WxWatcher007

So many people whined yesterday when they only saw a 2mb an hour drop…the gradual organization was just setting the stage for overnight. Intensification is a process, and this is about as impressive a period of RI as you’ll ever see.

Should be a number of them down there. Will hate to miss this one but the calendar just didn’t work for me this time.

Setting the O/U on the term “annular” being used at 3.5 hours. One of the most hilarious moments I’ve seen on AmWx

Here's the full VDM. As @Bostonseminole notes, the eye is closed and circular. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 21:40ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:13:29ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.13N 87.08WB. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (480 km) to the S (178°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,867m (9,406ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 225° at 10kts (From the SW at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 21:07:15ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 91kts (From the SE at 104.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 21:06:07ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix at 21:18:16ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 297° at 63kts (From the WNW at 72.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix at 21:17:45ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 21:06:07Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SEC MAX FL WIND 75 KT BRNG:042 deg RNG:67 nm

Agree here. Would be good to see what the other quadrants look like.

970.4mb extrapolated pressure on the center pass. Unflagged 90kt FL wind and 79kt SFMR peak wind.

Recon is descending into the storm now, looking like they will do a NE to SW pass first.

Unlike Henri, where the guidance really struggled at the beginning and end, it’s really interesting how lockstep the guidance has been from pre-genesis to post landfall. They’ve even shifted in lockstep. Maybe it’s because of how dominant the ridge plays in the steering pattern. Verbatim the GFS and now euro have a legit remnants event this week.

BIG rain signal

Thanks everyone. Good turnout with 39 participants. Three late entries but nothing too late. Six participants forecasted maximum intensity above Cat 5 threshold Three participants forecasted maximum intensity below Cat 3 threshold Seven participants went with 125mph at landfall while 6 went with 150mph at landfall. 130mph was the median. The median pressure was 942mb Morgan City was the most popular landfall location (7) Good luck all!

I got you two in. It was still 12.

Contest CLOSED Thank you to all the participants

Apologies for the banter mods but last chance for everyone to enter their forecast in the contest. Closes in 14 minutes.

There is an eye, confirmed by the recon vortex data message (VDM), but it is not fully closed off. Hard to get big intensification before that happens. Gradual strengthening can happen though, especially on the NE side. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:24ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:57:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 85.93WB. Center Fix Location: 252 statute miles (405 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,959m (9,708ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (65.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SSE (153°) of center fix at 13:48:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 236° at 57kts (From between the SW and WSW at 65.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSE (154°) of center fix at 13:50:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:02:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 51° at 59kts (From the NE at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 12:31:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center

Latest VDM still has the eyewall open Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:24ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:57:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 85.93WB. Center Fix Location: 252 statute miles (405 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,959m (9,708ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (65.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SSE (153°) of center fix at 13:48:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 236° at 57kts (From between the SW and WSW at 65.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSE (154°) of center fix at 13:50:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:02:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 51° at 59kts (From the NE at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 12:31:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center

As @Weather Will posted, there’s still a signal for a heavy rain event somewhere in the mid Atlantic or northeast. It looks like a robust low coming through. Still far out, but it could bring a rain and severe threat if it sets up right.

Yep. It’s organizing, but the intensification is lagging a bit. For now at least. Pressure (extrapolated) looks to have fallen modestly on the latest pass. Also shameless plug: less than two hours left for everyone to enter their Ida forecast in the contest. There’s a separate thread for that.

It’s still taking its time to intensify, as we can see with the wind field, despite the clear organization trend. No rapid intensification for now. IMO the delay only further diminishes the already low chance that an ERC would take place close to landfall.

It took a bit of a hit but it’s certainly looking more robust on IR the further away from the coast it get. Once it aligns it’ll be off to the races.

Spaghetti charts just because Increasing likelihood of a good rain event inland from this.

I started out with a PTC, then went to a weak TS, strong TS, hurricanes and then the major last year. Starting with the weaker stuff allowed me to compare notes and learn from mistakes, which made my higher end chases safer and cheaper. I still will chase strong TSs like Isaias last year and Elsa/Henri this year if they are close and have a significant chance of being a hurricane at landfall (Elsa and Henri had hurricane warnings but fell short). Otherwise it is hurricane or no go at this point for me.

So much can go wrong, all in a split second. It sounds counterintuitive since you're doing something most people find crazy lol, but in any chase and especially a high end chase you cannot bring someone that doesn't have good judgement and excellent risk assessment ability. Most people don't fit that bill let alone kids.

Yes. There's no way I'd bring children to a hurricane chase but what do I know.

Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): 135 mph Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): 135 mph Pressure at Landfall (mb): 940mb Landfall Location: Due S of Morgan City at Atchafalaya Bay

I suck at putting together contests but this should be straightforward lol--predict what Ida will do in four different categories. Closest forecast in each category will be the winner. The deadline is 12pm EST Saturday. Edits can be made in posts until that time. Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): Pressure at Landfall (mb): Landfall Location: