WxWatcher007

That McLaurin kid is good.

Enjoy. Study abroad is a great opportunity and experience.

College study abroad? Does it snow there?

The signal has been on the guidance for the better part of the week for an upper low to interact with a wave and create a broad system. Steering pattern originally looked to bring this into the East Coast, then recent guidance kicked it out to sea, and now there seems to be a bit of a split between OTS (favored IMO) and some type of retrograde. With an invest declared and guidance really focusing on development now, it's time to discuss. So discuss Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port Arthur, Texas. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Roberts

https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-connecticut-fall-foliage-20210913-zycetqgzhjbkvawi2lvzw4vir4-story.html

I don’t blame you. It’s slop. Edit: thought you were talking about the current orange lol

Nicholas adds to the count. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (6) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

We've been tracking this one for days now and the NHC has designated it an invest as it rolls off the African coast. This one could be a long tracker, but there's a split on guidance (as expected) with its long term future. The environment looks favorable in the short to medium term for development and intensification, but it is unclear what will happen if it interacts with a TUTT as it gets closer to the Antilles. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The IR appearance looks impressive, but there's till a bit of disorganization near the surface. The current center is still on the edge of the deeper convection, and on radar you can clearly see a well defined area of spin within the deepest convection to the NE. Could be temporary, but worth watching.

Agree. If the center is really reforming north along the edge of that convection as recon seems to be finding, that could help spur a period of more consistent organization.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Nicholas is not yet a well-organized tropical cyclone, with little evidence of convective banding features on satellite imagery. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center is still not very well-defined, and appears to have reformed again, this time farther south. Data from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. This is above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Nicholas will be traversing very warm waters during the next day or so, and within a moist, unstable atmosphere. These factors would favor strengthening. However, moderate southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico could be an inhibiting factor for strengthening. In spite of the shear, the GFS model forecasts the system to strengthen while it nears the Texas coast. The official intensity forecast is at the upper end of the current model guidance. Given the uncertainties in the future strength of Nicholas, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of the Texas coast. The current location of Nicholas is quite uncertain since the aircraft-reported center position is within a broad area of light winds and is well south of most of the deep convection. Although the fixes show little motion this evening, based on the model predictions, it appears likely that the center will shift or re-form significantly northward as early as Monday morning. This is at least partially accounted for in the latest NHC track forecast, but some northward adjustments are possible over night. The storm is expected to move toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours or so. The track guidance and the model consensus has shifted eastward somewhat since the earlier advisory package. This has necessitated an eastward shift in the official track, and a northeastward extension of the watches and warnings. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 22.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Steering pattern generally would support a close approach/threat if something could make it to the SW Atlantic in about ten days. Agree this is one to watch should it develop.

LOL

Recon has entered the invest. Looking for evidence of a well defined LLC. Some FL and SFMR readings are already over 34kts.

Agree. At least as it stands right now it looks like it's way too broad to develop quickly, and just meanders up the coastline. Where have we seen that before... Only caveat is that we're still a few days out before something actually develops so we casually watch to see what the trends are, if any. I'm more bullish on 94L. I didn't think that it'd kill more people than in LA, but once the WPC was talking high risk for rainfall, I knew something big was coming. A WPC high risk tends to be reserved for some of the all time precipitation events.

Recon heading toward the system now. They’re not wasting any time with this one.

That looks like a recurve to me but like you said, 10 days away. If that weakness isn’t there that’s trouble.

Guidance still doesn’t do a hell of a lot with it and now the GFS tries to kick it before it ever even makes a true landfall. Like Tip said yesterday, until we see something form we bide time.

I still regret not chasing that blizzard. Epic event.

Literally above average to well above average in every single relevant category.

All four areas I referenced last night are now highlighted by the NHC. Happy peak! Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. 1. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized in association with a tropical wave located just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 4. An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. 1. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Don’t know the exact number but it’s somewhere around that.

The odds for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico has continued to increase, and the NHC has designated the disturbance currently over southern Mexico as Invest 94L. This one will need to be watched as it traverses the historically favorable BoC and skirts northward along a ridge toward the western Gulf. Shear and land proximity look like potential limiting factors, but 1) this is likely to be a significant rain maker in TX/LA, and 2) If land interaction is reduced early on it could intensify at a faster rate. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. 1. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.