WxWatcher007

97L was designated as having a high chance of development earlier today by the NHC, with 70% odds of development in 5 days. Some guidance is bullish on intensification chances in a few days. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Peak season is approaching and it's looking like it in the Atlantic, with three named systems (Fred, Grace, Henri) recently and more likely coming in the next week. Invest 99L was designated today by the NHC and although it only has 60% 5 day odds, the guidance in totality has a very strong signal for TC genesis, and more concerning, a very conducive environment for development in the Gulf should the system organize sufficiently. Let's begin a more targeted discussion. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

It’s not over lol. Patterns reshuffle. The general look September and October will probably feature a return to the ridging that allows for some CVs to get further west. Yeah. I think there will be a little more MDR activity than last year because of the favorable MJO and eastern MDR environment which favors more instability IMO (despite SSTs), but I think when climo shifts to the homebrew regions in late September/early October it’ll be red hot.

Not much sleep to be had through most of October.

I think we get one more threat, but that’s all speculation. I do believe some of the models showing anomalous SE Canada ridging which obviously was just critical to our landfall. Unsurprisingly, there’s a greater chance of impact in the US there are more TCs, and I don’t think numbers will be an issue this year, even with a cooler MDR than some recent years.

Henri delayed it, but soon I’m going to get my annual peak season forecast out (Aug 20-Oct 20). I’m as bullish as I’ve ever been which is nuts because the last few seasons have had extraordinarily hot peaks.

I did drive down to RI at the start of the day, but yes, the top 5 river flood was basically down the street

Just following up on yesterday, it’s been really awesome to see so many reach out to inquire about my content, especially in the last year. I’ve gotten so much better positioning myself and documenting wx. Years ago it was just me and an old camera but now I’m capable of doing so much more. I sometimes wish I had more time to put into it but I know I’m doing a lot already. Can’t wait to hit the road again.

SOON

Radar actually looks pretty good out in western CT. Someone might get smoked today.

Wow. Ten years ago I was sitting in a law school orientation when all of a sudden the ground shook. I looked at my cup of water and it was vibrating like Jurassic Park. Still surreal lol.

Just responded. Thanks. No real damage. Though one of our main roads is covered and idk about the nearby homes because it was getting dark. River has come up about another half foot since that video and the flow increased by 600cfs. Wish it were daylight lol.

Here in EH? Labor Field.

We had two top ten floods last month and this blows them away, both in height and flow. Crazy.

Top 5 river flood event taking place here in town. The river went from 3.42ft 24 hours ago to 11ft tonight. Gauge height beats 1955.

Top 5 river flood event taking place here in town. The river went from 3.42ft 24 hours ago to 11ft tonight.

The Today Show reached out to see if I'd give them one of my videos to use, but they wanted to use it across NBC platforms forever. When I told them they'd have to pay for a license like that, they deleted the request. They know better.

Dang. I should have reached out. Definitely wanted to catch the wave action.

Yeah--I haven't looked until now, but that looks like the one to watch.

Did I never change the thread title to acknowledge Henri's former status as a hurricane? Oops

This is WxWatcher007 reporting LIVE from home! The hurricane streak of 30 years in New England will continue, as Henri weakened on final approach and kept strongest winds right at the coast. Normally I don't chase unless there's a hurricane, but with it being so close I made an exception and went down to the RI coast, just south of Westerly to intercept the "core". About a half mile from the beach I had to turn back as flooding on roads became widespread. Shortly after the roads became impassible so I made a good call to stop. I caught the strongest winds in Westerly and intersected the heaviest in CT on the way home. Overall a decent chase. Definitely nerve wracking when driving through roads that are passible but clearly starting to flood. I go for the wind, not the water. The Boston Globe and Weather.com reached out to use some of my footage, and it's good to see my chaser rep continue to go up lol. Finally, soon it'll be time to talk tropical again. The guidance is hinting at development in the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf in a week or so, and as @poolz1 posted, a very active peak of the season is coming. I'll be putting out my peak season forecast in a few days. Enjoy and thank you all for your support!

That's one of the things I love about tracking tropical. I've been doing it since I was a kid and while you have a lot of data available to you, sometimes it's more chaotic. I will say though, the intensity forecast from the NHC wasn't that bad. I think at their peak they had a 90 mph storm, but when it struggled after the shear the forecast went down to I believe 80 mph. We knew it'd weaken on final approach and it did. Globals were not nearly as good with intensity. I thought there was about a 20% chance of Henri overshooting the forecast when I saw that cyan ring on MW yesterday, but it could never fully close off an eyewall. While you can be steady state or gradually intensify with a partial eyewall, it's very hard to be a significant TC without a fully formed eyewall. I'm usually hurricanes or bust but because it was so close I went down to RI to chase. Wish I could have gotten to a beach.

If a CV monster walked through the door we'd still have some posters downplaying, complaining, and calling bust as the the Great Hurricane of 2024 obliterated power grids and sea walls

Hard to not be IMBY centric when most of our passion for wx comes from experiencing it. It's just something to live with here. But on a global scale, winds fell short. Decaying TCs are like that. I thought the duration of the event would compensate for the weakening but it didn't in the wind category. Rain TBD for some areas.