WxWatcher007

I wonder what they will find on the NW to SE pass. The SE side has consistently had the strongest FL and surface winds. Wind field does good better generally from what I see so far. That October storm was one of the most incredible things I've ever seen. I was lucky to never lose power, but people just a few blocks over lost it for ten days.

I hear ya. I don't think a lot of people trust them to be prepared.

984.0 mb extrapolated on that recon pass.

Thing is we've had so many big extended power outages you can't blame us if we have a lot of concerns with that. Eversource is already priming us to get ready for another round depending on how bad this is.

He's out in Utah now, but we still collaborate at SCW. I know I probably talk about wind too much to some but I hit hydro hard last night in the first call and hitting it even harder tonight in the final. That's always been my biggest concern.

Oh man, how could I forget. Good times. Bun me good sir.

God rest his soul. No I'm not. Just pointing to the possibility that there's enough of an inner core to organize at a faster clip. I don't think that's too far out there as virtually all the guidance has some deepening over the next few hours. I'm not calling for a 2 or 3 lol.

I knew I'd get a weenie for that post

With the caveat that recon would be an even better indicator, the eye of Henri looks pretty good as it begins to cross into the Gulf Stream. It looks circular with convection (albeit weak) wrapping around it. You can also see fast low level motion that may be indicative of a tighter and stronger wind field. Of course, we don't know if winds are mixing down or if the pressure is dropping, but it looks good. If crossing the GS can pop some hot towers and evacuate some of the residual dry air, it could quickly improve in presentation and organization in the few hours before reaching cooler waters.

Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights

Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission.

Super early advisory out from the NHC.

The weenie in me would take option 1 all day. Far more impactful to have the flood and the wind, though I won't have power for a week lol. Thanks. I'm still think landfall between New Haven and Westerly. Last night I said Old Saybrook for the precise location. For inland I'd probably put peak gusts between 45-55 mph.

As we wait for recon, I think it'll be important to see how much tighter the wind field has become and how strong the inner core is. Remember that in prior recon runs the strongest FL winds were well to the SE of the center. Really need those winds being close to the center.

We kid, but in all seriousness, Henri is actually about to cross into the Gulf Stream and from there will have a little runway before temperatures drop off sharply. If it's actually going to do anything interesting, it's now or never. Especially with an apparent cyan ring.

Recon is finally descending into the open wave, I mean Henri. Henri? Are we back to Henri yet or is this still Mehenri level?

Nailed it. We are the Jets of tropical wx.

I'm kind of like Josh at this point where I can't get enough of it. When I measured 56kts down on Long Island for Isaias I was pretty stoked, then I got into the eyewall of Laura a few weeks later. There's really nothing like it, and yes I know I'm insane lol.

You're killing me Nice. 63kts on the ground is nothing to sneeze at.

To quote @mappy, I cackled.

I loathe each and every one of you My thoughts haven't really changed much after the midday guidance for CT. Maybe I'd go a bit lower on inland winds, but I never thought we needed higher end gusts to create a high impact event because of a combination of heavy rainfall (my main concern), already saturated soils, and the duration of wind gusts. With the center likely to pass over CT I think it's going to be windy everywhere, but obviously worse at the shore and closer to the center before full on decay. Heavy rain, coastal flooding/surge, and enough wind to cause widespread power outages.

I may quit tracking wx altogether after what I've been subjected to How some of you come back year after year to talk about snow chances is beyond my comprehension

More prayers please as I may need to self reap soon. I never realized that this is what y'all inflicted upon one other for months on end during "winter".

Still a fair amount of spread on the 12z GEFS