WxWatcher007

I loathe winter tracking so this is my regular season. Agree about the ensembles but they lead the way to the “right” solution more often than not.

Unless the ensembles make a notable shift, these op runs are just pretty to look at and wonder what could be here.

I still caution that at this range all the operational stuff is still weenie fodder, but heh, it's something to talk about for a few hours. Show me the ensembles because the GEFS are not budging.

The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too. At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there

NHC says in their 2pm that they may start advisories on 99L later this afternoon. Finally a little homebrew Also, regardless of how this 12z run ends, this is a pretty interesting Euro run. Still weenie fodder at this range though.

Likely to become our next named storm as it has increased in organization. Perhaps a system for Maritime Canada? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph north of the low center and additional development into a subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Yes we can

That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up. THE SWEEPER Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492.

I’m offended you’re not talking about the imminent grid collapse that Sammy will bring to the northeast.

Cape Verde. Basically the part of the season where the majority of the tropical activity comes from waves that form near Africa.

So far…expect Sam to add some ACE to the total.

That one was a really extraordinary turn of events. From an easy recurve pattern (modeled) to stalling over NC. This far out, the operational runs are just weenie fodder IMO. Fun to look at but that's about it. The ensembles will really give you a sense of where things stand in terms of modeled track, though it should be noted these will shift and can shift dramatically one way or another at this range too. I wouldn't look at the long term stuff on the models, 6+ days out, as whether a model is right or wrong. At this stage, I'd watch for the larger steering environment players and short to medium term environment for potential intensification to get a sense of what's possible with regard to track and intensity.

That's very impressive considering that just a few weeks ago that region was barely above normal. Everything has lined up for an extended CV season.

Regardless of the eventual track, it’s going to be very cool to watch this thing take off over the next two days in the MDR. For all those that have been waiting for this part of the MDR to look like the peak periods of yesteryear, get your popcorn ready.

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 23Location: 11.1°N 39.7°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 1000 mbMax sustained: 60 mph

All good, just messing with ya. Thanks for starting the thread.

EPS would still favor a recurve at this juncture. Very nice animation of it here.

I don’t really care about the D10 low location. What matters to me are the players on the field. So while the actual run isn’t particularly close verbatim, all I really need to see is the SE Canada ridging and possible cutoff. It’s there for now. Let’s see what’s what when it gets to the Antilles.

That’s still very close with ridging over the top and cutoff to the west. Very very close. Yeah. Ensembles will be interesting. Not calling for a landfall lol but anomalous SE Canada ridging and a cutoff are fairly significant red flags, even at this range.

Quite a close call for the northern Antilles on this euro run.

Every time I start to preach the gospel of the GFS being better than the euro on tropical, it does this

Totally agree. This will be a major. Chaos when I don’t start the thread

Hey there, Sammy.

Better than the recent slop.