WxWatcher007

I don’t know why my wife took that picture of me. I am retired!

I doubt we see a name at 5pm. Looks like a PTC to me as I don’t really see a tight low level center based on recon.

Recon en route Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later today. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven

Like last summer. Went from drought “concerns” to weekly flash flooding. Elsa, Fred, Henri () and the big dog—Ghost of Ida.

This is pretty significant. This is about as aggressive a forecast you can have.

Not following terribly closely, but shame you couldn’t get on that Scranton cell. It looks nice.

You and Wiz need a trip to Kansas.

Yeah, it’s totally unsurprising an early season system struggles with shear. Been a while since we had June eye candy.

I never even realized he was a poster

Go ahead and start it!

Absolute torch here.

First cherry of the year. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Brown/Bucci

The outrageous launching pad has made this the hottest day of the year imby lol.

Sky filled with the incessant sound of sirens as motorists skid on 3-6” of green powder and into ditches?

21/10/5

DCA: 99 IAD: 99 BWI: 100 RIC: 102

Loving the avatar change, as always.

Looks like that’s becoming increasingly likely. Should be a nice rainmaker. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Papin

Something’s likely coming, and it’s likely to be sloppy (mostly) fitting with climo. It’s unclear whether the system will stay out to sea after Florida. I’d lean that way but still a lot to figure out. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Papin

Warm but beautiful day to honor the fallen. Love to see the Memorial Day parades come back.

For the stargazers among us. There’s a link to the original weenie AMS post.