993mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 993mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.3°C (65°F) 766mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) About 12°C (54°F) 718mb 15.4°C (59.7°F) About 8°C (46°F) 703mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) 9.3°C (49°F) 697mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 993mb (Surface) 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 977mb 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 945mb 210° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 924mb 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 893mb 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph) 870mb 245° (from the WSW) 12 knots (14 mph) 850mb 255° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 776mb 260° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph) 767mb 250° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 755mb 275° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph) 747mb 245° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph) 735mb 245° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 697mb 285° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph)

Additional unflagged 60-63kt SFMR and 60-62kt FL wind data coming from recon mission 9. This is extremely close to being a hurricane.

8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 21Location: 33.6°N 72.7°WMoving: NNE at 12 mphMin pressure: 993 mbMax sustained: 70 mph

First VDM shows a 996mb pressure and elliptical eye shape Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:40ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 10:06:37ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.26N 72.72WB. Center Fix Location: 212 statute miles (340 km) to the SE (131°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,050m (10,007ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 230° at 31kts (From the SW at 36mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20° to 200° (NNE to SSW)G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical milesG. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the SSW (197°) of center fix at 10:05:33ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 291° at 43kts (From the WNW at 49.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix at 10:02:56ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:08:19ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 81° at 33kts (From the E at 38.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:09:04ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) from the flight level center at 10:02:56Z

Heh, right after I say that--unflagged 60-65kt (60,61,63,65) SFMR with 60-63kt FL winds by Mission 9. That might do it.

I think going to town is unlikely too, but I'd probably still give it about a 20% chance FWIW. There is still a fair amount of space left for intensification. Maybe on the eastern side. It wouldn't take much to get over the threshold but they still need to sample that part.

Second recon plane (Mission 10) finds an extrapolated pressure of 991.7mb while flying at ~10k ft.

No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today. For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification. Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out.

We have the center dropsonde from the early recon flight (Mission 9). Pressure looks more or less steady from last night, maybe a few mb lower given the wind at the surface. That flight is now heading for a NW to SE pass. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 10:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 10Z on the 21st day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 33.3N 72.7W Location: 211 statute miles (339 km) to the SE (130°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -37m (-121 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 996mb (29.42 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 230° (from the SW) 31 knots (36 mph) 925mb 652m (2,139 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 21.6°C (71°F) 225° (from the SW) 19 knots (22 mph) 850mb 1,391m (4,564 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.4°C (65°F) 285° (from the WNW) 15 knots (17 mph) 700mb 3,053m (10,016 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) About 8°C (46°F) 65° (from the ENE) 8 knots (9 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 10:06Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.26N 72.72W - Time: 10:06:33Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.26N 72.70W - Time: 10:11:11Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 32 knots (37 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 695mb to 995mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 31 knots (36 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 996mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 949mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 917mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) 20.8°C (69°F) 850mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.4°C (65°F) 773mb 15.8°C (60.4°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 750mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) About 11°C (52°F) 695mb 13.2°C (55.8°F) About 8°C (46°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 996mb (Surface) 230° (from the SW) 31 knots (36 mph) 953mb 230° (from the SW) 32 knots (37 mph) 943mb 235° (from the SW) 28 knots (32 mph) 931mb 225° (from the SW) 17 knots (20 mph) 892mb 250° (from the WSW) 18 knots (21 mph) 865mb 265° (from the W) 13 knots (15 mph) 850mb 285° (from the WNW) 15 knots (17 mph) 799mb 285° (from the WNW) 24 knots (28 mph) 787mb 275° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph) 779mb 285° (from the WNW) 10 knots (12 mph) 763mb 265° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph) 695mb 65° (from the ENE) 8 knots (9 mph)

The second low level recon plane is now descending into Henri.

This is really where recon earns their keep. IR and microwave can only tell us so much. It's the real time observations from recon that can tell us what's really happening. Really interested to see how much tilt there still is and whether the features we see are working their way down to the surface.

Recon finds extrapolated pressure of 992.4mb from ~10k ft flight height. Dropsonde would confirm surface pressure.

I use two sites. Look for Mission #9 as that's the one in the storm now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA2-0908A-HENRI (for recon location imagery and graphics) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi (for detailed text data)

First recon flight of the day descending into the storm now. I'm watching 1) has the tilt been eliminated 2) has the wind field contracted and organized into an inner core and 3) are the FL winds that were impressive last night starting to translate to the surface as a result.

Yeah let me get in before the flood of storm cancel posts that we know are coming... IR can be deceiving, as I hope we've all seen the last few days. Despite what you think you see on first glance this morning on visible and IR, under the hood microwave imagery shows a more organized storm, with much less tilt and another attempt to form an inner core. Henri has been trying to do this the entire time, but the difference now is that with lessening shear, the attempt is more likely (though not guaranteed) to be successful. Yesterday This morning it's still very fragile just based on this imagery. You don't see the deepest convection fully wrapped around and until that happens this attempt at organization could all still collapse, but it looks ok at the moment.

Seeing guidance windshield wipe isn't terribly surprising. That's pretty common from what I've seen with tropical. Heck, it happens for winter systems too. As for recon, I'm not sure what they saw on radar but when examining the area I didn't see anything that stood out.

Hopefully recon can check it out.

Very interesting VDM Maybe an eye trying to form deeper in the convection per recon. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 3:28ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 7Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 2:59:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.04N 73.60WB. Center Fix Location: 248 statute miles (400 km) to the SSE (153°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,417m (4,649ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:49:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 52kts (From the SSE at 59.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:47:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24kts (27.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:19:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 37kts (From the NW at 42.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 3:13:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 1:32:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SECONDARY EYE-LIKE FEATURE VISIBLE ON RADAR 48NM SE OF FL FIX

Yes on both counts.

Meanwhile, Grace has become a major hurricane.